In the rapidly shifting landscape of US electoral politics, there are players behind the scenes who know what keys to punch and strings to pull in making sense of the country’s elections.

Massad Boulos, an adviser to former US president Donald Trump and a strategic planner for the Trump campaign’s outreach to Arab-American communities in the run-up to this year’s US presidential elections, is one such player. He shared his insights into what might tip the scales of crucial swing states like Michigan, Arizona, and Pennsylvania with Al-Ahram Weekly.

These are states with significant numbers of Arab-American voters, the vast majority of whom are angered and frustrated at the Biden administration’s policies towards Gaza and the Middle East in general. This could steer their votes away from the Democratic Party and its candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and towards the Republican Trump in November’s presidential elections.

Boulos said that his role in the Trump Campaign is to attract Arab-American votes and reshape the electoral map in the Republicans’ favour, notably by strengthening communications with Arab and Muslim communities across the US and coordinating with local and international Arabic-language media.

He has accompanied Trump on many campaign events and organised meetings with members of Arab and Muslim communities in US swing states. He also believes it is important to reach out to Middle Eastern leaders who have played and will continue to play a critical role in negotiating processes in the region.

Asked to predict the results of this year’s US elections, Boulos said that “presidential elections in the US are usually neck-to-neck, and the Trump-Harris race will be no different. The competition will be particularly fierce in the six swing states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.”

“Trump is doing very well in most of these,” he added, saying that he only needs to win in four of them to win the elections. This makes the Arab and Muslim Americans in these states potential kingmakers, Boulos said, especially in Michigan where they make up a sizeable voting bloc. Moreover, Trump has made significant gains in states that traditionally vote Democrat such as Nevada and Virginia.

While Harris has been gaining in the polls, Boulos said that the Trump campaign was not worried about these figures. “She’s having a nomination honeymoon that has brought her a slight rise in the polls, but with time they will shift back to Trump,” he said, adding that in his view last week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago marked the end of her honeymoon.

Boulos said that Harris has still not held a real press conference in which she has to field questions from reporters. So far, she has refused to meet directly with the press, relying on forums where she can read scripted remarks or teleprompters.

“But American voters are smart,” Boulos said. “They’ll see through her soon enough, especially with the first debate between her and Trump coming up soon.”

Commenting on the anger of many Arab and Muslim Americans towards the Biden administration, notably over its support for Israel in the war on Gaza, Boulos said that the current administration’s foreign policy is one of its main weaknesses because it affects issues that the Arab and Muslim community feels strongly about.

“This administration has put off a lot of people with its ‘forever wars,’ such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the mounting tensions with China over Taiwan and with Iran and North Korea and with various parts of Africa,” Boulos said.

“But for Arab-Americans at present, their main problem with the Biden/Harris administration is its failure to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and its refusal to use US influence to stop the massive bloodshed of Palestinian civilians,” he added.

“Washington under Biden could not even handle humanitarian aid effectively. It totally ignored a proposal for a two-state solution put forward by the Palestinian Authority (PA), even though the proposal had the backing of all the main Arab powers.”

He said that many Arab and Muslim voters are also disappointed in the Biden/Harris administration’s domestic policies, which have failed to meet their economic and social aspirations. In response, these voters, many of whom have traditionally voted Democrat, have launched various movements to express their frustration with the administration.

The most important, which could have a direct impact on the elections, is the “Uncommitted” Movement joined by hundreds of thousands of Arabs who refused to pledge their votes to the Democratic Party in the primaries, he said, making it clear that they expect the Democratic candidate to make explicit pledges regarding their core concerns.

According to Boulos, Trump has made it clear that he strongly opposes the war on Gaza. “Trump is totally against the killing of civilians, and he has pledged that he will do all in his power from his first day in office after becoming president again to end this war and bring peace back to the Middle East,” he said.

He believes that Trump could also appeal to the culturally and religiously conservative side of many Arab and Muslim voters who cannot accept what they regard as the radical social agenda of the team led by Harris and her vice-presidential pick Tim Walz. “In Trump, they will find a leadership that protects their values,” he said.

If Trump does win a second term in the White House, Boulos believes he will follow through on his “deep commitment to peace,” described as one of the main characteristics of his first term as president.

“Trump is the only president in modern US history who has not started a foreign war. In fact, he has worked to end conflicts and to pull US troops out of conflict zones. Moreover, he scored some major diplomatic achievements, such as the ‘Abraham Accords’ between Israel and four Arab countries, and he came close to securing a fifth such accord with Saudi Arabia,” Boulos said.

“These efforts affirm Trump’s commitment to promoting a two-state solution that will be acceptable to both Palestinians and Israelis.”

Many Arab-Americans see Trump as someone who can ensure domestic stability in the US, Boulos said. “Trump is strongly focused on the economy. He wants to rebuild a strong economy, fight inflation, cut taxes, and strengthen border security, all of which are issues to which Arab-Americans attach great importance.”

He said that Trump also has a long record of friendly relations with most Arab countries, with which he built fruitful bridges of economic and political cooperation during his first term. The result was that he enhanced the US’ status and prestige among Arab countries as a reliable strategic partner.

“Trump appreciates the importance of the Arab world as a strategic partner in many regional and international issues. This is why he will invest in forging deeper and more comprehensive cooperation which will promote stability and prosperity in the region.”

Boulos added that Trump has shown a commitment to strengthening the role of Arab-Americans in US policymaking. “Trump is aware that the Arab-American community has produced a large group of highly educated and skilled professionals who have been very successful in many fields, which makes them eminently suitable for senior government posts,” Boulos said.

“In Trump’s next administration, I expect that he will continue to include Arab-Americans in the decision-making processes, benefitting from their skills and expertise in addressing national and international challenges.”

Should Trump win in November, he will put his weight behind a political process in the Middle East that will aim to achieve the two-state solution, Boulos said. He will try to foster a new negotiating climate in which the Palestinians and Israelis are able to move forward to a lasting agreement that will lead to peace and prosperity for the Middle East as a whole, he added.

He will work to bring other Arab countries into the Abraham Accords, promote a lasting solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and try to reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran, Boulos said.

“Ultimately, the Arab-American communities believe that Trump can end the war and bring peace to the Middle East. At the same time, Arab voters share the Republican Party’s conservative family values, which makes it a natural choice. They also suffer from the economic strains that all Americans feel and they long for an end to inflation, for a strong economy, and for tighter borders.”

“Arab voters feel that they need a new leadership that can offer real solutions to their problems,” he said. If Arab and Muslim communities in the swing states feel marginalised and that their main concerns are ignored, they also are aware of the pivotal role they can play in the elections.

“Arab voters know the importance of their votes. They will not hesitate to support the candidate who will bring real change to the policies that impact their daily lives,” Boulos concluded.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 29 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly