Fire at Omsk oil refinery as the region’s governor says the province came under attack from Ukrainian drones, in Omsk
The Ukraine war has entered another critical phase in the buildup to the NATO Summit in Turkey. While the situation escalates on the battlefield, it is expected that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet US President Donald Trump on the fringe of the summit to discuss the war, military assistance, and possible pathways towards ending the conflict. Meanwhile Ukraine is expanding long-range drone strikes inside Russia, and Moscow is intensifying missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, demonstrating the widening scope of the conflict and the urgency of international diplomatic efforts.
One significant development has been Ukraine’s expansion of long-range attacks deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian forces have increasingly relied on domestically produced drones and precision strike capabilities to target oil terminals, fuel depots, military facilities and logistical infrastructure. Recent reports indicate that Ukrainian drones struck a major oil terminal in St Petersburg while also targeting military-related infrastructure in Kronstadt. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described these operations as part of a strategy of “long-range sanctions” designed to reduce Russia’s ability to finance and sustain its military campaign. Russian authorities reported intercepting dozens of drones around the city, highlighting the growing reach of Ukrainian capabilities.
These operations point to a broader shift in Ukrainian strategy. Rather than relying solely on defending frontline positions, Kyiv is increasingly attempting to disrupt Russia’s logistics, energy production and military supply chains far behind the front. The latest Ukrainian escalation centres on expanding drone operations against strategic Russian infrastructure instead of launching conventional large-scale offensives. Recent Ukrainian strikes have reportedly targeted oil storage facilities, military installations, energy infrastructure and transportation hubs that support Russian military operations. The objective is to raise the economic and operational costs of Russia’s campaign while forcing Moscow to divert additional air defence systems away from active battlefronts. Military analysts note that Ukraine’s expanding domestic drone production has enabled more frequent long-range operations despite ongoing shortages in conventional artillery ammunition.
Russia has responded with intensified missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities. One of the largest recent assaults targeted Kyiv, causing extensive destruction, civilian casualties and widespread damage to the infrastructure. Emergency crews spent days conducting rescue operations after the attacks, searching damaged residential buildings and clearing debris. The strikes prompted Zelenskyy to renew calls for additional Western air defence systems, particularly Patriot missile batteries and interceptor missiles capable of defending Ukrainian cities against increasingly sophisticated aerial attacks. European leaders strongly condemned the attacks and reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine with military and financial assistance. Russia has maintained that these strikes are responses to Ukrainian attacks inside Russian territory, reflecting the increasingly reciprocal nature of long-range operations conducted by both sides.
Heavy combat continues across eastern and northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces claim incremental advances in parts of the Donetsk region, including the capture of settlements near strategic corridors. Ukrainian officials have disputed several of these claims, arguing that some announcements are disinformation operations rather than confirmed territorial gains. Meanwhile, Russian attacks around the Sumy region and other northern areas continue through attacks combining glide bombs, artillery fire, missile strikes and drone attacks and aimed at both military positions and civilian infrastructure. Neither side has achieved a decisive breakthrough, resulting in a prolonged war of attrition with heavy casualties, constant exchanges and repeated attempts to weaken the opponent’s logistical and defensive capabilities.
Drone technology continues reshaping the battlefield and has become one of the defining features of the conflict. Ukraine has significantly expanded the production of unmanned long-range aerial systems capable of reaching hundreds of kilometres into Russian territory. Russia, meanwhile, continues to deploy large numbers of attack drones alongside cruise missiles and ballistic missiles against Ukrainian infrastructure. This technological competition has forced both countries to invest heavily in electronic warfare, air defence systems, and counter-drone technologies. Analysts increasingly view drone warfare as one of the most significant military developments in the conflict, allowing relatively inexpensive systems to threaten strategic military installations, economic assets and critical infrastructure far behind the front lines.
Western governments continue to reaffirm their support for Ukraine despite growing concerns over the possibility of further escalation. European leaders have condemned the recent Russian missile attacks while emphasising continued military assistance. Ukraine has renewed requests for additional air defence systems, interceptor missiles, long-range weapons, and financial support to sustain both civilian resilience and military operations. Discussions within NATO and among European partners remain focused on strengthening Ukraine’s defensive capabilities while seeking to avoid direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.
Despite ongoing diplomatic contacts involving several international partners, negotiations are still stalling. Various governments continue to explore opportunities for renewed peace discussions, but both Moscow and Kyiv maintain fundamentally different conditions for any settlement. Ukraine insists that Russian attacks must cease before meaningful negotiations can progress, while Russia continues to pursue its military objectives alongside diplomatic engagement. The latest escalation by both sides has complicated prospects for an immediate ceasefire, and there is little indication that either government is prepared to make major concessions in the near future.
The humanitarian impact of the conflict remains severe. Repeated missile and drone attacks continue damaging residential neighbourhoods, hospitals, schools, energy infrastructure and transportation networks. Millions of Ukrainians remain displaced while reconstruction needs are growing as critical infrastructure suffers repeated attacks. International humanitarian organisations provide emergency assistance, although security conditions frequently complicate relief operations in frontline regions and areas subjected to regular aerial bombardment.
The latest developments suggest that the conflict is entering an increasingly complex phase characterised by reciprocal long-range strikes, expanding drone warfare and sustained frontline combat. Ukraine’s recent escalation reflects a strategic effort to impose higher costs on Russia by targeting energy infrastructure, logistical hubs, and military facilities deep inside Russian territory. Russia has responded with intensified missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities, reinforcing a cycle of escalation that shows little sign of ending in the near future. While international support for Ukraine remains substantial, diplomatic efforts continue to face significant obstacles. Military analysts generally expect both sides to maintain pressure while avoiding actions that could trigger a broader international confrontation. For now, the battlefield remains fluid, with neither side demonstrating the capacity to achieve a decisive military victory in the immediate future. Instead, the war appears likely to continue as a prolonged contest of endurance, industrial capability, technological innovation and international political support.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 9 July, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
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