Last month, The Trump Organization announced it would construct a Trump Tower in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Eric Trump, son of former president and current Republican candidate Donald, praised the first Trump development in Saudi Arabia. The announcement followed the Saudi government investing two billion dollars with former president Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, according to the American news outlet The Hill.

Though those business deals might have already been in the pipeline, the timing of the announcement just a few months before the American election suggested that the Gulf states were pledging their support for Trump against the Democratic candidate, currently Vice-President Kamala Harris. Some Gulf media outlets appear to be leaning towards the Republican candidate in their election campaign coverage. So do the social media accounts of some figures who claim to be close to decision makers in Gulf countries.

But Western commentators with knowledge of the countries in question, among others in the region, argue that the Gulf might not be as supportive of Trump as it was in the 2016 election. Deals and indirect transfers of money are not the same as official campaign donations. Both campaigns might have received donations linked to foreign countries through registered lobbyists – which is clearly legal in the US – but nothing in the public domain suggests that the Trump campaign is a favoured recipient.

Trump’s business interests in the Middle East stretch back to before his presidential bid in 2016. During his term from 2017 to 2020 he made some ten million dollars in Gulf countries while president, which went against the rule of not profiteering from his time in office. Real figures could be higher, but that is what emerged from an analysis of his tax returns last year by non-profit watchdog organisation Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (Crew).

The Trump Organization’s partner in the latest Saudi deal is a leading Saudi developer, Dar Al-Arkan (Dar Global), which recently announced a deal in the Sultanate of Oman for the development of a resort that will include residential villas, a hotel and a golf course in Muscat. In April this year, James Swanston, MENA economist at Capital Economics, told the Emirati English language daily The National that if Trump is re-elected his previous term may aid in warmer relations with the Gulf economies. In its report, The National counted up Trump and Trump-related business deals in the Middle East from Turkey to the UAE through to Qatar.

Trump remains foremost a businessman; he would normally have business deals with whoever he can benefit from, regardless of political implications, as a Dubai-based American consultant told Al- Ahram Weekly. He referred to the difference between the Republican candidate, a property dealer, and the Democratic candidate, a public official.

It can be observed from commentary in the media, however, that few in the Gulf feel that Trump would be better for their countries than Harris. Those are the enthusiastic backers of the Abraham Accords in countries like UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. But that argument is easily refuted since a Democratic president will not differ much when it comes to enhancing normalisation between the Gulf and Israel.

Andrew Hammond of Oxford University suggests that commentators are generally expressing their own views. “I don’t think any of this reflects regime thinking,” he told the Weekly. “A Saudi agreement with a Democratic administration on a nuclear technology and defence pact is worth more than a renegade Trump administration.” Even those Gulf countries that were keen on a Trump presidency no longer feel that way.

“It was all smoke and mirrors. They got a sugar high from him over four years [during his first presidency] but in the end they actually got nothing. I’m sure they realise that now,” Hammond said. He noted that Trump also ripped the nuclear deal with Iran and suffocated it by reintroducing sanctions. “And they’ve already concluded they need to be on good terms with Iran. They’ve already seen a peak anti-Iran US regime and it didn’t make a difference in the end.”

In 2019 a Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco oil installations led to a stoppage of almost half of oil production. Riyadh blamed Iran for the attack and expected an American response, but was frustrated when Trump paid it lip-service without taking any action. Hammond said: “He couldn’t step up to defend Saudi Arabia after the Aramco attack, and both Saudi and UAE concluded it was time to make up with Iran. The lesson from that was as clear as day: Trump is unreliable, and they’re better off with a reliable administration, even if it’s not rhetorically their favourite.”

Apart from some commentators and analysts, the official stance in the Gulf is that they are ready to deal with whoever wins in November, counting on “strategic ties” with the US. The pragmatism of Gulf leaders means their focus is often on their own countries’ national interests. And those might not be best served by Trump.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 29 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly