Singapore hosted the 20th edition of the Shangri-La Security Dialogue, one of the most important security fora in the world today and no less important than the Munich Security Conference, on 2 to 4 June. The dialogue focuses on Asian security and defence questions and is organised by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
This year’s dialogue centred on US-Chinese relations and the impact of the increasingly tense relations between the two powers on the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific Region that includes the Indian Ocean.
The main guests were Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, guest speaker this year, and a host of senior military, defence, and government officials from 54 countries. However, all eyes were on two prominent defence chiefs at the dialogue, namely US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and new Chinese Minister of Defence Li Shangfu.
The two men shook hands at a dinner occasion, but they did not hold the bilateral meeting that the US administration had proposed. This was turned down because of US sanctions against Shangfu that date back to 2018 during the previous Trump administration. The reason given by the US at that time was that Shangfu had facilitated the transfer of Russian planes to China.
The Chinese made it clear that it would not be advisable to hold a meeting between the top US and Chinese officials while their top-rank military commander remained subject to US sanctions. Prior to the Dialogue, US President Joe Biden had said that his administration was considering lifting the sanctions on Shangfu, but this did not materialise.
Last year, Austin had a meeting with former Chinese minister of defence Wei Fenghe in the first such high-level meeting between military leaders from the two sides. However, US-Chinese relations have grown more tense during the last 12 months despite the summit meeting that took place between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping last November in Bali, where the two leaders were attending the G20 Summit meeting.
The high-profile visit by then speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan last August and the meeting in San Francisco between her successor, Kevin McCarthy, and President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen in April this year on a stopover in the US on her way to visit some Latin American countries led to a deterioration in US-Chinese relations.
These were also strained by the shooting down of a Chinese “spy balloon” that violated US airspace last December. As a consequence, the US postponed a scheduled visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing in February.
In his keynote speech at the dialogue, the Australian Prime Minister reiterated the US positions, stressing that all countries must engage, maintain open dialogue and diplomacy, and follow multilateral rules. He was speaking about China, of course, though without naming it. He added that what he termed “diplomatic deep freezes” would only give rise to suspicions, saying that for this reason his country was stabilising its relations with China.
At the same time, Australian Minister of Defence Richard Marles defended the AUKUS military alliance between Australia, the UK, and the US and tried to depict it as providing balance in the Asia-Pacific region, along with ensuring deterrence and providing “pathways to peace.”
The highlight of the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue came in the remarks delivered by the top US and Chinese defence officials. The gap between their positions on the course of relations between the US and China does not look as if it will be narrowing anytime soon.
Talking implicitly about China, Austin said there could be no room for bullying or intimidation and that the US was stepping up planning and training with its partners from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean. Using an undiplomatic tone, he said that for “responsible leaders, the right time to talk is any time. The right time to talk is now.” He went on to say that “the more we talk, the more we can avoid the misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to crisis or conflict.”
The following day, Shangfu addressed a plenary session of the dialogue and alluded to the US when he said that “some countries intervene in the internal and regional affairs of other countries, frequently impose unilateral sanctions, threaten to use force, and launch colour revolutions and proxy wars everywhere.” He also criticised the term “rules-based international order.”
The official representatives of countries from the region at the dialogue also voiced their concerns with regard to the competition between the US and China. They emphasised that they do not want to take sides in this for the simple reason that their countries trade with China and some of them also have security agreements with the United States.
One of the most interesting topics discussed at the dialogue this year was the military balance between China and the US, with participants at this session agreeing that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is getting stronger by the day in the context of an ambitious programme of military modernisation in China. Before the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party last year, the Chinese president called for the complete modernisation of China’s military so that by 2050 the country would have world-class armed forces – in other words, a military that is no less powerful than the US one.
This sheds light on the remarks made by Austin earlier this year when he said that the efforts of the Pentagon are centred today on being one step ahead of the Chinese armed forces. Similarly, the Commander of the US Command for the Indo-Pacific Region said last April that the PLA was carrying out a military build-up that he characterised as the most comprehensive, largest, and fastest ever seen.
This year’s Shangri-La Security Dialogue did not give rise to an optimistic assessment of the way US-Chinese relations will develop in the months to come, despite Biden’s remarks in Hiroshima in Japan last month on the sidelines of the G7 Summit meeting to the effect that US relations with China would see a “thaw”.
The long-postponed visit of Blinken to Beijing has been rescheduled for 18 June. Maybe this was on Biden’s mind when he spoke about a “thaw” in relations with Beijing. If so, from the perspective of the Asian countries that aired their concerns about future US-Chinese relations at this year’s Shangri-La Security Dialogue, this is good news.
* The writer is former assistant foreign minister.
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