There were celebrations on the streets of Tehran following the victory of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian over conservative Saeed Jalili in the runoff presidential vote on 5 July. But they did not necessarily reflect optimism about imminent or radical change. Pezeshkian’s presidency is expected to enhance personal and individual freedoms moderately, particularly concerning the compulsory hijab, easing internal political tensions and improving Iran’s foreign image. But there are no illusions about his presidency being a panacea for change.

“The celebrations were not merely due to the victory of a relatively unknown reformist candidate,” a reformist Iranian politician told Al-Ahram Weekly. “They were a direct message to the Supreme Leader: we have won. The movement to boycott the elections has become the most successful mode of civil protest in Iran in years. The fact that only 39 per cent of voters participated in the first round demonstrates that the boycott movement has spread to many social segments in Iran, terrifying the regime.”

The Supreme Leader has always linked the legitimacy of the regime to the rate of participation in elections. A boycott in the second round would have been a serious blow. Manipulating the result to ensure Jalili’s victory, Khamenei’s ideal candidate, would also have been dangerous. Khamenei has not forgotten Iran’s worst political crisis since the 1979 Revolution, when hundreds of thousands of Iranians protested the results of the 2009 elections with the chant, “Where is my vote?” in response to the victory of conservative candidate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over popular reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.

In effect, people are celebrating the fact that the boycott movement managed to tie the Supreme Leader’s hands, forcing him to accept the people’s preference.

Approximately six million more Iranians voted in the second round, raising the participation rate to 50 per cent in the second round. Khamenei has stated that Pezeshkian was chosen in “free and transparent elections,” adding that the “artificial hype to boycott the elections” had been defeated. In the second round, Pezeshkian received about 55 per cent of the vote, approximately 16.4 million, which is some six million more than the 10 million votes he received in the first round, in which he secured 44 per cent. Conversely, Jalili garnered about 45 per cent of the votes, or 13 million, four million more than in the first round, where he received 40 per cent — the additional votes believed to come from supporters of conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and the other conservative candidate, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, both of whom were eliminated in the first round. As the sole reformist candidate, Pezeshkian greatly benefited from the higher voter turnout.

Khamenei hopes Pezeshkian’s election will prove no more than a change in faces, not policies. When the Supreme Leader congratulated the new president, he advised him to follow in the footsteps of the late president Ebrahim Raisi. In a statement, he also called on Pezeshkian to “make use of the abundant domestic capacities in the country” without mentioning foreign policy, relations with the West, or sanctions.

The first meeting between Khamenei and the new president was largely introductory. Pezeshkian had not been close to the Supreme Leader and had not held a political position that would make them familiar. Informed Iranian officials said the meeting lasted five full hours and included discussions on many issues and priorities for the Pezeshkian government, most notably the economy, regional and international relations, the nuclear file, and lifting sanctions, and probably also nominations for the government. It is believed that the Supreme Leader clarified his red lines in the course of it.

Whether the new president will adhere to his campaign promises of a new era of openness to the region and the world and continue talks with the West to lift sanctions on Iran remains to be seen. Pezeshkian will not take office until August when he is officially inaugurated in the Iranian parliament. However, the composition of his government may give indications of his orientation.

Several names are emerging as potential candidates for the position of foreign minister, including Abbas Araghchi, who served as deputy foreign minister under Javad Zarif’s leadership in Hassan Rouhani’s government, and Ali Akbar Salehi, the former head of the nuclear programme and an experienced nuclear negotiator. Zarif has stated he does not want to hold any official position in Pezeshkian’s government, despite playing a pivotal role in his election campaign, but he may remain a political adviser in an unofficial capacity. This could be a key factor in Pezeshkian’s future success. Zarif’s extensive political experience regionally and internationally equip him to balance conservative concerns with reformist policies, and he has pledged to support the new president’s efforts in this department.

Kamal Kharazi, a veteran Iranian diplomat and former ambassador to the United Nations during Mohammad Khatami’s presidency now working as a foreign policy adviser to the Supreme Leader, has offered to assist Pezeshkian in his efforts to lift sanctions.

Though Pezeshkian is a pragmatic reformist, not a radical one like Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose ideas extended to the role of the Supreme Leader, the views of the newly elected president may still conflict with conservatives, especially regarding conditions for reviving the nuclear agreement with the West. The Supreme Leader is sceptical of the West’s intentions and doubts the feasibility of reviving the nuclear agreement months before the US presidential elections, which could bring in Republican president Donald Trump.

This difference in views came through in former reformist president Hassan Rouhani’s congratulatory message to Pezeshkian, which stated that the Iranian people want significant change. “The people voted clearly in favour of the approach of constructive interaction with the world, the use of smart diplomacy, and the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” referring to the 2015 nuclear agreement Tehran signed with world powers during the Rouhani administration.

The return of reformists to the presidency is seen positively in Europe where, led by Britain, France, and Germany, governments are pressuring Iran to halt its nuclear programme. The new British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, has expressed support for renewed negotiations with Tehran to ease international and regional tensions.

To build bridges with conservatives, Pezeshkian emphasised the need for reform in Iran while expressing loyalty to the principles of the Iranian Revolution and the Supreme Leader. He called for loosening the state’s grip on daily life, especially for young people stifled by limited personal freedoms. But only time will tell whether he will manage to implement his reform ideas without alarming conservatives or displeasing Khamenei.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly