It has been a dramatic week in US politics.
After approximately 24 days of persuasion and pressure from Democratic Party leaders and donors, President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, stating that he believes “it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term.”
Vice President Kamala Harris was swiftly selected as the party’s nominee to face Republican candidate Donald Trump in November’s elections after she secured the support of California delegates, putting her over the threshold needed when the Democratic Party meets to approve its candidate at its Convention in Chicago next month.
Within hours, donors had released around $80 million that had been withheld before Biden stepped down.
The question is whether Biden took too long to decide and whether that will be detrimental to the Democratic Party cause.
Since the televised debate between Biden and Trump on 27 June, the political ground has shifted beneath Biden’s feet, making his departure from the political stage unavoidable. The opinion polls have been his relentless adversary, consistently showing him trailing Trump by two to five points both nationally and in crucial swing states.
The debate aimed to alter the trajectory of these polls and persuade voters that Biden was the better choice to lead the nation. However, the debate did the opposite. Biden faltered, and his responses stumbled during a painful 90-minute debate.
In contrast, Trump, ever the showman, exuded theatrical confidence, with each of his criticisms aimed squarely at undermining Biden’s credibility and sowing doubt among voters about his age and mental acuity.
The debate will be remembered for several reasons. Firstly, its timing was unusual, taking place in June, which is early for a presidential debate. Biden’s team had pushed for this early confrontation in order to present their case against a Republican candidate convicted of 34 criminal charges. However, the gamble proved to be one of the worst decisions of a sitting president.
Secondly, it is one of the rare instances where a single debate has sealed the fate of a presidential candidate. Subsequent attempts to salvage the situation failed after the debate revealed the impact of age on Biden’s mental faculties. Successive media appearances only reinforced the impression that his poor performance was not due to a cold, lack of sleep, or extensive travel, but rather evidence of cognitive decline due to age.
The reaction extended beyond shock to widespread anger. For three weeks, Biden had resisted calls from major Democratic leaders to step aside for a younger candidate with a better chance of defeating Trump. The anger stemmed from his stubbornness, denial, and the protective circle around him, which obscured the extent of his mental decline.
For months, rumours about Biden’s declining mental acuity have circulated, but voters did not fully grasp their credibility until the debate and subsequent interviews and press conferences. This led to the conclusion that Biden was not only unable to defeat Trump but also incapable of governing effectively for another four years.
Biden faltered at a critical juncture, with the opinion polls reflecting a significant shift in favour of Trump. Hesitant voters began leaning towards the Republican candidate as their confidence in Biden was irrevocably shaken.
There have been mixed feelings following Biden’s withdrawal. On the one hand, there is relief. His withdrawal removes the Republicans’ main criticism of the Democrats – Biden’s age – one that had resonated widely with the US public. Moreover, Biden’s exit paves the way for a new Democratic candidate with broader appeal.
However, the question remains: can Harris defeat Trump?
Replacing Biden with Harris did not immediately shift public opinion. Although Harris has performed slightly better in the polls than Biden, she still trails behind the Republican candidate nationally and in several swing states. Some attribute this to Biden’s reluctance to exit the race sooner, leaving Harris and the Democrats with limited time to reintroduce her to voters.
Presenting Harris as the Democratic candidate capable of defeating Trump will require extensive support from party leaders, party machinery, and Democratic members of Congress.
Nonetheless, Biden’s exit was driven not just by his age, but also by his declining popularity due to his handling of crucial issues like the Gaza war, immigration, and the economy.
The most contentious of these was his perceived inaction regarding the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, deemed by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to constitute a potential genocide in the making against the Palestinians. Biden’s stance alienated millions of progressive voters, including Arabs and Muslims.
Harris needs to strike the delicate balance of defending the Democrats’ record without appearing to follow in Biden’s footsteps regarding Israel in order to avoid losing the same votes that eluded Biden.
In order to win, she must attract hesitant and independent voters in swing states, presenting herself as a distinct candidate with a new approach to governance. She also needs to build her brand among ordinary Americans, many of whom are not well-acquainted with her, as her visibility during her vice presidency has been limited.
Harris will not have time to determine how she wants to proceed in the political minefield of the Middle East because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington and is scheduled to deliver a speech before Congress at the invitation of the Republicans.
No meetings between Netanyahu and either Biden or Harris had been confirmed, even though the Israeli prime minister has already departed for the US. Harris will not attend Netanyahu’s speech as she has an election engagement in Indiana on the same day. This may give her room to manoeuvre and time to formulate a different position on the war on Gaza and its humanitarian cost.
Over recent months, Harris has been one of the rare voices in the US administration who has spoken out about the enormity of the human losses in Gaza. It is believed that she will try to pressure Israel to limit human losses and alleviate the horrific suffering in Gaza, while at the same time committing to Israel’s security and providing it with the weapons and diplomatic cover it needs.
It seems that Harris will differ in tone from Biden but will not differ strategically from his approach. These restrictions will make it difficult for her to win over uncommitted voters. Progressive voters, young people, Arabs, and US Muslims have made it clear that they do not want minor adjustments but fundamental changes.
Many of them still insist on not voting for the Democrats, even if this leads to a Trump victory.
Abdullah Hammoud, the Democratic mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, a city with a significant Arab population, refrained from endorsing Harris. He emphasised the need for a candidate capable of implementing groundbreaking domestic policies and steering away from the “genocidal course” in Gaza and beyond.
“America needs a candidate who can inspire voters to come out to the ballot box this November,” he said.
A recent opinion poll conducted by the Arab American Institute (AAI) showed that support for the Biden administration among Arab-American voters in swing states has decreased since the Israeli war on Gaza, with support slightly less than 20 per cent.
In another poll by the Pew Research Centre, the results showed that only 30 per cent of Americans have some or a lot of confidence in Netanyahu, while 53 per cent have little or no confidence.
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to lack confidence in Netanyahu, with 71 per cent of Democrats expressing little or no confidence. Americans are also divided on the Biden administration’s handling of the war, with 22 per cent saying Biden favours Israelis too much, 16 per cent saying he favours Palestinians too much, and 21 per cent saying he strikes the right balance.
The dilemma before Harris is how she can avoid the negative repercussions of Biden administration policies on her election campaign. She is the Democratic Party’s nominee for the presidential elections, but Biden is still in the White House and is adopting policies that may negatively affect her chances.
If a week is a long time in US politics, then the roughly 100 days until the presidential elections may be sufficient to alter all calculations. In recent months, Biden has been politically constrained by considerations related to his re-election. Now free from those concerns, he might exhibit stronger leadership to pressure Israel to prevent genocide, forced displacement, and the use of starvation as a weapon of war in Gaza.
If he succeeds, he could pave the way for the election of the first female president in US history.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 25 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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