On 5 November, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that an undisclosed number of B-52 strategic bombers had arrived in the Middle East at an undisclosed airbase.

The announcement came two days after a statement by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenai that “it is certain that Israel and the United States of America will receive an overwhelming response to what they are doing to Iran and the Resistance Front” on his Persian-language X site.

According to satellite services, there are six US B-52s based in Al-Udeid in Qatar, just 377 km from the Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran.

The last time these bombers were deployed in the Middle East was in 2015 when they supported Operation Inherent Resolve against the Islamic State (IS) group. B-52s have also been deployed many times to the Middle East in a show of force and on deterrence missions from their home bases and returned the day after.

The capabilities of the B-52 bombers can be learned from the Popular Mechanics magazine and elsewhere. “The B-52s turned out the lights in Baghdad. During Operation Desert Storm [in 1991], B-52s flew about 1,620 sorties and delivered 40 per cent of the weapons dropped by coalition forces,” it said.

The B-52 H is one of the powerful strategic bombers in history and can carry more than 30 tons of bombs. It was recently selected to carry the hypersonic missiles AGM-183 (“Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon”) that can attack targets with a maximum speed of more than seven times the speed of sound.

In addition to the B-52s, F-15 E fighters have also recently arrived in the region, specifically the 492th fighter squadron, raising the number of fighter squadrons to six from the US Air Force plus four US Navy squadrons.

It seems that these forces have been enough to change Iran’s mind about responding to Israeli attacks. AFP has reported that former speaker of the Iranian parliament Ali Larijani told local television on 7 November that “Israel aims to transfer the conflict in the region to Iran. We have to act wisely to avoid falling into this trap and not react thoughtlessly.”

“Our movements and reactions are strategically determined, so we should avoid any emotional or ill-considered responses and remain completely rational,” Larijani added.

In fact, the US has sent a clear message in its deterrence campaign not only to Iran and its militias but also to anyone who could harm Israel or might repeat last year’s 7 October attacks.

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army major general who visited Israel last week, wrote that “Israel’s reputation around the world has taken a beating. However, at the same time, terrorist attacks and Israel’s response in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have reshaped the security environment in the Middle East.”

“It is a more dangerous and unpredictable environment which will absorb the attention and resources of America and other nations in Europe and beyond,” he said. “Both Russia and China also benefit from US distraction in the Middle East as well as the degraded social cohesion in many Western nations.”

It is unlikely that Iran intends to escalate the conflict, especially with the next US president being the Republican Donald Trump, who is very hostile towards Iran and its nuclear programme.

The Wall Street Journal quoted sources familiar with Trump’s initial plans for his presidency as saying that the president-elect plans to significantly increase the sanctions on Iran and reduce its oil sales as part of a strategy aimed at undermining Tehran’s support for proxies in the Middle East and its nuclear programme.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X last Saturday that “Iran is not seeking to obtain nuclear weapons. This is a policy based on Islamic teachings and our own security calculations. Confidence-building is required on both sides. It’s not a one-way street.”

Araqchi denied US accusations of a link between Tehran and an alleged plot to kill President-elect Donald Trump, calling for confidence-building between the two adversaries.

Meanwhile Israel is showing instability in its high military ranks after the firing of minister of defence Yoav Gallant.

According to the Axios website, “Israeli minister of defence Yoav Gallant was fired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu due to their disagreement on three issues: opposition to a law exempting ultra-Orthodox men from military service; support for a deal to release hostages held by Hamas; and calling for a commission of inquiry into the security failures surrounding the October 7 attacks.”

Netanyahu said he did not admit any responsibility for the failures revealed by the 7 October attacks, but he “took responsibility” for the Israeli beeper attacks in Lebanon during a government meeting, according to Israeli media.

This could describe the Netanyahu style of crisis management, as he has not sought peace and has decided to continue fighting the war on Gaza and in Lebanon until the “decisive victory” he has promised the Israeli people.

“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America,” Netanyahu said in a statement last week welcoming the re-election of former US President Donald Trump to the White House.

Netanyahu is hoping that Trump will support him to the maximum in his wars in the region, unlike in his dealing with the outgoing Biden administration, which sometimes appeared to hesitate.

The Israeli army has succeeded in degrading and even eliminating the first and second tier of Iran’s militia commanders and destroying many weapon storage areas.

However, there are doubts about Netanyahu’s “decisive victory” strategy even if Iran has not responded to the latest Israeli attacks and Trump has been re-elected to the White House. Iran’s strategy depends on cost-effective weapons that are easy to manufacture, smuggle, and employ in large numbers, and this could lead to Iran’s support for various militias in the region not ending soon.

These topics will be priorities for the new US president when he takes office in January.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 14 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly under the title: US flexes its muscles in the Middle East