W

hen invited in the summer of 2022 to participate in Egypt’s National Dialogue, I gladly accepted the invitation, eager to contribute to the gradual engineering of political openness in Egypt.

My choice to engage openly reflected my conviction that the only path to economic, social, and political progress for our country lies in gradual reform. This reform, characterised by major steps, involves collaborative efforts between state institutions, civil society forces, and the private sector within a framework that continually expands freedom of expression and party politics, improves human rights conditions, and maintains Egypt’s security, territorial integrity, and national sovereignty.

I was called to participate in the National Dialogue initiated by President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi after years of political closure and restrictions on freedom of expression. This period followed Egypt’s struggle against abhorrent terrorism when the armed forces and police played a crucial role in defending the nation and its citizens. It also followed economic and financial crises, external debt challenges, and the implementation of social safety net programmes like “Solidarity and Dignity” and “Decent Life” that aimed to support the poorest segments of the population.

On a personal note, the invitation to the National Dialogue came after years of my criticisms of political closure in Egypt. I consistently emphasised that reform led by the government could revitalise politics by lifting restrictions on civil society, improving human rights, and encouraging private sector activity, all the while ensuring the continued security and stability of Egypt.

Before the summer of 2022, I also alluded in several instances to the fact that the political closure in Egypt had, on the one hand, led to the distancing of political forces and national opposition movements from engaging with the public and genuine competition in electoral processes. On the other hand, it had resulted in the internal stagnation of these forces and movements and the decline of their human and organisational resources. Additionally, populist ideas and practices had become more prevalent among them.

Preceding the summer of 2022, political forces and national opposition movements had diligently endeavored to keep issues of rights, freedoms, and substantive discussions on major economic and social priorities present in public discourse. However, these forces and movements had also crafted a populist discourse regarding the Tiran and Sanafir Islands. These islands were returned to Saudi Arabia by the Egyptian government in accordance with bilateral and international agreements affirming Saudi sovereignty and acknowledged by previous Egyptian governments.

Due to Tiran and Sanafir, the opposition accused the government, unjustly, of surrendering national territory. At that time, while distant from Egypt and criticising the political closure and human rights situation, I documented that bilateral and international agreements confirmed Saudi sovereignty over the islands and dismissed any suspicion of the Egyptian government giving up Egyptian land.

Moreover, the same forces and movements persistently propagated a populist and unrealistic narrative regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This issue cannot be resolved to safeguard Egypt’s water security and legitimate rights to the Nile water except through diverse diplomatic tools. I emphasised, again and again, that the Egyptian president did not commit a strategic mistake by signing the Declaration of Principles on the GERD with Ethiopia. Instead, the signing created diplomatic opportunities to facilitate the mediation for a settlement that preserves our national rights.

Before the summer of 2022, I did not mix my criticism of the responsibility of state institutions for the political closure and calls for genuine reform with the propagation of populist ideas. I did not oscillate between “the camp of the Al-Ahly Club to the camp of the Zamalek Club,” as eloquently expressed by the esteemed writer Bilal Fadl in his recent commentary on my evaluation of the 2024 presidential elections.

Instead, I based my perspective on reformist convictions, seeking a partnership between state institutions, political forces, and civil society organisations in politics, and a partnership between public institutions and the private sector in economic and financial fields to achieve positive change.

My refusal to adhere to zero-sum equations and absolute judgements stemmed from a clear rejection of the false pretenses of remote heroism or the pretense of monopolising truth and correctness.

 

OPPORTUNITIES: In the summer of 2022, the National Dialogue provided a genuine space to overcome the political deadlock and revive the dialogue between the government and the opposition.

It presented an opportunity to discuss Egypt’s comprehensive priorities, address developmental challenges, economic and social issues, and promote genuine partnership between the state and the private sector. Participation in the National Dialogue aimed not at seeking cosmetic improvements from the government but at contributing to political openness, stimulating public discourse, and addressing the nation’s comprehensive priorities. It acknowledged the challenges of political openness after years of closure.

In 2023, I participated in the political axis of the National Dialogue. I attended diverse discussions on key issues such as the election laws, the legislative bodies’ functioning, human rights, freedoms, and economic and social crises. The National Dialogue discussions injected political vitality and partially lifted the security siege on the political parties. These dynamics have continued to push Egyptian politics towards greater openness.

It is important to recognise that the success of the National Dialogue should not be exaggerated or dismissed. It is not a magical solution to all political, economic, and social challenges, nor is it merely a cosmetic enhancement of the government’s image. Evaluating its impact requires understanding the nature of reformist paths, the difficulties of political openness, and the challenges of effective partnerships between state institutions, national opposition movements, civil society, and the private sector.

It is crucial to avoid oversimplified judgements and absolute statements, recognising the nuanced and gradual nature of positive changes in politics, economics, and society.

In the concluding months of 2023, the National Dialogue sessions halted as the regulatory procedures for the 2024 presidential elections, held in December 2023, commenced. The resurgence of politics, the vitality of public discourse, and the partial emergence of parties from the security siege and internal stagnation characterised the electoral landscape in 2023 compared to the 2018 presidential elections.

Representatives from three political parties, namely the Republican People’s Party, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, and the Wafd Party, alongside President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi, participated. A sizable block of the electorate participated in the ballot, almost two-thirds according to data from the National Elections Authority.

However, this does not necessarily imply that the recent presidential elections were marked by competitiveness. The candidacy of political party representatives indicated a process of the parties breaking free from the security siege of recent years. In recording a high popular participation rate, the National Elections Authority inversely obligated the president, his government, and all executive authorities to accept popular accountability and scrutiny as pillars of politics. Moreover, it necessitated attentiveness to people’s priorities and responsiveness to their livelihood needs.

Summoning citizens to the ballot boxes and acquiring legitimacy through public participation stand for a commitment that extends beyond being an incidental political event and instead is one that persists throughout the presidential term with citizens holding the right to scrutinise and freely express their opinions on the elected president’s performance and his government, culminating in a return to the ballot boxes in 2030.

In a televised interview on 12 December 2023 with distinguished host Qaswa Al-Khalali, I emphasised that the political capital provided by elections to the government, combined with the openness facilitated by the National Dialogue and the participation of party representatives, required further genuine reform steps.

These include contemplating legal amendments and executive measures to invigorate the political sphere and public life, leading to competitive parliamentary elections in 2025. They also involve decisive action on lingering issues of rights and freedoms and reactivating the Presidential Pardon Committee. A return to the National Dialogue is imperative to find solutions to our country’s challenging crises amid highly delicate regional and international circumstances.

These points, discussed in an extensive interview lasting over two hours, were largely ignored in the social media debate that followed. Many commentators chose to selectively focus on the mere mention of the voter turnout in the presidential elections, while dismissing the political results of its inverted equation – the accountability of the elected president by the voters.

The general discourse largely ignored my emphasis on the responsibility of the president and his government, the necessity of accepting popular accountability, and the imperative need for serious reform steps in the new term in office of President Abdel- Fattah Al-Sisi, except for an article by the distinguished writer Suleiman Gouda in Al-Masry Al-Youm on 16 December 2023.

I was not disheartened by the selective focus. Since before the Tiran and Sanafir issue, I have accustomed myself to it as a reality of all polities and have resolved to pursue objective discussion, adhering to reformist convictions and pragmatically seeking ways for positive change instead of wasting time in formulating zero-sum equations, absolute judgements, or producing populist rhetoric.

This commitment coexists with my profound respect for the eligibility and the freedom of expression of those who differ from me, whether their differences are expressed in harsh or gentle language.

 

The writer is director of the Middle East Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 18 January, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly