After three weeks of unsuccessful Israeli incursions into Southern Lebanon, Hizbullah and Israel have transitioned into reciprocal targeting in what appears to be an enduring conflict in which the Lebanese group is focused on “hurting the enemy” by employing more precise missile strikes.

Following strikes in the north of Israel near Safed and Haifa, a Hizbullah drone hit the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Caesarea last week. The strike was unsuccessful because Netanyahu was not on the premise at the time. Three weeks earlier an attack was orchestrated against the same spot. On this occasion, Netanyahu was at home, but the strike was not precise.

Meanwhile, Israel continued its intensive bombing of the southern suburbs of Beirut after a period of relative calm, initially as a result of fleeting US assurances. Israeli air strikes targeted branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Foundation, a local bank in the southern suburbs of Beirut and various towns in the Beqaa Valley and the south of the country, as it viewed these as linked to Hizbullah operations.

Despite doubts about the reliability of US pledges to spare Beirut and its southern districts from bombardment, US Envoy Amos Hochstein returned to Beirut and advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict contingent upon amendments to the enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, now referred to as 1701+.

Hizbullah released a statement detailing the outcomes of its operations following the Israeli aggression against Lebanon. The group reported the deaths of 55 Israeli soldiers and 500 injuries, along with the destruction of 20 Merkava tanks and four bulldozers, all within Lebanese borders.

Absent from the report were figures regarding casualties resulting from Hizbullah’s incursions into Israeli territory. However, the group aired video clips captured by Israelis of the aftermath of missile strikes and interceptions by Israeli defences in the Galilee area and near Haifa.

Hizbullah’s missile attacks have intensified, surpassing 200 daily, and they have been targeting a range of military installations and airports near Beit Hillel, Galilee, Safed, Al-Khasira, Acre, and Haifa.

Hizbullah has shelled Israeli troops assembled for incursions into Lebanon and intercepted two Israeli drones over the south of the country, downing both. The group has extended its missile range to cover all Israel’s northern military bases with attempts also being made to reach the vicinity of Tel Aviv and targeting the Glilot Base north of the city.

Hizbullah has also been using new missiles, including the Qader 2 with a 250 km range, this being used to strike a base near Netanya, and the Nasr 1 missile with a 100 km range. It has successfully deployed drones capable of breaching Israeli air defences undetected, such as the strikes on the Golani Brigade Base in Binyamina on 13 October and on Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea on 19 October.

Israel has been persisting in its efforts to breach ground along the Lebanese-Israeli border from Shebaa in the east to Naqoura in the west. The rugged topography of the area poses challenges to its infiltration, prompting Israeli forces to target strategic high points along the borderlands.

Securing these elevated positions enables them to safeguard the surrounding lowlands, facilitating tank movements beyond Hizbullah’s firing range.

Fierce confrontations have taken place around Maroun Al-Ras in the central sector, the highest peak along the shared border. The Israeli military sought to advance from the Galilee region through the Kfar Shuba Hills, aiming to reach Khiyam, a pivotal low-lying area facilitating tank ingress under Israeli control.

Intense clashes erupted in close proximity between Hizbullah and Israeli forces in Adaisseh, Rab Thalathin, and Markaba in the east, as well as at Qawzah, Aita Al-Shaab, and Ramya in the central sector. The Israeli Air Force conducted vigorous bombardments in support of the ground incursions, targeting these regions to bolster their advances.

Despite advancing distances of two to three km at various junctures, the Israeli forces retreated following Hizbullah ambushes. Employing a tactic of temporary incursions and withdrawals due to the challenge of establishing footholds on Lebanese territory, Israel has focused on publishing images and videos of the destruction of tunnels and the seizure of weaponry to illustrate its precision operations in border villages, to which it vaguely refers as “Shia villages.”

The Israeli bombardments have escalated in intensity and scope across all Lebanese regions, with Israel broadening its targets beyond direct Hizbullah areas and alleging the presence of weapon caches, combatants, or administrative and logistical bureaus in them. On Sunday evening, the Israeli Air Force bombarded numerous residential buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut while targeting branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Foundation, resulting in extensive devastation near Beirut International Airport.

Israeli forces have persisted in harassing UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) troops in the south of the country through a fresh assault on a control tower in Marouhin in the central sector. UNIFIL reported injuries among its personnel with symptoms such as skin irritations, stomach ailments, and respiratory issues following an Israeli bombing of its Ramya headquarters last week, raising concerns over the potential use of chemical munitions.

Hizbullah has documented the deployment of internationally prohibited phosphorous munitions near the Fatima Gate, Kfar Kila, Shebaa, and Kfar Shuba before Israeli forces initiated their advances from these points. Additionally, Israeli air strikes struck a Lebanese army vehicle on the Ain Al-Hanin road, killing three Lebanese soldiers.

Israeli aircraft have intensified their bombardments of towns in the Beqaa and the south of the country, targeting hospitals, schools, and marketplaces in urban centres and resulting in killing ambulance crews, the injury of patients and medical personnel, and the partial or complete evacuation of hospitals due to nearby attacks or damage to critical departments.

The toll of Lebanese civilians has surged, with the death toll standing at 2,464 and 11,530 wounded.

Lebanon has received vital medical and relief assistance from various regional and international entities in recent days. Over the past days, 32 relief and aid planes from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, and Italy have landed in Beirut. A Turkish relief ship has contributed to the relief operations.

On the diplomatic front, a statement by Mohamed Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Shura Council, expressing Iran’s willingness to engage in negotiations with France on implementing Resolution 1701 provoked a backlash in Lebanon.

Prime Minister Najib Miqati condemned the statement as “blatant interference” and an attempt to impose Iranian influence over Lebanon, a sentiment echoed by Lebanese factions critical of Hizbullah and opposed to Iran’s involvement in the country.

Miqati’s angry response was triggered by his refusal of dual negotiation tracks concerning Lebanon, given his and Speaker of Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri’s agreement with the French government and the US administration on implementing Resolution 1701.

The impasse in reaching an agreement primarily stems from Israeli obstinacy rather than a lack of negotiation channels in Lebanon.

Last Friday, Mikati and Berri received Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the first visit of a high-ranking Western official to Beirut since the onset of the Israeli aggression a month ago.

Meloni reiterated Italy’s backing for the UNIFIL forces and advocated their protection, opposing Israeli demands for their withdrawal. She stressed Italy’s willingness to bolster the Lebanese army’s collaboration with UNIFIL south of the Litani River to ensure an exclusive armed presence in the area in accordance with Resolution 1701.

She urged a ceasefire lasting at least 21 days in both Gaza and Lebanon to halt the destruction of cities, villages, and civilian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, ongoing diplomatic initiatives in Beirut culminated in a visit by Hochstein and Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Abul-Gheit on Monday, indicating a US push for de-escalation mirrored by a shared Arab aspiration to exert pressure on Israel to compel a cessation of hostilities and a shift towards diplomatic resolutions.

Abul-Gheit did not reveal an Arab strategy, while some aspects of the Hochstein plan were leaked, proposing amendments to Resolution 1701. The modifications entail the deployment of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces south of the Litani River, with provisions allowing periodic Israeli ground access to the Lebanese borders to diminish Hizbullah’s military capabilities. The plan suggests allowing Israel to execute aerial operations across Lebanon.

The complete details of the plan have not been disclosed, but the information that has emerged appears to be being met with resistance from the Lebanese side due to concerns about it constituting a permanent violation of sovereignty and granting Israel unrestricted access into Lebanese territory at will.

Israel is counting on implementing this diplomatic strategy after it has failed over the past few weeks in executing a ground invasion.

However, the plan may well serve as a diversion for Tel Aviv to engage Lebanon in diplomatic negotiations before potentially escalating militarily. The escalation could involve unexpected incursions from unconventional points, bypassing Hizbullah’s defences.

Israeli forces have infiltrated the shared border area between Syria and the Occupied Golan Heights, a move that may prepare for a potential surprise manoeuvre, possibly involving an advance into Lebanon from the Lebanese-Syrian border rather than the Lebanese-Israeli border, assuming that Hizbullah’s defensive focus is primarily towards Israel and not Syria.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 24 October, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly