With blood from his ear staining his neck and shirt, Republican candidate and former US president Donald Trump came to his feet surrounded by Secret Service agents, his hair dishevelled from being thrown to the ground by Secret Service agents shielding him from the bullets whizzing around. At Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, once the assailant was confirmed dead, the Secret Service dragged Trump off the stage while he protested, “Let me get my shoes.” Leaving the stage, Trump raised his fist forcefully and chanted to his supporters, “Fight!” This image and his response to the attack dispelled any doubts about his political survival instinct. Even a terrifying and shocking moment like an assassination attempt became political theatre, which he used to maximum effect.
The motives of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the 20-year-old man who attempted to assassinate Trump, remain unknown to the US Federal Police. Questions linger as to how the gunman managed to come so close to the rally, enabling him to shoot a former president and presidential candidate. What was clear was that, despite being shocked and bloodied, Trump hadn’t had a politically stronger moment. This dramatic scene is likely to have a profound impact on the presidential elections next November.
Things have been improving the Republicans at the expense of the Democrats by the hour. A Florida judge dismissed the classified documents case against Trump, a decision condemned by Democrats as “breathtakingly misguided.” Hours later, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Trump was officially announced the Republican Party’s nominee for the presidential election at the Republican Party convention, where he was welcomed like a hero by his supporters. It was confirmed that he had chosen Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice president.
A 39-year-old Yale law graduate, Vance is a rising star in the Republican Party and the populist-nationalist movement in the US. Right-wing commentators have hailed his selection, arguing that he might be an even better president than Trump, the politician capable of elevating the right-wing populist movement to new heights. Others viewed his choice as a stroke of genius by Trump. The Republican senator speaks the language of the average American, attributing the decline of American cities and the plight of their residents to the exodus of factories and jobs. Many see him as the ideal candidate to win the votes of the Rust Belt states suffering from significant economic, cultural, and social crises. States such as Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with their tens of millions of blue-collar voters, typically decide the presidential elections, and Vance’s life story is already resonating with them.
He had a childhood marked by instability and economic hardship, which he detailed in his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy. He grew up in Middletown, Ohio, in a working class family with roots in the Appalachian region of Kentucky. His mother struggled with substance abuse, leading to a tumultuous home environment. The family frequently moved between different homes, and at times, Vance lived with his grandparents, who played a crucial role in his upbringing. He eventually enlisted in the Marine Corps, which he credits with teaching him discipline and providing him with a way out of his troubled environment. After his military service, he pursued higher education, graduating from Ohio State University and later earning a law degree from Yale Law School.
When Vance talks about his childhood and that of other children in the Rust Belt, he addresses not just economic hardship but also the lack of “social capital” — the absence of a social network to provide help or advice, good schools, or a supportive social environment encouraging education to improve living conditions. Violence, crime, drugs, and despair are defining features of these forgotten cities. Vance’s childhood experiences deeply influenced his views on social and economic issues, particularly the struggles of the white working class.
Politically, Vance is seen as an “isolationist” regarding America’s role in the world. He supports the US government spending taxpayer money on domestic needs — such as infrastructure, jobs, healthcare, and schools — rather than on foreign military ventures to spread democracy and human rights. His stance presents a test for Europe, which seeks a partner in Washington willing to resume substantial military spending to assist Ukraine in its war against Russia. It also challenges the interventionists within the Republican Party, who have long argued that America must act as the “policeman of the world” to protect its global interests.
Such a dramatic turn has come at a crucial time for the Democratic Party, after party donors froze about $90 million until an alternative to President Joe Biden could be found. This decision reflects concerns that the deterioration of Biden’s mental abilities could significantly hinder his re-election prospects. It was anticipated that discussions of Biden’s future as a presidential candidate and his mental fitness would dominate American political discourse following the NATO summit in Washington. But the attempt on Trump’s life shifted the focus, complicating the Democratic Party’s strategy.
Will this force the Democratic Party to take steps to replace Biden, or will they rally behind him, believing the American political landscape cannot withstand further division? Alternatively, faced with the polls predicting his defeat, might Biden choose to withdraw, making way for a more viable candidate capable of defeating Trump? Though complex, these questions might have straightforward answers. Biden is known for his stubbornness and has consistently asserted that he is the only candidate capable of defeating Trump. There is currently no indication that he is reconsidering this stance. However, his campaign could face greater challenges in the coming weeks. Every interview, press conference, or debate will test his mental acuity, and any poor performance could be seen as a nail in the coffin for his re-election.
The Democratic Party’s electoral strategy has been built on highlighting the danger Trump poses to American democracy and the free world, portraying him as a potential fascist dictator who would forever alter America if elected. However, continuing this rhetoric might now seem like incitement to another violent act against Trump, potentially backfiring Although Trump himself did not blame the assassination attempt on the Democrats’ rhetoric, his close associates, including his sons Eric and Donald Trump Jr, and representatives in Congress such as JD Vance and Marjorie Taylor Greene explicitly blamed the Democratic Party for the attack, stating they bore responsibility for the bloodshed.
Instead of focusing on the perceived existential threat posed by Trump, the Democratic Party might now shift to highlighting Biden’s achievements during his first term. However, this strategy has fundamental weaknesses, as many Americans feel their lives have not improved under the Biden administration. Millions of progressive, Arab, and Muslim Americans may not vote for Biden due to his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, what is more. Ultimately, if opinion polls continue to show Trump leading nationally and in swing states, the Democrats might have no choice but to revert to the strategy of emphasising Trump as an existential threat to America.
Even before the assassination attempt, many European capitals were already preparing for his potential return to the White House. This anticipation grew after last month’s debate between Trump and Biden, during which the president faltered numerous times, struggling to complete sentences and repeating incomprehensible phrases. In recent months, US opinion polls have shown Trump steadily leading both nationally and in swing states.
The assassination attempt appears to have redoubled Trump’s momentum on his way to the White House. Some British politicians have openly acknowledged this shift and its potential impact on Europe, and British Foreign Minister David Lammy met with Trump’s team during his visit to Washington before Labour won the general election in Britain in early July. Lammy and other European officials were surprised by the organisation and discipline of Trump’s campaign compared to 2016 and 2020.
If Trump’s election constitutes a challenge to Europe and other American allies, his selection of Senator Vance as vice president increases this challenge. Vance’s approach to foreign policy is rooted in realism, prioritising American national interests and security, a stance is informed by broader scepticism of neoconservative policies that advocate for nation-building and military interventions abroad.
Vance is sceptical of the efficacy and necessity of the US providing significant support to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. He is also critical of the idea that the US should actively spread democracy around the world through interventionist policies, suggesting such efforts often lead to unintended consequences and fail to achieve their intended goals. Vance views NATO with caution and restraint, advocating for European countries to take on more financial and military responsibility. It is no wonder that more voices in Europe and Ukraine have begun to advocate for political negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Last week at the National Conservatism conference in Washington, Senator Vance said, “I have to beat up on the UK — just one additional thing. I was talking with a friend recently and we were talking about, you know, one of the big dangers in the world, of course, is nuclear proliferation, though, of course, the Biden administration doesn’t care about it. And I was talking about, you know, what is the first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon, and we were like, maybe it’s Iran, you know, maybe Pakistan already kind of counts, and then we sort of finally decided maybe it’s actually the UK since Labour just took over.”
This is a controversial statement by an American senator on a country considered America’s closest ally. In response, UK Treasury Minister James Murray said, “I don’t know what he was driving at in that comment, to be honest. I mean, in Britain, we’re very proud of our diversity.”
Already it seems that the big political question is no longer how to stop Trump but how to work with Trump’s second administration. Trump was injured during the assassination attempt, but the political wound was inflicted on Joe Biden.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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