Pressure is mounting as the deadline set by the Trump administration to disarm Hizbullah draws to a close with the year’s end.
Meanwhile, Israeli bombardment against Lebanon is intensifying, the financial and economic situation can hardly withstand further complications, the security environment is fragile, and national unity is far from being in a position to confront exceptional challenges.
On Monday, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir announced that the occupation army is establishing security positions in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. The occupation forces have also maintained their presence at five locations, claiming they are “strategic”, in violation of the terms of the ceasefire reached in late November 2024, which stipulates that Hizbullah withdraw north of the Litani River in return for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory. In addition to those five points, Israeli forces continue to occupy the Shebaa Farms area, and Israeli warplanes continue to strike Lebanese sites on the pretext that they belong to Hizbullah.
Over the weekend, Israeli aircraft conducted more than 12 air raids on Southern Lebanon in violation of last year’s US-brokered ceasefire. Ongoing Israeli shelling has resulted in the deaths of 336 civilians and the injury of nearly 1,000.
The UN has repeatedly condemned such Israeli violations, which have turned the November agreement into a “one-sided truce,” in the words of the Lebanese press.
The war in which Hizbullah became involved “in support of Gaza,” from October 2023 until the November 2024 truce, has caused the deaths of approximately 3,800 Lebanese, displaced more than 1.5 million people, and inflicted economic losses estimated at $3 billion.
So far, nothing suggests that the war has ended in the villages along the Lebanese-Israeli border: no signs of a mass return to the evacuated villages and no preparations for postwar reconstruction, which typically follow the end of hostilities.
It has become known that Lebanon will not receive funds unless Hizbullah disarms, a step the party refuses to take north of the Litani River, despite the Lebanese government’s approval of a plan to ensure the state’s monopoly on recourse to arms, primarily targeting Hizbullah but also smaller groups across Lebanon.
Hizbullah’s weapons are also being presented as the price of “peace” with Israel, as claimed by the Tel Aviv press, though this outcome is far from guaranteed.
According to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Lebanon has moved towards direct negotiations with Israel in an effort to avert war. Meanwhile, the US Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa, stated, “Lebanon sitting down to negotiate with a long-standing enemy does not mean that Israeli strikes will stop.”
Both Lebanon and Israel have announced the appointment of civilian members to a committee that had previously been limited to military officials, tasked with monitoring the implementation of the 2024 ceasefire. The two civilian members — Simon Karam, a lawyer and former Lebanese ambassador to the US, and Uri Resnick, deputy director of foreign policy at Israel’s National Security Council — took part in the meeting two weeks ago.
In addition to Lebanon and Israel, the committee includes representatives of the US, France, and UNIFIL. Lebanon and Israel have no diplomatic relations and have officially been in a state of war since 1948.
At present, neither the Lebanese government nor the national army is willing or able to confront Hizbullah or disarm it. A confrontation is likely to lead to tensions that may trigger a civil war.
On the other hand, if Hizbullah fails to implement plans for the state’s monopoly on arms, Israel will exploit the situation to launch a war on Lebanon on the pretext of the state’s “procrastination” in disarming Hizbullah, even if the group’s capabilities no longer pose a real threat to Israel.
During the war, Hizbullah lost its long-time secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, who had led the movement for three decades, along with large numbers of its top-tier political and military leaders, and much of its infrastructure, weaponry and combat experience was destroyed.
Rabha Seif Allam, an expert on Lebanese affairs, said “the disarmament of Hizbullah cannot take place before the end of the year, nor within a few short months. It first requires political consensus, as well as complex logistical preparedness and strong economic support. Accelerating disarmament without these conditions, which themselves require time, could lead to internal strife of unknown proportions, or a resumption of intense Israeli bombardment — in other words, a return to the pre-ceasefire status quo,” she added.
However, Israeli pressure is not aimed primarily at disarming Hizbullah so much as igniting a war that Israel believes it can win by destroying as much life in Lebanon as possible, allowing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to present himself as victorious — something he has been unable to persuade Israelis of in the case of Gaza, despite having rendered life there nearly impossible.
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