The Israeli claim that it has assassinated Mohamed Deif, commander of Hamas’ military wing the Al-Qassam Brigades, captured Israeli and Western headlines this week even though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could not confirm it in a press conference.
There was “no certainty” that Deif had died in the Israeli airstrike on the Al-Mawasi Refugee Camp in Khan Younis on 13 July, he said. The strike, which used US-made JDAM bombs, massively lethal when used against civilian areas, killed and injured at least 390 Palestinian refugees.
Hamas has confirmed that Deif is still alive and in good health despite the massacre. Hamas Deputy Chief Khalil Al-Hayyah said in an interview with the TV channel Aljazeera on Saturday that Netanyahu was trying to declare a “fake victory.”
Addressing Netanyahu, he said that “Mohamed Al-Deif is listening to you now and mocking your false statements.” The Israeli occupation simply wants to kill, destroy, and target women and children, he said.
Al-Hayyah said that Netanyahu has no interest in a ceasefire agreement and prisoner exchange in Gaza. He wants to prolong the war, throw mediators into confusion, and pressure the resistance to the Israeli war.
He announced that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh had notified the mediators in the conflict that Hamas has decided to withdraw from the negotiations, which have failed due to Israel’s refusal to commit to serious negotiations and its massacring of civilians.
Deif has survived seven Israeli assassination attempts before this one, the latest in 2021. In one attempt he sustained serious injuries, which, according to Israeli reports, left him in a wheelchair, unable to move on his own, and having to be transported from place to place by ambulance.
He never appears in public, though his voice was heard in an audio recording on 7 October 2023 in which he announced the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation against Israel. According to sources close to Hamas, planning for this operation had been taking place since May 2021.
Deif was the victim of two failed assassination attempts within one week during that month.
The Al-Mawasi massacre was yet another in the long trail of war crimes and crimes against humanity that Israel has perpetrated in Gaza since 7 October last year.
According to Hani Al-Dali, an expert on the Palestinian resistance, the Israeli Occupation has attempted to justify the slaughter by claiming that it was targeting Hamas leaders. Its political aim was to cause the negotiations to fail by leaving Hamas no alternative but to withdraw, despite its commitment to the process, Al-Dali said.
Hamas has made it clear that it is ready to react positively to any deal that guarantees a permanent ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a prisoner exchange, the delivery of urgent relief to the people of Gaza, and the reconstruction of the Strip after the war.
The Al-Mawasi massacre undermined mediation efforts by showing that Netanyahu has no intention to end the war, Al-Dali said.
“Carrying out the Al-Mawasi massacre on the false claim that the commander of the Hamas military wing was there was Israel’s coup de grace to the negotiating process for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange,” Al-Dali said.
“Netanyahu pretended Deif was there as the pretext for murdering civilians in order to put pressure on Hamas and ruin the negotiations. There is evidence that Deif was never in the camp to begin with because the place is so exposed.”
“Obviously, this round of negotiations has failed, but Hamas’ position is clear. It will continue with the negotiations in order not to give Netanyahu a pretext to claim that it caused the collapse,” Al-Dali said.
Netanyahu is trying to buy time, he added. The Israeli delegation in Doha for the negotiations has returned to Israel, carrying with it the ideas that it discussed with mediators without giving a response.
However, “Netanyahu’s response was more explicit,” Al-Dali said. “It took the form of the massacre and his declarations that he would not stop the war for a second. That put paid to any hopes for the current round.”
Al-Dali’s view is corroborated by two Egyptian security sources who told Reuters that the ceasefire talks broke down after an intensive round that failed to yield a viable outcome. Israel has no real intention of reaching an agreement, the sources said.
HAMAS RESPONSE: Hamas is in a crisis, according to political analyst Tamar Haddad.
“It has so far failed to deliver on its two main conditions, namely the complete withdrawal of the occupation forces and a permanent ceasefire,” Haddad said.
“This is because of Netanyahu and the ideological makeup of his extreme-right partners in government. They are not interested in ending the war until they have seized the last weapon from the Palestinian resistance. Hamas is ready to accept a temporary truce, since Netanyahu has no intention to reach a deal because he needs to claim something he can call a victory no matter how long the war lasts.”
The Al-Aqsa Flood Operation had shattered three key components of the Israeli security doctrine, Haddad said, being a decisive military edge, deterrence power, and advance warning. Netanyahu is determined to rehabilitate these and revive the Israeli public’s confidence in the country’s army by disarming Hamas and eliminating its presence in Gaza.
“Netanyahu has been stalling during the current negotiating round in order to drag things out until he addresses the US Congress and meets US President Joe Biden on 24 July,” Haddad said.
“He sets impossible conditions and refuses to give written guarantees on a ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza. Netanyahu knows that Hamas cannot accept a deal if it does not receive written or even verbal guarantees. So, he throws the ball into Hamas’ court to make Hamas appear at fault for the collapse of the deal while painting himself as eager to release the prisoners.”
“Then he will press ahead with the third phase of the war, the war of attrition against the resistance in Gaza, while continuing the war against Hizbullah in the north.”
Political analyst Nidal Khadra explained that Netanyahu continues to convey the message that “military pressure,” meaning mass murder and destruction, will yield concessions.
“This is essentially Israel’s negotiating position. By prolonging the war, it thinks that this will build up enough pressure on the resistance to release the hostages and eliminate the resistance. However, Hamas will not give Netanyahu what he wants. It will continue to stand up to him through the war of attrition with the aim of realising the Palestinian people’s goals.”
According to Israeli commentators, the current round of negotiations will be suspended in the short term but will resume in the medium to long term. The mounting pressure on Hamas and attempts to liquidate its leadership will ultimately push it towards an agreement.
However, in truth the Israeli military leadership is in disarray and unable to identify its goals. Nor does the Israeli government appear ready to make a decision, as it still has no clear vision for the “day after” the war ends.
While part of this has to do with sharp differences within the Israeli political and military command, another part may be due to the lack of sufficient intelligence.
After the Al-Mawasi massacre, the Israeli newspaper Maariv published a report in which it attempted a detailed assessment of how Hamas and the Lebanese group Hizbullah might react to the Deif assassination attempt.
Noting that the Israeli army had raised the level of alert in both southern and northern Israel after the strikes on Khan Younis, it went on to acknowledge that the Israeli army was unable to gauge how long Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) group in Gaza could sustain operations over the long term and whether they could reach targets in central Israel or Beersheba.
Moreover, whatever the estimates of the duration, the Israeli army would have to revise them upwards based on the assumption that Hizbullah would let Hamas fighters and possibly other Palestinian resistance factions in Lebanon carry out cross-border gunfire operations targeting northern Israel, the newspaper said, which would transcend the “rules of engagement” on the Israeli-Lebanese front.
Hizbullah, itself, might even unleash strikes deep into Israel. The Israeli military and security agencies were closely monitoring the situation, Maariv said.
Even in the absence of a clear plan as the war continues into its ninth month, the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) do not plan to leave soon, according to Israeli military analysts.
Some IOF sources predict that the war on the Gaza front could last for more than a year and that if it spreads to the Lebanese front, it might even continue into 2026.
According to IOF sources, the third phase of the war on Gaza will transition from full-scale military assaults to intermittent “surgical” strikes. The plan involves preparing the ground for new rules of engagement that would permit blitz offensives in isolated cantons along the lines of how the Israeli Occupation currently manages the West Bank.
Military observers say that Al-Qassam Brigades Spokesperson Abu Ubeida addressed this question recently, when he said that the Brigades were prepared to wage a prolonged war against Israeli forces in Gaza.
Hamas has prepared itself for such a scenario, which observers believe is likely given the current political realities and conditions on the ground.
The resistance forces in Gaza appear to be well-equipped for urban guerilla warfare aimed at wearing down and demoralising the Israeli forces. Instead of sustained confrontation, the resistance fighters stage surprise attacks in various parts of the bombed-out terrain.
If the resistance has lost much of its missile capacities, it compensates with more recruits and light weapons, including guided shoulder-mounted anti-tank and anti-personnel RPGs, modified tandem rockets, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
Such tactics and weapons have had a considerable impact on the course of the conflict.
According to military observers, thousands of resistance fighters are still active across the Strip, ready to receive instructions for an extended campaign against the Occupation Forces. As they know the lay of the land, they will be able to take advantage of the features of every house and street in their area to prepare surprises for the IOF.
Apparently, some bombed out tunnels have been repaired and repurposed, occasionally to use as snares to lure IOF ground units tasked with hunting Hamas operatives in them. In short, the Palestinian resistance is not only intact, but also proving its ability to adapt rapidly to changing circumstances.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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