Intense diplomacy has been put in motion during the past week to secure a ceasefire to end the Israeli war on Gaza and southern Lebanon and contain possible Iranian-Israeli open-ended strikes and counterstrikes.

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, killed by the Israeli occupation army in Tel Al-Sultan in southern Gaza three weeks after the Israeli assassination of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah in southern Lebanon, prompted renewed hope on the part of the US administration that it could push for an end to Israel’s parallel wars in the Middle East.

The killings of Sinwar and Nasrallah are part of a wider assassination campaign that Israel has been pursuing against Hamas and Hizbullah leaders throughout its year-long war on Gaza and southern Lebanon. According to a well-informed Egyptian source, party to several rounds of the negotiations that have unsuccessfully attempted to end the war over the last 12 months, while the killing of leaders has weakened the resistance movements, it will not bring resistance operations to an end.

A more significant factor in possibly ending the parallel wars, he says, is Iran’s openness to considering a deal. In Tehran, a key ally of both Hizbullah and Hamas, officials have been underlining their openness to a deal on multiple diplomatic fronts, including during last week’s visit to Egypt by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, in Kazan between 22-24 October for a BRICS summit hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, will have taken the opportunity to discuss Tehran’s views on a possible Middle East deal covering Lebanon, Gaza, and the Iran-Israel front with his hosts. At the same summit, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi will also have used the opportunity to share Cairo’s views on a comprehensive deal with participating leaders.

According to the Egyptian source, Cairo has been discussing its ideas with Hamas leaders, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, and Israel. He added, however, that the main stumbling block is not a lack of possible compromises but the absence of any political will on the part of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to move towards a ceasefire.

Netanyahu, he says, wants to use the weeks remaining until the inauguration of a new US president in January 2025 to maximise military and political gains before he starts “to actually negotiate with the intention of reaching a ceasefire rather than to buy time.”

On Monday and Tuesday, the US Envoy to Lebanon Amos Hochstein and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the region to work on parallel agreements to end the wars in Lebanon and Gaza. According to informed sources, the plans Hochstein and Blinken are promoting accommodate Netanyahu’s goals to change the reality on the ground both in Gaza, especially the north, and in south Lebanon.

Borders is the word sources kept mentioning this week: Netanyahu will not stop the war before he secures a range of new border arrangements. These arrangements apply not only to Israel’s border with north Gaza and south Lebanon, but also to the Gaza-Egyptian and West Bank-Jordanian borders.

According to sources, Netanyahu has repeatedly claimed that Hamas has been using the borders with Egypt and Jordan to smuggle weapons and money.

Blinken and Hochstein’s mission, they say, includes new border arrangements and security measures that will “have to go beyond” those established in UN Security Council Resolutions and existing peace agreements. The new measures include not only advanced security technology solutions but a “reworking” of the placement and mandate of peacekeeping entities and new peacekeeping operations.

Following talks in Beirut with Lebanese officials this week, Hochstein openly said that UNSC Resolution 1701 is no longer sufficient for future security arrangements, while Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Abul-Gheit indicated openness on the part of Lebanon to consider the ideas offered by Hochstein.

According to the sources who spoke on Hochstein’s scheme, the US envoy is suggesting the disarmament of Hizbullah, pushing it 40 km away from the border with Israel, introducing a new UN mission to replace UNIFIL, and deploying the Lebanese army in the areas that Hizbullah will leave.

While the same sources say Egypt and Jordan have shown some openness to upgrading security measures along their own borders with Gaza and the West Bank, Egyptian official sources have declined to comment on the possibility of amending security measures contained in the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty.

The most difficult part of the talks, say the sources, relates to the “unequivocal intention” — as one put it — of Netanyahu to keep the Israeli army in northern Gaza “for a long time”.

Regional and international capitals have expressed concern that any attempt to re-occupy Gaza will be a permanent catalyst to re-ignite more confrontations, especially if Netanyahu bows to the plans of the Israeli far right and allows the reconstruction of Israeli settlements in north Gaza.

During talks that started on Tuesday in Israel, at the beginning of Blinken’s 10th tour to the region since the beginning of the Israeli war on 7 October 2023, the US secretary of state was expected to discuss this issue along with ways to kickstart a ceasefire by returning Israeli captives taken by Hamas on 7 October, and declaring parts of Gaza combat-free to allow for the access of desperately needed humanitarian aid.

On Monday, a report issued by the UN Human Rights Office said that Israel is unlawfully obstructing humanitarian assistance in an attempt to destroy the Palestinian population of north Gaza, and that during the first two weeks of October Israeli forces blocked essential supplies from entering, worsening an already dire situation and leaving many at risk of starvation.

The UN has also expressed deep concern over the humanitarian situation in Lebanon where over a million people have been displaced. On Monday, UN Deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq said that continued Israeli strikes and the scale of displacement had overwhelmed the capacity of Lebanon’s shelters.

According to Ahmed Morsi, political analyst and visiting fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Lebanon looks the easier prospect when it comes to pushing for a ceasefire. At the end of the day, he explained, Lebanon is a state and no matter the complexities involved in reaching a consensus over a new security deal, it is a lot more manageable than Gaza.

“And it is probably the more pressing concern for Washington, given the Iranian factor,” he continued.

Pezeshkian’s presence in Kazan, Morsi argued, provides “an opportunity for discussion over the issues involved with leaders from the region who are present for BRICS,” including President Al-Sisi and his counterparts from Turkey and the UAE.

“When it comes to the Israeli war on Gaza,” Morsi said, it is hard to think that anything can be delivered in the absence of serious pressure from the US which is what makes the Blinken visit significant: it could at least signal the start of a move towards de-escalation, which might then solidify into a ceasefire.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 24 October, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly