The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is hosting an Arab-Islamic summit next week to discuss escalation in the region. The summit will be a follow-up to a similar one held on 11 November last year, after the start of war on Gaza. The official Saudi media reported that the summit “is in line with the directives of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and in pursuit of efforts made by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohamed bin Salman in coordination with leaders of other Arab and Islamic countries.”

The language of the summit announcement is strong, matching the gravity of developments during the past year: it will “discuss the continued Israeli aggression on the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, in addition to current developments in the region”. The Saudi Press Agency reiterated the kingdom’s condemnation of “the continued, sinful Israeli aggression on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, and its expansion to include the Lebanese Republic in an attempt to undermine its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the serious repercussions of this aggression on the security and stability of the region”.

Yet many analysts in the region and beyond suspect the summit will yield no more than further calls on Israel to stop its wars while subtly offering the possibility of a peace settlement that includes normalisation in return for a two-state solution. Israel has been keen on normalising relations with Saudi Arabia the way it did with other Gulf countries before the current wars. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described peace with Saudi Arabia as the “big prize” for Israel after UAE and Bahrain signed the so-called Abraham Accords in 2020.

American efforts to have the Saudi Crown Prince on board for the drive to normalisation were actually working until the war broke out last fall. Since then, Riyadh has repeatedly stated there will not be talks on normalising relations until Israel stops its war on the Palestinians. The prospect of peace has steadily dimmed since then. Lately, the Israeli and American media reported that Netanyahu expressed his disappointment at the Saudi condemnation of the Israeli attack on Iran last month. Though the UAE also condemned the attack on Iran, the Israelis were more concerned about any rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran. Last year, China brokered a significant deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran that set the scene for restoring diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Even if Saudi Arabia is betting on the “carrot” of normalisation to persuade Israel to stop its wars, however, Andrew Hammond of Oxford University told Al-Ahram Weekly that might not work. He is not the only commentator suspicious of any peace offer being accepted by Israel. “Threatening the Israelis with no Saudi normalisation seems unlikely to stop the Israeli regime, that’s the lesson of the past year. For the Israeli right, the prize of destroying the population of Gaza and resettling some territory is worth more than a rift with Saudi Arabia,” Hammond said.

Israel previously ignored a Saudi peace initiative launched during the Beirut Arab Summit in 2002. A former Netanyahu government repeated the refusal when another Arab summit in Riyadh re-endorsed the Saudi initiative in 2007. The Saudi proposal centred on a two-state solution offering Israel recognition by the Arab countries, with peace agreements and normalisation of relations if Israel withdrew from all territories occupied since the 1967 War, provided a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem, and agreed to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia re-started the drive for the two-state solution last month by forming an “international alliance” to press for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Representatives of nearly ninety states and international organisations took part in the two-day meeting in Riyadh, according to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. The Saudi FM then described the Israeli war on Gaza as “genocide with the goal of evicting the Palestinian people from their land, which Saudi Arabia rejects”.

Whether next week’s summit will make an impact to stop the war is a big question. “There is a risk that it won’t make a difference if tough steps are not taken… There needs to be real threats and action on diplomatic and trade ties, and now is the time, given the continuing deterioration in Israel’s economy and international status,” Andrew Hammond noted. But many analysts doubt that the summit will come to this conclusion.

Saudi Arabia, like many countries in the region and around the world, might be furious about Israeli atrocities and war crimes, but the regional and international scene has significantly altered since the 1973 War, when Saudi Arabia led an oil embargo on the west to pressure against Israel, as another Western analyst commented.

The summit will take place a few days after the US presidential elections, and many expect its outcome to be affected by whoever secures their spot in the White House. But more importantly the key deciding factor will be how far the convening countries are prepared to go to stop the war and whether or not this will deter the Israelis.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 7 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly