Since the passing of Roman Catholic Pope Francis at the age of 88 after 12 years in office as bishop of Rome and spiritual leader of the world’s Roman Catholics, media attention has focused on the question of his successor.
Following his grand funeral, attended by hundreds of thousands of the faithful and numerous leaders from across the globe last week, the Vatican now faces the complex task of electing a new pope under particularly challenging circumstances.
For centuries, European Cardinals, particularly those from Italy, dominated the College of Cardinals that elects the pope. Pope Francis, a Jesuit from Argentina, was the first non-European to ascend to the Papacy in nearly 13 centuries.
One of his predecessors, Pope John Paul II, a Pole, was the first non-Italian to occupy the Papacy in 500 years. The first non-European Cardinal to vote in the College of Cardinals was James Gibbons of Baltimore, an American, who exercised his right to vote in the 1903 conclave.
For the first time in history, Europeans have now lost their numerical majority in the college, now accounting for just 40 per cent of voting members. The college currently consists of 252 Cardinals, though only 139 are eligible to vote, as those over 80 years of age at the time of the pope’s death are excluded from the process. This will result in the most diverse College of Cardinals the Roman Catholic Church has ever witnessed.
The current college comprises Cardinals from 16 African and 17 Asian countries, including three from the Philippines and four from India. From Latin America, where Roman Catholicism predominates, the Cardinals hail from 11 countries – seven from Brazil and four from Argentina. There are also 11 American Cardinals and four Canadians.
Eighty per cent of the current Cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis during his Papacy. Some observers argue that he was not entirely outside a European context, as he was born to Italian parents who emigrated to Argentina, arguably the most European nation in Latin America, both culturally and demographically.
As a result, his background may not have been so distinct from that of his European predecessors. Despite his strong advocacy for immigrants and the oppressed, primarily from the Third World, it may not be correct to see Pope Francis as representative of the Global South.
For centuries, Europe was the heart of Roman Catholicism, but the epicentre has slowly shifted towards Latin America. Today, this different demographic reality may lead to radical change within a few years.
While Catholicism maintains a significant presence in the US and Canada, projections suggest that by 2050, 78 per cent of the world’s Catholics will reside in Latin America, Asia, and Africa, all countries of the Global South. By mid-century, African Christianity is also expected to represent 40 per cent of the global Christian population, and many observers believe that the future of Catholicism, more so than any other Christian denomination, will also be African.
Despite this shift towards the Global South, however, the authority of the Catholic Church remains firmly rooted in the West. The last pope born in Africa was Pope Gelasius I, who died in 496 CE over 1,500 years ago.
Africa, in particular, stands as a focal point for traditional power within the church and remains committed to traditional teachings. The majority of African Cardinals are resolutely opposed to homosexuality and LGBTQ rights, for example, and their leading candidates for the Papacy are not generally associated with demands for social justice, something which the continent largely lacks.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson of Ghana, 76, widely considered a strong contender to succeed Pope Francis, has voiced support for the anti-homosexuality legislation enacted by his country in early 2024. Similarly, Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, 79, has been outspoken in his opposition to what he terms “gender ideology” and has rejected any theological dialogue with Islam.
Should the Roman Catholic Church lean towards more “liberal” candidates, particularly those who support the acceptance of homosexuality, it is unlikely that African Cardinals, and most of their Asian counterparts, will have a viable path to the Papacy.
The majority of African candidates also oppose the ordination of women, a stance that diverges from the views of several Europeans, where candidates, such as Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça from Portugal, support feminist rights and are vocal about gender equality.
De Mendonça is known for his progressive stances on issues such as same-sex marriage and the ordination of women, although his advocacy for social justice does not match the legacy of the late Pope Francis. However, his relative youth – he is still under 60 – poses a significant hurdle to his ascension to the Papacy, as many senior Vatican officials are wary of a long pontificate lasting 20 to 30 years.
A shorter term of around 10 years would allow the church’s ruling bodies to guide the Vatican towards evolving trends, providing the flexibility needed to respond to the social, political, and economic transformations of the time. In such a rapidly changing world, a shorter pontificate could enable the church to adapt and shift its course in a way that minimises harm and enables it to remain relevant.
On the other hand, the Vatican is reluctant to elect a pope from Europe, particularly from Italy, such as Cardinal Matteo Zuppi. Zuppi is concerned with addressing the challenges of secularisation in the European churches, media commentators say, while some observers believe the battle against secularism in Europe is lost. The church, therefore, should focus on its future in the more youthful and “traditional” regions of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, they say.
One potential compromise candidate is Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle of the Philippines. He represents a non-European perspective, reflecting the majority of the world’s Catholics, and is more focused on social justice issues affecting the Global South and the developing world than divisive debates on sexual identity.
His deep involvement in the socio-political realities of the Philippines, a country with a longstanding class hierarchy, positions him as a leader in touch with the lived experiences of many Catholics in the Global South.
Another prominent candidate is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state and one of the most powerful figures within the Holy See. His pragmatism and global awareness are seen as key strengths, though critics argue that these qualities may come at the cost of doctrinal purity.
Despite his strong opposition to same-sex marriage, as seen in his denunciation of Ireland’s law on the issue as “a defeat for humanity,” his more moderate positions could alienate some voters who favour a more doctrinally conservative pope. The shift in power outside Italy since the election of Pope John Paul II in 1978 might further complicate his path to the Papacy.
Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, a key figure in Catholic-Orthodox relations, holds more traditional views on issues such as homosexuality and migration, particularly rejecting the acceptance of migrants for fear of human trafficking. His alignment with Hungary’s right-wing prime minister may also complicate his chances.
US Cardinal Robert Prevost is another potential contender. Known as a reformer and president of the Latin American Episcopal Conference, Prevost has spent much of his career in Peru. He has faced criticisms over allegations of covering up sexual abuse in his diocese that he has strongly denied.
Ultimately, the College of Cardinals will be tasked with navigating a complex landscape of competing priorities and controversial figures. With no clear frontrunner, they will need to reach a consensus that can guide the Vatican through a period of uncertainty and, ideally, bring a sense of renewal to the church.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 1 May, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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