Third phase in the Gaza war

Alaa Al-Mashharawi, Tuesday 2 Jul 2024

Speculation is growing about the third phase of the Israeli war on Gaza, including a plan to divide the Strip into 24 mini-zones, writes Alaa Al-Mashharawi in Ramallah

Third phase in the Gaza war

 

As Israel’s brutal war against Gaza enters its tenth month, its stated goals — eliminating Hamas and freeing the Israeli hostages — remain out of reach, while the Israeli political and military establishment is in turmoil and the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) are mired in a war of attrition, claiming mounting tolls among personnel and equipment.

Many observers believe that the increasing play being given to Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s plan to divide Gaza into 24 zones is less of a plan than a sign of desperation.

“It is doomed to fail,” said Ayman Al-Raqab, a professor of political science at Al-Quds University, to Al-Ahram Weekly on the plan that Gallant unveiled during his recent visit to Washington.

This plan, part of a vision for the “next day” after the war, is said to be supported by the Israeli government and IOF. It calls for the creation of 24 isolated cantons in Gaza where Palestinians unaffiliated with Hamas would reside temporarily while the IOF eliminates the remaining resistance fighters outside these areas.

Political analyst Nidal Khadra explained that the plan was the fruit of brainstorming sessions among unofficial groups of retired military officers and military and political think tanks tasked with coming up with proposals for the “day after”.

The basic idea is that “Palestinians willing to denounce Hamas would be allowed to live in fortified areas guarded by the IOF and be given bribes in the form of aid and the right to rebuild their ruined homes,” Khadra told the Weekly.

“The Israeli military and security agencies would work with non-Hamas Palestinians to establish isolated cantons in northern Gaza, in parts they believe that Hamas does not control. The Palestinian agents would be put in charge of distributing aid and other civilian duties.”

According to Khadra, the plan also calls for the creation of a special US-led committee to oversee implementation. This would deploy an international force made up of troops from Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and Morocco, which would be responsible for security while US forces would be responsible for logistics.

Gradually, control over the zones would be transferred to a Palestinian force, after undergoing special US training.

Creating the entities is a means of geographic and demographic engineering, according to Raqab. The aim is to facilitate the occupation’s management of the Strip by handpicking Palestinian agents whom the occupation could turn into political representatives at a later point.

However, “this will never happen because no Palestinian party would agree to do it as it runs against the Palestinian national, tribal, and political makeup,” he said. “It’s unfeasible, a complete flight of fancy.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains bent on continuing the war until he achieves the total defeat of Hamas. He has made three pledges to the Israeli parliament the Knesset: to assess the situation of the Southern Command and closely monitor the progress of the fighting; to develop a plan to complete the Israeli war goals so that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel; and to ensure the safe return of evacuees from northern and southern Israel to their homes.

Political affairs expert Tamara Haddad believes that Netanyahu has no incentive to change course since prolonging the war is the key to his political survival. As a result, he summoned the commanders of the southern region to discuss the “third phase” of the war while the US and EU scrambled to contain mounting tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border to forestall the outbreak of another full-scale war.

According to Haddad, the third and presumably final phase of the Israeli war against Gaza will see a sharp reduction in the scope and intensity of military operations as they transition to special forces operations.

However, the third phase will last considerably longer and for Palestinian civilians the conditions will be extremely harsh. “They will be crammed into tiny enclosures in the Strip for years while the IOF continues its pursuit of Hamas,” she said.

The Israeli newspaper Maariv confirmed the Israeli political campaign is expected to shift to what it termed “Phase C” or the third phase after the Rafah phase concludes. Citing “sources familiar with the details,” the Hebrew-language newspaper reported that the next step would take the form of precise raids by the IOF throughout Gaza.

A recent report by the Israeli Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper does not offer Israelis the assurances they are looking for regarding the political and military capacities of Hamas. Hamas has been able to recruit hundreds of new fighters, it said, also publishing video footage confirming that Hamas is still manufacturing weapons.

Citing an Israeli Army spokesman, the newspaper said that the IOF’s operations in Shujaiya in northern Gaza testified to Hamas’s ability to recruit hundreds of fighters and pay them.

It said that it had become apparent after a few days of fighting in the renewed offensive against Shujaiya in northern Gaza that Hamas had successfully re-established its presence there.

Commenting on such reports during an inspection of IOF troops in Rafah, Gallant said that “Hamas is worn out and unable to recover, while we reach places it never dreamed we would reach. We will continue to intensify operations until Hamas cannot rebuild its power.”

Hani Al-Dali, an expert on the Palestinian resistance, confirmed the impression given by the Yedioth Ahronoth report. The realities on the ground militarily and politically show that Hamas command and control is still strong and cohesive, he told the Weekly.

“Every position taken by the Hamas negotiating delegation is based on consultation and coordination with the Hamas leadership in Gaza. That leadership absolutely refuses to discuss the Israeli-US plans for the ‘day after’ as it will not allow outsiders to dictate Palestinian domestic arrangements. They also insist that the post-war situation of the whole of Palestine, and not just Gaza, needs to be discussed.”

Hamas will pursue every option that furthers the Palestinians cause of national liberation and return, he said.

“This means that no arrangements can be made for Palestine without significant Hamas representation and input. The regional and international powers understand that it is impossible to eliminate Hamas. All attempts to pressure Hamas into making unacceptable concessions have failed. Political and negotiating ruses will not succeed either.”

* A version of this article appears in print in the 4 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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