President Joe Biden’s performance in his face-off against former president Trump was so dismal it set off controversy within the Democratic Party. The question is whether or not to replace him with a younger, more cognitively capable candidate and, if so, who that should be. Despite plummeting ratings in opinion polls and mounting pressure to step aside from a broad swathe of Democratic Party members, however, the 81-year-old remains set on running for office in November. Asked in an ABC News interview whether he would stand down if he was convinced he could not defeat Trump, Biden responded defiantly, “if the Lord Almighty comes down and tells me that, I might do that.”

The president’s refusal to be swayed regardless of consequences has aggravated the polarisation within the party. Many potential Democratic hopefuls see an opening to step into the ring, encouraged by the torrent of media commentary urging Biden to cede way to Vice President Kamala Harris or another nominee with a better chance of defeating Trump.

Concerned that Biden’s candidacy will ruin Democratic hopes of winning back the House of Representatives, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries met with other Congresspersons to consider alternatives should Biden remain unable to convince Democratic voters that he can do it. Even more crucially, perhaps, Biden is facing heat from the affluent Democratic donor class, many of whom have threatened to withdraw their funding should he stay in the race.

While some analyses see Biden’s determination as “grit”, others deem him “in denial” and “dangerously out-of-touch with the concerns people have about his capacities moving forward and his standing in this race,” as the Democratic Party strategist David Axelrod tweeted on X.

Concern over Biden’s capacity to serve another term has long been widespread, but his performance during the debate with Trump seemed to confirm the worst fears. His response to a question on national debt was unintelligible: if he was arguing that the wealthy should pay more taxes, he failed to make his case.

The consequent deterioration in Biden’s standing, not just among Democrats, but among the US public as a whole is reflected in a CNN poll conducted in the wake of the debate. The results, published on 2 July, gave Trump a six-point lead over Biden were the two to go head-to-head in November, with Trump winning 49 per cent of the vote compared to 43 per cent for Biden. The poll also found that 75 per cent of voters think the Democrats would have a better chance of winning against Trump with almost any other candidate.

Little wonder that the Democrats are in an unprecedented panic: some of the staunchest Biden loyalists who campaigned for him four years ago have described his performance as a “catastrophe.”

One camp instinctively latched onto Vice President Harris as a source of hope. It would still be a challenge for her to match Trump’s populist “MAGA” discourse, which continues to reverberate among a large electoral base. Trump has emerged stronger than before merely by dint of butting heads with Biden. A CNN poll conducted immediately after the debate found a 67 per cent approval rating for Trump compared to only 33 per cent for Biden. In a recent poll presuming a match-up between Harris and Trump, the gap between the two was much smaller. At a recent Democratic gathering, Harris seems to have impressed a number of influential Democrats. They must now be wondering whether there is enough time to build up her image before November.

But what options are there for the Democrats given Biden’s insistence on staying in the race? One is simply to keep going with Biden and shut out or try to drown out doubts and pressures. This is the preferred choice for Biden loyalists who hailed his return to the campaign trail on 7 July when he addressed the congregation at a church, quipping, “I know I look 40” but “I’ve been doing this a long time,” adding that no one is perfect.

A second option is for wealthy donors to pull their funding from Biden, initiating a search for an alternative contender. The considerable support and attention that Harris has been receiving in the Democratic rank and file seem to favour this scenario. Proponents of this view do not underestimate the formidable challenge she or any other Democratic contender would still face, not just to close the gap with Trump in the popular vote but also to carry enough key states to beat him in the Electoral College vote.

A third option is for Democrats simply to throw in the towel and pull out of the race. Although very unlikely, this remains in the cards. It may be a real possibility if major Democratic donors and luminaries turn their backs on Biden and leave him to run against Trump on his own.

Given how divided the Democrats are, it is hard to say which course will prevail at present. One thing they are all aware of is that, with less than 120 days to Election Day, the clock is definitely ticking.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly