Israel launched a massive campaign of airstrikes across Syria last week, marking a dangerous escalation in its repeated bombardments of the country since the overthrow of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in December.
Israeli warplanes bombed weapons’ stores, Syrian Army positions in Al-Kiswa south of Damascus, military bases, and airports in Palmyra, Homs, and Hama. Israeli ground forces advanced further into southern Syria beyond its newly created “buffer zone,” attacking Daraa and Quneitra and reaching the outskirts of densely populated villages.
A strike in the vicinity of the village of Nawa in Daraa killed nine people and wounded over 23 others. On 3 April, thousands of people from the village and elsewhere in Daraa marched in mass funerals for the victims, condemning the Israeli aggressor and demanding its withdrawal beyond the 1974 armistice line.
Signalling Israel’s intention to carve out a larger chunk of Syrian territory, its defence minister warned that hostile forces would not be tolerated in southern Syria and that Israeli forces would remain in Jebel Al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon) indefinitely.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously indicated that Israel would keep southern Syria demilitarised. Although interim Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shibani have frequently reiterated their peaceful intentions towards Syria’s neighbours, Tel Aviv is determined to capitalise on the international and regional powers’ indulgence of its belligerence, which aims to impose a new de facto geopolitical reality.
This would see complete Israeli dominance over Syrian airspace from the south up to and beyond the capital and along the border with Lebanon, putting Syrians at the mercy of Israeli bombardments, as is now the case with the Lebanese.
Turkey remains committed to helping Damascus build a new Syrian Army and strengthen its capacities to restore security and stability in the country. Damascus and Ankara have been discussing the possibility of establishing further Turkish military bases on Syrian territory in the framework of a mutual defence agreement.
A Turkish military delegation visited Syria recently to tour potential sites. It included locations that Israel subsequently decimated, rendering them unusable by Turkey.
The new regime in Damascus has repeatedly condemned the massive ground and air assaults Israel has been carrying out across Syrian territory for months, and its condemnations have been echoed by Arab governments. However, the condemnations have no means to compel Israel to stop its attacks, apart from appealing to the international community to apply pressure on Tel Aviv, which is unlikely to be forthcoming.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has stated that Ankara has no desire to confront Israel on Syrian territory and that instead it wants to help Damascus build state institutions able to sustain stability and security.
Turkey has invested heavily in Syria over the past decade, and now it plans to reap the benefits of this, which include expanding its influence and military presence in Syria. Turkey maintained a military presence in the northern areas of Afrin and Idlib throughout most of the Civil War. Now it wants to expand this presence westwards, offering to assume responsibility for the fight against the Islamic State (IS) group as a means towards this end.
However, an expanded Turkish military presence on Syrian territory would implicitly entail the need to protect Syrian airspace from hostile incursions – in other words, from Israel. As a NATO member, Turkey cannot deploy its military abroad without taking precautions to protect its soldiers, and it must extend the range of Turkish aerial defences deeper into Syrian territory.
Israel is unlikely to accept a Turkish bid to replace Iran as the dominant foreign force in Syria, since it intends to be the dominant force itself. Israel’s long and intense campaign of strikes against Iranian targets in Syria helped pave the way for the overthrow of the Al-Assad regime in December by the radical Islamist forces that are now in power in Damascus.
Having done so much to create the current situation in Syria, even if it was not entirely intentional, Israel now aims to control every aspect of military developments there.
It appears to be determined to undermine Ankara’s plans to help Syria build a modern army in a state that monopolises the legitimate recourse to arms, which itself entails dismantling the militias that have proliferated throughout the country. Israel also intends to keep southern Syria outside of the military control of government forces, and it has even encouraged the local population to rebel against Damascus’ authority. Netanyahu has already declared that the Israeli Army is ready to defend the Syrian Druze against the government in Damascus.
However, Israel’s designs may encounter further resistance. The authorities in Damascus and the local authorities in Sweida, Daraa, and Quneitra have been studying how to integrate the armed groups in these regions into the new Syrian Army and police, which directly conflicts with Israel’s aims.
For the most part, however, the southern Syrians are caught in a silent tug-of-war between Turkey’s desire to help the Syrian government assert its sovereignty – including military sovereignty – over the whole of Syrian territory and Israel’s determination to prevent this and effectively claim southern Syria as its own.
The Israeli aggression has remained undeterred as it has pursued this aim. In addition to demolishing Syrian military infrastructure in the south, it has forcefully displaced thousands of people, established military checkpoints, built fortifications, and severed electricity and water supplies to drive villagers from their homes.
Israel has simultaneously conducted a public relations campaign, offering humanitarian aid as a way to forge connections and divide and rule. Syrian residents have rejected this ploy and have burned the aid packages that the Israeli forces have left in front of their homes.
The government in Damascus has praised the courage and resilience of the people in Daraa and Quneitra in the face of Israel’s attacks. However, beyond this it has adhered to a policy of inaction. It understands that the Israeli provocations are intended to lure it into a destructive war, much as the US used Iraq to lure Iran into a decade-long war following the Iranian Revolution that deposed the former Shah in 1979.
Meanwhile, the US, which continues to occupy eastern Syria, has yet to reveal its vision of the Syrian situation. So far, the Trump administration has not expanded on the former Biden administration’s decision in January to ease some sanctions to allow in humanitarian aid.
This step has been likened to Washington’s temporary lifting of the sanctions following the devastating earthquake in northwestern Syria in February 2023. The lifting of the sanctions to enable the influx of construction equipment and the unrestricted transfer of funds to the Syrian Central Bank is vital to Syrian reconstruction and recovery efforts.
Last month, Reuters reported, citing both Syrian and US sources, that during the donors conference in Brussels last month, the Trump administration handed the Syrian foreign minister a list of US conditions that could convince it to soften its stance towards Damascus.
These included the elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal, serious efforts to fight IS, and halting the promotion of foreign militia fighters to positions in the Syrian military and security agencies. It is unclear whether the list also includes conditions regarding relations between Damascus and Tel Aviv, but US President Donald Trump’s obsequiousness towards Israel is well known.
During his first administration, Trump recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Occupied Syrian Golan Heights, even though this flouts international law. His current administration’s stance towards Damascus may be linked to a design to use the promise of lifting sanctions to compel Syria to sign a peace agreement with Israel and allow the latter to retain the Occupied Golan.
Perhaps the power that has some leverage to offset the Israeli influence over Washington on Syria is its fellow NATO member Turkey. Ankara is in a position to market its vision for Syrian stability and security to the Americans using the counterterrorism/IS card.
By increasing its military presence in central Syria, Turkey could create a military barrier that would prevent IS sleeper cells in eastern Syria from infiltrating other parts of the country. However, in order to do this, Ankara needs a green light from Washington, both to increase its military profile and to arm and train the nascent Syrian Army for these tasks.
A decision by Washington to go against Israeli plans to keep Syria fragmented would be crucial. If Turkey can persuade Trump to transfer counterterrorism activities from the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria to the Syrian government under Ankara’s sponsorship, Turkey will be able to gain greater military manoeuvrability in Syria.
Trump would also at last be able to fulfil his promise to bring US troops home from Syria. If he leans towards the Israeli narrative, on the other hand, Israel will gain greater manoeuvrability to pursue its expansionist designs, and it will be able to acquire more territory in southern Syria.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 10 April, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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