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’ve often mentioned, in this space, how the so-called Arab Spring articulated three strategic orientations in the Arab state. The first was towards the anarchy that addicted young people to the protest hubs. Without a plan or project, or even good intentions, they had nothing to offer but a bunch of slogans. The second aimed at a government project that was already on the drawing boards. It was Islamist in general, but its first version was written and executed by Iran. Around three decades old at the time, it functioned by fatwa, not by legislation. The third orientation was the path to reform. It emerged relatively late compared to the other two and it agreed with them on one thing: there could be no return to the era preceding the Arab Spring revolutions. For the reformists, it was time to move ahead.

The latter trend took root in the monarchies of the Gulf, Jordan and Morocco as well as in Egypt. Nine states had grown wary of revolutionary slogans, rejected theocratic rule, and wanted to enter the modern age. They approached this with considerable pragmatism, drawing on the Asian experience that took off after the war in Vietnam. They also shared the aim of building a nation state characterised by high standards of living and a strong and sovereign national identity. To this end, they extended the development processes to all corners of the country and brought on board young people as effective participants in the building of a new age. While they agreed on such goals, their progress varied in pace due to economic and other circumstances.

The road was never smooth. They had to deal with some adverse problems at home and major crises abroad, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. At present, the most formidable crisis is regional, namely the fifth Gaza war and its extensions, which threaten a regional storm. Reform always requires a large degree of regional stability. Look at what stability could do for East Asia.  Despite its history of revolutions, multi-ethnic guerrilla wars, the effects of colonial-drawn borders, and the Cold War, that region overcame its age-old contradictions through a comprehensive project for development, growth and progress. Nineteenth century Europe managed to emerge from the chaos of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars thanks to an arrangement to achieve stability. The Concert of Europe, as the arrangement was called, enabled stability to prevail for about a hundred years.

Neither Europe nor East Asia could progress and penetrate global markets in the absence of a large degree of stability to allow for technologically advanced and sustained prospects for prosperity and wealth. Unfortunately, such a situation has yet to come about in the Arab region and its vicinity. The Arab Spring generated a regional weakness that non-Arab neighbours, Iran, Turkey and Israel, took advantage of and aggravated. Iran occupied four Arab capitals through affiliated militias. Turkey intervened militarily in Syria and Iraq. Israel annexed the Golan, expanded settlements in the West Bank, and annexed Jerusalem.

The fifth Gaza war and the consequent tragedies for the Palestinian people was a consequence of Iranian intervention. During the crisis, Iran not only used Hamas, but it also encouraged Hizbullah to pressure Israel from the north and the Houthis to pressure the reformist countries through their military actions in the Red Sea, the crucial waterway between Saudi Arabia and Egypt leading to the Suez Canal. The crisis is thus regional and threatens to expand beyond its current belligerents, Israel and Hamas.

The ill-fated Gaza Strip is not the only territory afflicted by killing and displacement. Hostilities have extended to the Lebanese-Israeli border where skirmishes initially seemed to be containable but are gradually escalating into a full-scale clash. This has led to the displacement of the inhabitants of Lebanese and Israeli towns and villages near the border. In addition, Israel assassinated the Hamas leader Saleh Al-Arouri and two of his colleagues in a surgical strike in Hizbullah’s stronghold in southern Beirut. Meanwhile, Israeli settlers, supported by the Israeli army, continue their attacks against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank, while Israeli warplanes continue their bombing raids into Syria, targeting Iranian bases there. One strike killed a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer. In addition, the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces bombed two US military bases, one in Iraq and the other in Syria; and, in Iran, two bombs exploded during the commemorative ceremonies for the assassinated commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Suleimani, killing 103 and wounding 181.

Clearly, we have a situation that imperils the sought after regional stability that the Arab reform states need in order to press forward with their developmental plans and projects. The possibility that the escalating fighting could flare into a full-scale regional war also alerts them to their regional duties, especially in light of rising calls in Israel and the US for strikes against Iran. The Arab reform countries must develop an integrated strategy to deal with the complex crises in the region and to prevent them from spiralling out of control. Maybe it is time they take a leaf out of the book of 19th century Europe and form a Concert of Arabia, the core of which would be the nine countries that signed a joint statement at the Cairo Peace Conference. The aim would be to establish a new balance with the forces of war, conflict and instability to ensure the breathing space for the reformist countries’ plans for growth, progress and the advancement of their peoples. Solving the problems of this region should begin within it, not from outside. Now is the time to start.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 11 January, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly