The Middle East, the world, and Davos

Hussein Haridy
Tuesday 23 Jan 2024

The main message coming out of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos this month was that the world is in deep crisis with no one sure of its overall direction, writes Hussein Haridy

 

More than 60 heads of state and government in addition to senior officials from the UN and other international and regional organisations travelled to Davos in the Swiss Alps from 15 to 19 January to attend the 54th edition of the World Economic Forum. More than 600 people from a world Who’s Who of business, finance, and high tech were also present.

 This year’s meeting convened under the theme of “Rebuilding Trust Amid Uncertainty,” one befitting a world in crisis and one that seems incapable of finding a much-needed international consensus on the solutions to the myriad of geopolitical challenges that face the planet.

There is growing polarisation among the great powers and a failure of the world’s international organisations, foremost among them the UN but also including economic and financial institutions, to help the developing countries weather a cascade of grave crises over the past four years. These have included the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as the war in Gaza, which, starting on 8 October, is still raging 107 days later and at the time of writing has claimed 25,000 Palestinian lives and more than 62,000 injured.

The leaders who attended the Davos meetings this year went in search of answers on whether there is light at the end of the tunnel. While in the Swiss Alps, thousands of miles from US shores, their minds must have been split between the beautiful Swiss scenery and the start of the presidential race between the Republicans and Democrats in the United States. The shadow of former US president Donald Trump must have been on everyone’s mind as he continues his efforts to win the Republican Party nomination.

The unanswered question at Davos, and across the world, was likely to have been what course international relations and international economic and trade relations will take if next November’s presidential elections in the US lead to a second term in office for former president Trump. The question gained more relevance with the results of the Iowa primaries in the US on 15 January, which showed more than 51 per cent of Republican voters in that state voting for Trump as the party’s nominee next November.

In its edition of 18 January, the Wall Street Journal published an article by Water Russell Meade, a well-known columnist, entitled “Team Biden Tries to Answer Davos Man’s Cry for Help.” The article referred to both US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan as members of “Team Biden,” saying that the aim behind entrusting the heavyweights of the Biden Administration’s foreign policy team with the mission of addressing the distinguished crowd at Davos was to assure them that the administration should be trusted and that US power and influence across the world are intact.

In the light of the wars, conflicts, and crises currently taking place across the globe, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, the Red Sea, and the Taiwan Straits, it is no surprise that reassuring those gathered in the Swiss Alps of US consistency in matters of international peace and security should remain a work in progress.

Take the situation in the Middle East, for example, and the way the US Administration has been managing this over the last three and a half months. Since the attacks carried out by the Palestinian group Hamas against Israel on 7 October, and the beginning of the war on Gaza that Israel unleashed in retaliation for these attacks, the Biden administration has been warning against escalation in the Middle East.

Fewer than four months later, the region has seen an expansion of the fighting to the Red Sea when the Houthi group in Yemen started targeting international shipping transitting the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Last week, I wrote about the international coalition led by the US that is currently fighting the Houthis. On 20 January, US attacks against Houthi targets cost the lives of more than 70 of the group’s fighters.

Among the Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, the position is that de-escalation in the region must start with an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Did “Team Biden” at the Davos meetings succeed in providing a good explanation for the inherent contradictions in the US objectives in the Middle East? It is difficult to say, for the contradictions are plain for all to see, as is the fallout of the continuation of the fighting in Gaza and fears that Southern Lebanon could turn into a second military front pitting the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah against the Israeli army.

Blinken said at Davos that Israel and its neighbours “are closer” than ever to agreements that will achieve both Palestinian statehood and regional peace. It goes without saying that what he meant by “regional peace” was the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This has been a priority for the US administration over the last three years. The war in Gaza has rendered it next to impossible in the absence of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and genuine efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state.

Meade wrote in the article referred to above that the “doubts one hears about the wisdom and competence of the Biden administration won’t be easily laid to rest.” I would add that both this “wisdom” and this “competence” have been greatly tested in the Middle East of late. Time will tell, and no one knows for sure how those who gathered at Davos this month will perceive the US and the state of the world under a new US administration in January 2025.

The main message coming out of the 54th World Economic Forum is that the world is in deep crisis and that no one is sure of the direction the international order is taking. It is not clear what the answers may be to the wars and conflicts of all sorts that have engulfed humanity over the last four years and that have been exacerbated by unbridled geopolitical polarisation.

Addressing the Davos Forum earlier this month, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that “geopolitical divides are preventing us from coming together around global solutions for global challenges.” It could be a Herculean job trying to bridge these divides. However, it is very much worth trying.


* The writer is former assistant foreign minister.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 25 January, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly

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