In the latest step towards growing cooperation between Syria and Iraq, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani travelled to Baghdad on 14 March to “strengthen bilateral relations” between the two countries.
On the same day, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia A-Sudani announced that Iraqi forces, backed by the US-led International Coalition, had killed Islamic State (IS) group “deputy caliph” Abdullah Maki Musleh Al-Rifai, aka Abu Khadija.
Al-Rifai served as IS governor of Iraq and Syria, head of the delegated committee responsible of implementing its policies, and head of external operations that planned and coordinated IS attacks outside Iraq and Syria. He was considered one of the world’s most dangerous terrorists and was listed by the US State Department as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist.
Unlike some other countries in the region and elsewhere, Baghdad did not rush to engage with the transitional government in Damascus, and nor did it congratulate Ahmed Al-Sharaa upon his appointment as president in the traditional phase.
However, certain regional developments have now accelerated the rapprochement between the two countries. Chief among them is the resurgence of US-Iran tensions and the Trump administration’s order of 9 March revoking the sanctions waiver that enabled Iraq to continue to purchase relatively inexpensive gas and electricity from Iran.
The decision is part of US President Donald Trump’s escalating “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
This is not the only geopolitical shift that is driving Baghdad and Damascus closer together. Israel’s military aggressiveness and expansionism have also emerged as a growing threat to Syrian and Iraqi national security.
In a cynical bid to play the minority card to advance its territorial ambitions, on 15 March Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received a delegation of 60 Syrian Druze religious leaders and declared Israel’s readiness to “protect” the Syrian Druze from the government in Damascus.
At the same time, Tel Aviv is once again threatening Iraq with strikes, ostensibly in response to the activities of pro-Iranian Iraqi Shia groups. Israel has staged numerous attacks against Iraq in the past, in 2019 in particular, but it has recently been more focused on Syria.
Another factor leading Syria and Iraq to strengthen ties is the resurgence of ISIS activities in the region, taking advantage of the security breakdown in some Syrian-Iraqi border regions. IS also carried out strikes in Damascus in February.
On 10 February, Vladimir Voronkov, Under-Secretary-General of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism, warned of the continued threat posed by IS to Syria and the wider region. In a report to the UN Security Council, Voronkov said that the volatile situation in Syria was concerning, “especially as there is a risk that stockpiles of advanced weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists.”
He noted that the risk was “particularly high” in the Syrian Badia region, the central hub for IS external operational planning. Damascus and Baghdad both understand the need to join forces against the common threat posed by a resurgent IS.
As both countries are conscious of their strategic importance as trade and energy hubs, providing direct access to Asia and Africa, this too is an incentive to foster bilateral cooperation in economy and trade.
During his meeting with his Iraqi counterpart, the Syrian foreign minister proposed a number of ambitious projects, including the development of transportation networks between the two countries. He also suggested establishing a Syrian-Iraqi Cooperation Council to oversee the follow-through on bilateral agreements, boost trade, and eliminate barriers to economic exchange, including by reopening border crossings.
Despite the security challenges to such initiatives, both countries would have much to gain from them. Iraq is in a position to become a key partner in Syrian reconstruction efforts – a mammoth task after over a decade of Civil War that resulted in $11.4 billion of losses, according to World Bank estimates.
Syria also desperately needs Iraqi oil, now that Iranian oil shipments to Syria have all but ceased following the fall of the Al-Assad regime.
Although initially slow to engage with the new regime in Damascus, Baghdad appears to have reached a resolve to reciprocate its neighbour’s push for closer ties. On 7 February, Iraqi National Security Adviser Qasim Al-Araji stated that the country’s national interest was driving Iraq’s relationship with Syria.
“Baghdad needs to cooperate closely with Syria on counterterrorism,” he said, adding that “there is no threat to Iraqi territory from the Syrian side.”
In the same spirit, Al-Sudani, in his meeting with the Syrian foreign minister on 14 March, reaffirmed Iraq’s commitment to respect the choices of the Syrian people. He underscored the importance of political and security consultations between the two countries, as well as Syria’s need for a comprehensive political process that preserves Syria’s diversity and stability.
The Iraqi stance echoes other countries’ approaches to engaging with Syria. It also seeks to leverage dialogue and cooperation to help encourage a durable political settlement in Syria, especially given that instability there would affect Iraqi national security.
From the perspective of the new regime in Damascus, Iraq is a strategic priority, not least because of its need for oil and energy resources. Iraq has become a crucial alternative source of oil since the fall of the A-Assad regime and Syria’s strategic pivot towards Turkey, which has led to sharply reduced inflows of Iranian oil.
Iraq has the largest oil reserves in the region after Saudi Arabia and Iran. While Syria also possesses sizeable oil reserves and could theoretically become self-reliant in energy, the US has not yet relinquished control over a large portion of Syria’s oil fields.
The impetus is building up behind closer cooperation between Baghdad and Damascus, chiefly in the fields of energy and counterterrorism, but also in trade.
Al-Shaibani’s landmark visit to Baghdad testifies to a shared forward-looking approach to forging a partnership to further their respective national interests. The advancement of these intersects with regional considerations, and above all with the need for security and stability as a prerequisite for fostering future cooperation and prosperity.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 20 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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