In 2003, the US, the EU, the Russian Federation, and the UN agreed on a road map to settle the Palestinian Question in three phases.

At that time, the Quartet, now just history, was entrusted with its implementation. The Quartet included the US, the EU, the Russian Federation, and the UN.

Israel was led by its then prime minister Ariel Sharon, who accepted the road map after strong US pressure but only on the condition of rejecting the Arab Peace Plan that had been adopted one year earlier by an Arab Summit meeting in Beirut.

Nothing came of that ambitious and detailed Plan.

More than three decades later, US President Joe Biden released a second road map to peace on 31 May.

This time it is a joint US-Israeli initiative that aims at ending the “crisis” in Gaza. This is the term that is being used to describe the savage war that Israel has unleashed on the Gaza Strip and has been pursuing for the last 241 days. During that period, it has almost obliterated three-quarters of Gaza and taken the lives of more than 36,000 Palestinian civilians with more than 80,000 injured.

Acccording to Palestinian statistics, there are 10,000 children in Gaza who have lost limbs in the war, to the extent that one Western observer commenting on the devastating consequences of the war on the Palestinians in Gaza said that once the war is over Gaza “will be a nation of amputees”.

The Biden road map is divided into three phases, and it is not as detailed or ambitious as the one put forward in 2003. One difference between the two is the fact that it is solely a US-Israeli endeavour.

In outlining the main points of his road map, Biden said that the ultimate aim is the ending of the war in Gaza in stages. The first stage would last six weeks and aim at a complete ceasefire coupled with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all the populated areas in Gaza. In the meantime, a certain number of Israeli hostages would be freed in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

During this six weeks, 600 trucks carrying humanitarian assistance would be allowed to enter Gaza. Israel and Hamas would also start negotiating a ceasefire.

The second phase would see the release of all the hostages and an agreement on a permanent ceasefire. In the third stage. Hamas would hand over the remains of any hostages who had died in custody. The reconstruction of Gaza would begin.

Biden did not provide details on the sources of financing the Herculean task of reconstruction, nor on the countries and international and regional economic and financial institutions that would agree to share in the burden of reconstructing Gaza.

He merely talked about the role of the US as well as “partners” in the region. It goes without saying that a permanent ceasefire is a pre-condition for the Gaza reconstruction to begin.

Biden stressed the US commitment to the security of Israel in his remarks. He also believes that there is a strong chance of the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, in addition to integrating Israel more into the Middle East.

However, it is doubtful under the present circumstances that we can expect the Israelis to accept a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The reactions from the Israeli government’s extreme right ministers to Biden’s remarks surprised no one.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote on X (Twitter) that accepting the proposals would be a “victory for terrorism and a security danger to the State of Israel.” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich demanded the continuation of the fighting until the destruction of Hamas and the return of all the hostages.

The two men have threatened to leave the government if it accepts to go along with the Biden road map.

Netanyahu’s office issued a statement that reiterated the Israeli government’s conditions for agreeing to a permanent ceasefire, namely the destruction of Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all the hostages, and steps taken to ensure that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.

On 1 June, the US, Egypt, and Qatar issued a statement saying that they believed that the road map would lead to a permanent ceasefire and end the “crisis,” meaning the war in Gaza. However, it will not be surprising if this war does not end in the foreseeable future.

It seems that the fate of the second roadmap of the Middle East will not be different from the first one in 2003.

 

The writer is former assistant foreign minister.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 June, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly