Egypt is leading diplomatic efforts to control the fallout from the official end of Iran’s nuclear deal with the West, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). To discuss developments relating to Iran’s nuclear issue, Badr Abdelatty, the Egyptian foreign minister, conducted separate phone calls with Abbas Araqchi, the Iranian foreign minister, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy for Middle East Affairs.
An Egyptian Foreign Ministry statement on Saturday described these consultations “as part of Egypt’s ongoing efforts to support security, stability, and de-escalation in the region and to build on the momentum created by the Cairo Agreement signed between Iran and the IAEA on 9 September.”
Iranian media reported that during the conversations all parties “emphasised the need to continue efforts aimed at reducing tensions, fostering mutual trust, and creating the conditions conducive to resuming negotiations between Iran and the United States with the aim of reaching a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme – one that considers the interests of all parties and contributes to regional security and stability.”
JCPOA, signed between Iran and six major powers in 2015, officially ended on 18 October following the European signatories triggering the “snapback mechanism” more than a month ago. The termination day of the deal was set for exactly ten years after the adoption of Resolution 2231, enshrined by the United Nations Security Council, in the event of it not being extended. The three European signatories of JCPOA (E3) – UK, France and Germany – held talks with Iran to revive diplomacy, but failed to reach any tangible results.
That transpired in the wake of Israel and the US attacking Iran over 12 days in June, claiming to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. Since then, Iran has hardened its position on nuclear issues anticipating the resumption of full international sanctions eased under JCPOA. The US previously withdrew from the agreement in 2018, during Trump’s first term.
Since the US withdrawal from the deal, Tehran has increased the level of uranium enrichment to almost 60 per cent purity – not far from weapons-grade fuel. As the agreement officially ended, Iran said it is no longer bound by restrictions on its nuclear programme but reiterated its commitment to diplomacy. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday that from now on “all of the provisions (of JCPOA), including restrictions on the Iranian nuclear programme and related mechanisms, are considered terminated.” The statement added, “Iran firmly expresses its commitment to diplomacy.”
Iran has repeatedly said it is willing to resume negotiations with the US, halted by the June attacks, and for his part Trump stresses that he expects Tehran to come to the negotiating table. During his short visit to the region last week, Trump even boasted that Iran will finally join the Abraham Accords, referring to the 2020 normalisation agreement between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
Israel maintains its position, claiming Iran is seeking the production of a nuclear bomb and pressing for another war on Iran in the hope of achieving regime change. It appears that the Trump administration does not share the same sentiment, however, at least for now. Iran’s Gulf neighbours are not pressing for destabilisation and have started opening up to warmer relations with Tehran.
A Dubai-based analyst told Al-Ahram Weekly that Iran keeps repeating the same mistakes by “bluffing about negotiations with the West, then giving in and providing concessions.” He noted that such a strategy has cost Iran a lot, leading to decades of sanctions and deteriorating economic conditions. Gulf leaders, especially in UAE and Saudi Arabia, always tell Iran to accept a deal that restricts its nuclear activity to peaceful purposes in return for re-integration into the global system. That would have been the better option for both the Iranian people and for Iran’s Arab neighbours in the Gulf, who want to see an end to Iran’s interference in their affairs through proxy groups and militias.
The Iranian leadership understands that the re-imposition of severe sanctions will make the lives of Iranians worse. The economy is already in dire straits with inflation rocketing and the value of the national currency nose-diving.
The war on Iran in June might have won the regime much needed popular support as it was forced to fight foreign aggression. Despite this, the Iranian people are suffering from the economic consequences of sanctions. This can only be expected to grow worse with more sanctions taking effect. An Isfahani trader, who wanted his name withheld for fear of persecution, says that people could “endure rocketing living costs to a limit” but that can’t go on forever. He told the Weekly that living conditions “are getting worse by the day, and sanctions will impact ordinary people more than the regime”. Yet he stressed that Iranians have “national pride that enables them to resist any foreign pressures, but there is a limit as we’re not suicidal”.
All parties, except for Israel, talk publicly about their readiness to negotiate a deal that stops Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for lifting sanctions and rehabilitating the Islamic Republic into the international community. But reaching a new deal between Tehran and the West might not be an easily achievable goal. Any such deal will probably require Iran to board the normalisation train, which hardliners strongly oppose. So, as many Western analysts suggest, without regime change in Tehran it will be hard to reach a new comprehensive deal.
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