On 29 July, the US and Saudi Arabia carried out joint air strikes against bases belonging to Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF), an umbrella organisation comprising numerous armed factions, some of which are aligned with Iran.
The attacks raised fears that the war that began in the Gulf in February this year could now expand further as Saudi Arabia enters the conflict.
Since Israel and the US launched the war against Iran five months ago, Riyadh has exercised restraint, while holding fast to the slogan “do not test our patience.” Keen to avoid being drawn into the war, it has kept channels of communication open with Tehran even after Iranian-linked drones targeted its oil sector.
However, a wave of Houthi missile strikes against Saudi Arabia followed by drone attacks by Iran-aligned militias in Iraq appear to have changed Riyadh’s calculus. Even so, the joint US-Saudi air sorties against sites linked to PMF factions fell far short of what Riyadh’s adversaries sought – the Kingdom’s embroilment in a full-scale war.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) released a statement on 29 July saying that “US Central Command and the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces conducted precision strikes in Iraq, July 28, against Iran-aligned terrorists that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directed to attack US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure.”
“US and Saudi fighter aircraft struck multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq in a strong response to over 30 IRGC-directed aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours.”
Echoing the CENTCOM statement, the Saudi Ministry of Defence confirmed that Saudi forces had participated in the strikes against “Iran-aligned terrorist militias” in Iraq.
According to the PMF Commission, 20 of its members were killed and 32 were wounded in “the joint US-Saudi aggression”. It confirmed that its facilities and equipment had sustained “varying degrees of material damage” as a result of the attacks that struck the governorates of Baghdad, Wasit, Nineveh, Basra, Kirkuk, Karbala, and Diyala.
The Iraqi presidency released a statement condemning the bombardment of PMF bases across the country, describing it as “an unacceptable act of aggression, a flagrant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty, and an attack on its official security institutions.”
The statement did not identify those responsible for the aggression. However, it added that “we reaffirm our firm position rejecting the use of Iraqi territory as a staging area for attacks against neighbouring countries or for settling regional and international scores.”
Before the joint US-Saudi strikes, Riyadh said that over the previous two days it had intercepted drones launched by PMF-linked groups towards Saudi oil facilities and that it had called on Iraq to prevent its territory from being used to stage attacks against the Kingdom.
The government in Baghdad announced that it had opened an investigation into the drone attacks, while the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is comprised of Iran-aligned factions, denied carrying out any military operation against Saudi Arabia.
For over a decade, Riyadh has focused on opening the country to foreign investment and transforming it into a leading regional economic power. The resulting need for regional stability was among the factors that led Riyadh to pursue de-escalation with Tehran, culminating in a Chinese-brokered agreement to restore diplomatic relations in 2023.
Immediately afterwards, Saudi Arabia moved to deepen the truce with the Houthis in Yemen.
Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia remains at the heart of a volatile region that is unlikely to see stability. It has therefore spent billions of dollars to upgrade its armed forces, creating one of the region’s most advanced and best equipped militaries.
According to Saud Al-Khalidi, a Saudi researcher, “the government’s primary strategic objective is to modernise the state, society, and economy to the highest possible levels. This cannot be achieved by becoming embroiled in war, regardless of its scale, intensity, or participants.”
However, Riyadh has recently had to reassess its position. After the US and Israel launched the war against Iran and Iran responded by asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia needed to offset the resulting risk to its exports. Saudi Arabian oil production plays a vital role in maintaining stability in global energy markets.
Faced with the choice between military action or fulfilling its responsibilities on energy security, it chose to reroute a large portion of its oil through its Red Sea ports via the East-West oil pipeline.
This strategy soon faced a new challenge when the Houthis fired missiles at two Saudi oil terminals on the Red Sea last week. Satellite imagery and geolocation videos show that one of these facilities, the terminal at Jazan near the Saudi-Yemeni border, sustained severe damage.
Prior to this, on 23 July, the Houthis struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea to enforce the blockade they had declared against Saudi shipping through the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis described these attacks as a response to the Saudi bombardment of the runway at Sanaa International Airport. Riyadh denied carrying out that attack while the internationally recognised Yemeni government has claimed responsibility for it.
Saudi Arabia plans to increase its oil exports via the Red Sea to approximately nine million barrels per day over the next three years. However, tankers leaving Yanbu for Asian markets must pass through the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, which means that roughly three-quarters of Saudi oil exports via the Red Sea are at risk of being disrupted by the Houthis.
Al-Araji believes that the Houthis are pursuing a policy of provocation to extract political and economic concessions. It remains unclear whether they would turn their backs on their Iranian patrons in exchange for Saudi money.
Al-Khalidi said if Saudi Arabia enters the war, “this would be catastrophic for the world given Riyadh’s role as a principal guarantor of global energy security.”
Al-Araji saw the even darker and more destructive prospect of “an endless Sunni-Shia war in which no one would emerge victorious. Every extremist wishes for this, while any rational person rejects the very thought of it.”
He referred to statements on Alhurra channel to the effect that the Syrian government, led by Interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa (himself once designated an international terrorist by several Western countries), would strike Iran-aligned factions in Iraq if Syria were attacked from Iraqi territory.
The Syrian authorities are not looking for another war at present, as they are focused on consolidating their control over the whole of Syrian territory, he said. But once they do so, they may intend to confront those whom they regard as their enemies, primarily the Shia.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 August, 2026 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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