Many political analysts believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is buying time in Gaza and Lebanon with the hope that Donald Trump returns to the White House following the November elections in the US.
Whether this is the case or not, Trump, this time around, is unlikely to influence the outcomes of the war, or to alter Israel’s fate.
US foreign policy seems to be ruled by two different outlooks, one dedicated to the whole world and another only to Israel. The first is driven by the famous, and oft-repeated, comment by former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger to the effect that “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”
Israel, however, remains the exception to this rule, and the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza has once more demonstrated the truth of such a claim.
Though Washington fully shares Israel’s war objectives, it fundamentally disagrees with the concepts of a long war and “total victory” as championed by Netanyahu.
Two protracted US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq taught the Americans that neither the longevity of wars nor their lofty and unrealistic expectations alter inevitable outcomes.
In fact, many US officials, military generals, and mainstream analysts have tried to warn Netanyahu, but to no avail.
Destabilising the Middle East at this specific historical juncture is simply bad for the US. It comes at a time when Ukraine is suffering serious weapons shortages and territorial losses and when the US-European allies are struggling under the weight of economic and political crises.
Since US-Israeli relations are governed according to a unique foreign-policy paradigm, the Biden administration continues to support Israel in every possible way so that it may carry on with a losing war.
That war is, of course, happening at the expense of the over 125,000 Palestinians who have thus far been killed or wounded due to Israeli strikes, shelling, and mass executions. Those dying from famine or disease are a different number that is yet to be fully accounted for.
Washington is not perturbed by the Gaza genocide itself but by the outcome of the war on US plans in the Middle East and the future of its forces in Iraq and Syria. It is also concerned about its geostrategic sway in the region due to the unprecedented instability in the Red Sea region.
Yet, US President Joe Biden continues to arm Israel and to provide a safety net to its dwindling economy. On 20 April, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to provide $26.3 billion in assistance to Israel. Moreover, massive shipments of weapons continue to flow to Israel unhindered.
These explosives are not only destroying the whole of Gaza but also any chances that the US could ever regain any degree of credibility in the Middle East. Worse, the blind US support for Israel has also shaken Washington’s position internationally.
So, what could Trump do that Biden has not already done?
Trump’s politics are abashedly Machiavellian. During his term in office between 2017 and 2021, he played the role of the American genie, granting Israel’s every wish, though all its demands were flagrant violations of international law.
Trump’s pro-Israel policies included the recognition of all of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the annexation of the Golan Heights, and the recognition of all illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank, among others.
But Netanyahu is also Machiavellian, a fact that irked Trump following his humiliating exit from the White House.
“I haven’t spoken to him since,” Trump said in an interview with Axios’s Barak Ravid in December 2021, in a reference to the Israeli leader.
However, both sides are now trying to rekindle the old love affair. The Republican presidential candidate must be pleased with Netanyahu’s public criticism of the Biden administration. In return, Trump is ready to “finish the job,” as he said in the first presidential debate in the US on 27 June.
Yet, Trump’s return to office will do nothing to change Israel’s misfortunes since 7 October last year, because Israel’s problems do not originate in Washington.
Israel’s crisis is multifaceted. It is unable to win the war in Gaza, despite the mass tragedy and destruction it has created there. It is also failing to change the rules of engagement in Lebanon due to the strength of its enemies and the fact that its military is unable to fight and win on multiple fronts.
Another dimension of the Israeli crisis is internal, with there being deep divisions in Israeli society, the security apparatus, and among politicians. Not even Trump can possibly bridge such gaps or end the polarisation, which is only likely to deepen in the future.
Even on the international front, Trump is likely to prove equally ineffective, again simply because the Biden administration has defied the international consensus on Israel since the start of the war. The current US House of Representatives went as far as to pass legislation to sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) after its prosecutor applied for arrest warrants against Israeli officials.
If Netanyahu thinks that Trump would offer him a better deal than Biden, he is mistaken. Biden has proved to be the greatest American enabler of Israel in its 76-year history.
Ironically, the unquestioned support of Israel given by the US could be a contributing factor to its downfall.
“To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal,” Kissinger also said. He is not wrong.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: