“These talks are gaining momentum and now even the unlikely is possible,” the Omani Minister Badr Al-Busaidi posted on X, following the second round of talks between Iran and the US in Rome on Saturday.
There was no official statement on the American side, but a Trump administration official told Israeli media after the talks ended: “Today, in Rome over four hours in our second round of talks, we made very good progress in our direct and indirect discussions… We agreed to meet again next week and are grateful to our Omani partners for facilitating these talks and to our Italian partners for hosting us today.”
That statement by a US official implies that the American and Iranian negotiators met face to face, though the Iranians still insist the talks are taking place indirectly through Omani mediators. Talks in the Omani ambassador’s residence in Rome had the same structure as the first round in Muscat the week before, with the US president’s envoy Steve Witkoff leading the American delegation, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi leading the other side’s delegation and the Omani foreign minister mediating.
After the talks Araghchi told Iranian media, “it was a good meeting, and I can say that the negotiations are moving forward. This time we managed to reach a better understanding on a series of principles and goals… It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
Washington has been sending mixed messages on the future prospects of an Iran deal. Last week, Witkoff first suggested Iran could enrich uranium at 3.67 per cent (the level agreed on in the previous deal), but later said that all enrichment must stop. The New York Times published a report this week concluding, “Trump is edging toward reviving an old deal”, in reference to the Obama administration agreement of 2015.
According to Iranian official statements, so far the talks have been mainly about Iran stopping enrichments to the current level, claimed to be at 60 per cent and close to weapons-grade uranium, which is 90 per cent enriched. In return, the crippling sanctions on Tehran will be lifted. Iran is also open to transferring the stockpile of highly enriched uranium it now possesses to another country – most likely Russia.
In its annual threat assessment report last month, the US intelligence community concluded that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had not re-authorised the nuclear weapons programme he suspended in 2003. But the IEA maintains that Iran could be weeks from producing a bomb with the level of enrichment it reached and the stockpile it holds. Israel has set this as a plausible pretext to attack Iran.
Trump has been vague about the strategic objectives of the negotiations, other than to repeat that Iran must never have a bomb. Iran hawks in his team, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, call for the “full dismantlement of Iranian nuclear facilities.” They want any deal to include stopping Iranian long-range missiles programmes and prevent it from supporting militant groups in the region. But on the eve of the Rome meeting, Trump said, “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon… I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Israel has been lobbying for destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, probably in a joint strike with the Americans. Last week, information was leaked to American media that suggested Trump stopped Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from carrying out a plan to attack Iran. Some in Israel suspect it was Netanyahu or his office that leaked the story in an effort to cloud the current talks between Washington and Tehran.
Analysis and commentary in the Israeli media show a sort of dismay that Trump might be pursuing a quick deal. Reports mentioned that Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was also in Rome on Saturday and was spotted at the same hotel where Witkoff was staying. It is unclear whether that was a coincidence, with no indication that Dermer was part of the Iran talks. Dermer, a top adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli intelligence, Mossad Chief David Barnea, held talks Friday with Witkoff in Paris.
Some commentators in the Gulf doubt that talks would lead to a deal, especially if Israel is against one that stops short of dismantling the whole nuclear programme and stopping Iran from developing ballistic missiles. Those commentators reflect the stance of the Abraham Accords group in the region, yet they would not trust Trump’s actions. They fear that Washington might side with Iran the way Trump has done with Russia on Ukraine, as one of them put it to Al-Ahram Weekly.
The mood in Israel is sour, especially after each round of talks with Iran is billed a step forward. In response to reports about a possible Israeli “limited” strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, regardless of talks with the US, Iran’s foreign minister dismissed the idea. Araghchi told the Russian RT television that “even with the support and help of the US, the occupying regime will not be capable of carrying out military actions against the Islamic Republic.” In fact, Israel carried many attacks on Iran before, involving bombing sites and assassinating scientists and others in Iran.
A veteran Western diplomat who served in the region before expects a deal to be reached with concessions on both sides. He told Al-Ahram Weekly, “Trump is after money. If he realises he can make a few billion from Iranian contracts to American companies or from the Iranian energy sector he’ll go for a deal. Washington takes Israeli concerns about its security seriously, but Trump might be sceptical about the intelligence community and its reports and would use the assertion that Tehran is not developing a nuclear bomb to curb Israeli opposition to a deal.”
Yet Israel can still sabotage a deal. The Israeli media this week carried reports suggesting that the US-Iran talks were expected to collapse. Whether this is wishful thinking or intent to sabotage the talks, Israeli pressure to keep Iran in check has not let up. The media outlet Israel Hayom said that “a non-governmental Israeli source spoke with a senior American official who said, ‘Israel need not be concerned about the progress of talks with Iran.’ According to the official, once the Americans present their full list of demands, the negotiations are expected to collapse.”
It is not clear if the technical discussions in Muscat this week will be confined to the issues of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and sanctions or include new American demands concerning Iran’s ballistic missiles or other matters.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 24 April, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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