Several members of the G7 group of nations have held major elections or will do so soon, Canada and the US included. However, this article will focus on the European G7 states and other European states that are holding pivotal elections.
Voters in Europe are changing the political landscape by voting differently and audaciously. Reacting to a state of general fatigue, they are calling for change, not necessarily because they prefer the new candidates and parties, but instead because the incumbents have not served them well. Hence, they are voting anti-incumbent rather than for the new candidates.
These major elections will steer Europe and the rest of the world in a different direction. Their consequences will reshape the political scene in Europe and effect change across the world.
A new wave emerged in recent years with far-right victories in elections in many European countries. In the Dutch elections last year, the anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders won by a landslide, while Italy’s elections in June boosted Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right party. France’s far-right National Rally (RN) exhibited a strong hold on election numbers, though it did not do well in the second round of the country’s parliamentary elections.
There were elections to the European Parliament in June in which the European People’s Party led by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen won most seats. The far-right Alternative for Germany Party (AFD) beat German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left party.
All this shows massive dissent for two reasons. The Covid-19 pandemic led to inflation across Europe, with spikes hitting record highs. This then led to an upswing in interest rates and the feeling that everything was becoming costlier. The rates are cooling down somewhat now, but that is not giving a respite to sufferers. Prices will not return to what they were before the pandemic.
The second reason is that hard-line anti-immigration views are becoming more prevalent. This xenophobic “foreigners out” approach is leading the far-right movement across Europe, with many voters linking violence to immigration. In addition, many voters fear that immigrants are competing with them for access to housing, jobs, and other benefits.
However, the UK general elections in July were a different ballgame. They brought in the Labour Party and deposed the Conservatives. Demanding change, voters blamed the Conservative Party for the failures that came after Brexit and the crumbling state of public services. As a result, the Conservatives, with former UK prime minister Rishi Sunak at the helm, suffered a major defeat in the elections, coming in third. Today, the Labour Party, with Sir Keir Starmer at the top, is in 10 Downing Street.
According to the US channel NBC, the UK “polls show that rather than any love for the Labour Party, many voters were motivated by a desire to punish the Conservatives for 14 years of scandals and legislative missteps. Many former Conservative voters switched to the right-wing populist party Reform UK led by Trump ally Nigel Farage, a smaller electoral force that could nonetheless become a more serious challenger in future ballots.”
The British voted for the centre and not for the far-right, as has been occurring in other countries in Europe. However, Farage’s Reform Party still gained many seats at the expense of the Conservatives. Farage is well known for his persistent call for Brexit and his anti-immigration inclinations.
In France, the results of the legislative elections were more puzzling. They left no party with the majority needed to form a government, and political deadlock has ensued. The far-right RN led by Marine Le Pen gained much ground, but it fell from a clear first place to third place in round two of the elections. Nevertheless, Le Pen struck up an alliance with another far-right group, that led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in the EU Parliament.
Again, voters in France were driven by anger with the mainstream parties rather than belief in Le Pen. They wanted to see the defeat of French President Emmanuel Macron rather than Le Pen’s leadership. The UK newspaper the Guardian cited one French voter’s words. “There’s just so much to be fed up about,” he said, listing “Macron’s changes to the retirement age and unemployment benefit, as well as the rising price of diesel and electricity, a lack of doctors, shuttered shops... and insecurity. Of course, immigration’s also a big problem.”
Nevertheless, on 9 June the New Popular Front, a left-wing alliance formed after Macron called snap parliamentary elections, won. It promised to “scrap the pension and immigration reforms passed by the current government, to set up a rescue agency for undocumented migrants, and to facilitate visa applications. It also wants to put caps on basic goods to combat the cost of living crisis and raise the minimum wage,” the Guardian said.
The political shift that has gripped Europe will ultimately not only affect Europe alone but also the world at large. From immigration policies to how Muslims are perceived, from supporting Ukraine to supporting Gaza, from fighting Russian President Vladimir Putin to accepting China, and from Europe’s tendency to support former US president Donald Trump to its unlikely inclination to support Biden, the future of Europe has yet to unfold.
The writer is a former professor of communication who is based in Vancouver, Canada.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 18 July, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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