The second attempt on Donald Trump’s life that took place this week, once again overshadowed the race to the White House. The would-be assassin Ryan Wesley Routh was found hiding in the bushes at the Trump International Golf Club in Florida, within a few metres of the course on which Trump was playing.
With fifty more days to go to the November election, and following the first assassination attempt on Trump, which took place in Butler, Pennsylvania last July, it remains to be seen what the impact of this second attempt will be on the race, and whether it will offset the surge in polls that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris enjoyed in the wake of the presidential debate on 10 September.
For now the incident has raised the temperature of what is turning into a highly incendiary campaign. In the wake of the news, Trump ally and tech mogul Elon Musk queried on his platform X why no similar attempts have been made on the lives of President Biden or Vice President Harris. He then quickly deleted his post saying that it was a misplaced joke.
The perpetrator of the Golf Course assassination attempt Routh was apparently ideologically motivated, and a fervent supporter of the war in Ukraine against Russia. He had voted for Trump as president but now said that he no longer supported him. Routh had tried to volunteer to fight in Ukraine and also to enlist Afghans to fight there. Trump, who has opposed supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia, had not shown enthusiasm for the war during his debate with Harris.
The new assassination attempt is expected to deepen the already high polarisation in the campaign trail. Prior to it, Harris had been the clear winner in her first, and perhaps only, debate with Trump. Post-debate polls showed her gaining a point over her opponent and commentators said her performance had been “more presidential” compared to Trump’s. She adopted an amused and ridiculing stance towards him and appeared successful in rattling him and putting him in defensive mode, taking his focus off topics in which he could have had an advantage such as the economy and trade.
Several top-ranking Republicans expressed their disappointment and shock at Trump’s debate performance, especially his insistence on accusing Haitian immigrants of “eating the cats and eating the dogs” in Ohio. Following the debate Trump also lashed out at mega star Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris, declaring on his platform Truth Social, “I hate Taylor Swift!”
The presidential race is now extremely tight, with a margin of undecided voters, specifically in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, whose votes could swing the needle as to who wins the race in November. Apart from these, the core of committed voters for both candidates remains the same. There is potential that Harris could win a greater turnout among young voters and women on the question of abortion which to date has been one of her strongest points and where she is deemed to have performed well in the debate with Trump. But even Taylor Swift’s endorsement according to the polls did not significantly impact voters who had already made up their minds on the candidates.
Trump’s strong point remains the economy based on his successful past performance as president, specifically when it came to inflation and unemployment. Harris on the other hand has yet to present a definite economic plan perceived to be different from the “Bidenomics” of the current administration, which have been in favour of subsidies and supporting labour but which have not been universally popular. With her eye on not alienating big businesses and mainstream Americans, Harris remains engaged in a balancing act when it comes to her economic programme.
She is also still toeing a fine line on the question of the Israeli invasion of Gaza, expressing clear sympathy for the humanitarian plight of the Palestinians while asserting her unwavering support for the state of Israel. In tangible terms the question is to be translated into whether a future Harris administration would “moderate” arms supply to Israel in the current war on Gaza.
And while it is the economy and abortion that are of primary concern to the mainstream American voter, the power of various demographics in the swing states, such as labour unions, Arab Americans, East Europeans, and young voters, lies in that their choices could impact who the ultimate winner of the presidential race will be.
Right now the concern is that conflict will escalate in an already momentous and highly polarised race.
Trump has blamed the attack on rhetoric from his Democratic opponents, for having described him as a threat to democracy and used terms such as “Nazi” to describe him. In the wake of the new assassination attempt, his security had been raised to presidential level.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 September, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: