A year after the events of 7 October 2023, many consequences, both negative and positive, have impacted the Palestinians and their cause. These events have unveiled truths and documented realities that may shape the future. So where do the Palestinians and their cause stand today in the light of these events?

Over the past year, the Palestinian arena has suffered heavy human and material losses, most notably in Gaza. In contrast, the Palestinian cause has achieved significant political and legal gains that have been unprecedented before. However, Israel has blatantly revealed its true face, foreshadowing a bleak and uncertain future for the Palestinian cause.

This reality compels the Palestinians to adopt a wise strategy to confront what may be the most difficult challenges they have ever faced.

Over the past year, the Palestinians have endured more than 50,000 people killed or missing and about 100,000 wounded. Approximately two million people inside Gaza are suffering under the constant threat of death by bombardments, starvation, and the lack of medicine.

Moreover, more than 100,000 Palestinians are living in exile outside of their hometowns, facing repeated displacement in a relentless search for elusive safety. The West Bank has also not been spared, as over the past year, hundreds have died, thousands have been wounded or imprisoned, and cities and villages have been raided, homes demolished, and streets destroyed by Israel.

In addition, Palestinian communities have faced repeated terror attacks from Israeli settlers, which have tripled over the past year. The West Bank has also witnessed the highest-ever annexation of Palestinian land and settlement expansion.

Meanwhile, the Palestinian cause has experienced its strongest momentum on the international political and legal stage over the past year. It has returned to the forefront of global events, asserting itself not only in international forums but also in the streets of the most important international capitals, where hundreds of thousands have demonstrated demanding justice for Palestine.

Significant movement has also taken place in international courts in favour of the Palestinians. The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor has submitted a request for arrest warrants against the leaders of Israel, while the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is looking into the possibility of genocide committed by Israel.

During this period, the ICJ also issued a historic advisory opinion demanding that Israel withdraw from Palestinian Territories in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem, dismantle the settlements, expel the settlers, and return displaced Palestinians, as well as compensate them for the long years of occupation.

Over the past year, the halls of the United Nations have witnessed active diplomatic efforts that have yielded positive results for the Palestinian cause and reflected a growing understanding of its justice and legitimacy among the global community.

Palestine received an additional status upgrade in the UN when the General Assembly (GA), with a two-thirds majority, allowed it further privileges. The GA recognised that Palestine deserves full membership and called on the Security Council (SC) to reconsider its position, which has been obstructed due to the US veto.

In a subsequent development, the GA issued another resolution, based on the advisory opinion of the ICJ, calling on Israel to withdraw from the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

These political, diplomatic, and legal developments are in line with the sacrifices, resilience, and defiance of the Palestinian people, who have continued for long decades to endure and offer up their lives.

At the same time, Israel has explicitly revealed its intentions and agendas, which are reflected in its actual policies on the ground. Showcasing two maps during his recent speech at the UN in New York, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disregarded the existence of the West Bank, including Jerusalem, annexing it to Israel in the first map, while shading the Gaza Strip in a different colour as if it belonged to Jordan. Gaza is treated just like the West Bank as a part of Israel.

Netanyahu and his government have made no secret of their intentions to annex the West Bank, as he openly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state. His understandings with his ministers within the framework of his coalition government include transferring the administration of the West Bank from the authority of the military to civilians.

This step changes the status of the West Bank from being under Israeli military authority, as an occupied territory, to being under civilian authority, just like other areas beyond the Green Line “inside Israel”. Netanyahu and his government have also allocated large budgets to expanding settlements, legalising outposts, and arming settlers. Settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank have increased, with a significant acceleration in settlement expansions, invasions, raids, arrests, and killings.

Netanyahu has also been undermining the Palestinian Authority (PA), weakening its position and seizing its funds. Israel has justified this policy towards the PA because of its political and diplomatic activities in international forums. The PA chose an international legal and diplomatic path after Israel reneged on its obligations to the Palestinians. Following the events of 7 October last year, Netanyahu announced his intention to eliminate Hamas as one of his objectives in the war on Gaza.

This reflects a change in his strategy toward the Palestinians. In recent years, his approach has relied on maintaining the status quo by deepening the PA managing the West Bank and Hamas governing Gaza to preserve Palestinian divisions. This has ensured the political weakness of the PA, enabling Israel to escape from its obligations under the Oslo Accords and achieve the creeping annexation of the West Bank, part of Netanyahu’s long-term goals.

Over the past year, Netanyahu has continued to undermine the PA and accelerate his settlement-expansion projects, tightening his grip on the West Bank. Meanwhile, in Gaza, he is working to consolidate control over the Strip. This includes taking control of the Philadelphi Corridor, the border between Gaza and Egypt, destroying Hamas, devastating the Strip, and reducing its population through killings and promoting plans for forced displacement.

In the light of these developments, it seems that the Israeli occupation has no intention of abandoning Gaza. Israel has moved into the third phase of its assault on the Strip, having already inflicted massive destruction on the area, caused immense suffering to its people, and weakened the resistance.

At this stage, after solidifying its control over Gaza’s borders and subjecting it to a state of siege, Israel is limiting itself to small-scale ground operations while relying on airpower to achieve its objectives. This military evolution suggests Gaza will endure a prolonged state of attrition, which will further deplete its resources and cause additional losses on all levels.

This shift on the ground in Gaza has allowed Israel to prepare for its next war with Lebanon, a plan that appears to have been prearranged and was only waiting for the right moment. The situation in the West Bank is no better, where the area is likely to witness a transition to full annexation. Further escalation is expected.

These Israeli goals may not be achieved, however, especially with the survival of its enemies in the region and the continuous development of modern warfare methods and tools compared to traditional ones.

Nevertheless, these may be the most challenging days in the history of the Palestinian cause, demanding a reassessment of internal Palestinian divisions and a reevaluation of regional and international relationships.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 10 October, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly