This winter is likely to mark the watershed in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is not just because of the effects of Western sanctions which have begun to backfire on the countries that imposed them in the form of the dwindling fuel supplies in Europe as a harsh winter sets in. Public opinion has begun to shift in ways that will make it increasingly hard for European governments to sustain vast expenditures and arms flows to protract Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia. 

It is no surprise that a main locus of the shift is to be found in Italy, now governed by a coalition led by the far right politician Giorgia Meloni, an ardent supporter of Ukraine. Rome has been swept by massive protests, tens of thousands strong, calling for a halt to arms and money that are draining national resources in order to protract the war. Demonstrators were carrying signs reading “Stop the weapons. Stop the sanctions. Diplomacy now!” 

Commentators warn that the longer the proxy war continues the greater the risk of the use of nuclear arms. The demonstrations erupted only two weeks after Meloni assumed power. Although she reaffirmed her commitment to continued support for Ukraine, her coalition partners, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, oppose that policy. The protests will lend impetus to that wing of the government opposed to supporting Ukraine indefinitely and in favour of diplomacy. 

Similar demonstrations have taken place in Germany. Some are part of an antiwar movement that has entered its ninth month. Kyiv’s continued maximalist stance and refusal to negotiate with Moscow makes it impossible for any initiative to resolve the war diplomatically to gain traction. 

The Washington Post recently reported that the US government had privately urged Ukraine to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia. The article added that the aim was not to push Ukraine to the negotiating table but rather it was a “calculated attempt” to ensure the government in Kyiv maintained the support of other countries facing growing opposition to the prospect of fuelling the war for many years to come. 

Perhaps European public opinion will be the key to bringing the war to an end. 

*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 November, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.