At the time of going to press, the world is still waiting with bated breath to see what the extent of the expected retaliation by Iran, Hizbullah, and Hamas will be. There is no doubt such retaliation will take place.

In what looks more and more like a game of table tennis, and depending on the amount of damage the Israelis already bunkering in bomb shelters and rushing to buy basic goods will sustain, attention may then shift to the Israeli side, whose turn it will be to strike. All hell just might break loose.

Indeed that nightmare scenario would actually be Netanyahu’s heyday, diverting attention away from his genocidal war in Gaza, in which 40,000 people were killed, and pushing the United States into a direct confrontation with Iran. For Netanyahu and extremist members of his government, the only adequate revenge for the 7 October attack on Israel, led by Hamas fighters, a multi-front war in which the US wars with Iran and its close allies: Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and other groups it provides support in Iraq and Syria.

Israeli ministers with documented records of membership in terrorist organisations, even in the books of the US State Department, such as Itamar ben Gvir and Bezleal Somtritch, have been openly pushing for such a broad war to wipe out Southern Lebanon and bomb Yemen and Iraq. Smotritch went a step further in ugly statements he made on Monday, expressing his regret that the world is not letting Israel starve over two million Palestinians to death in order to force Hamas to give up Israeli prisoners taken by the group on 7 October, claiming that such a move would be “justified and moral,” as he told the Israeli press: “Nobody will let us cause two million civilians to die of hunger, even though it might be justified and moral, until our hostages are returned.”

However, despite the “iron-clad” support outgoing US President Joe Biden pledged to provide to Israel, so far there is no evidence that Washington will back such a nightmare scenario, especially three months ahead of a highly contested American presidential election, now between Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican president Donald Trump.

Indeed, the Pentagon has rushed scores of warships packed with fighter jets and advanced defence systems to protect Israel, but there is clearly no appetite in Washington to reverse the policy backed by both Democrats and Republicans to reduce US military involvement in the region after the catastrophic fallout of the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001 and 2003, respectively.  

The relative delay in Iran’s retaliation, reportedly ordered by its supreme spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei — a similar pledge was made by Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nasrallah — has opened the door to mediation effort by several regional parties striving to spare the peoples of the region the misery and suffering that would result should Netanyahu manage to push his doomsday scenario, pressuring the United States into a direct war against Iran on Israel’s behalf. However, nothing is guaranteed, with the Israeli premier’s reckless behaviour and his determination to play with fire.   

After meeting Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan on Monday, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi warned that “the Middle East is at a critical juncture,” requiring the highest levels of self-restraint and the greatest efforts by voices of reason and wisdom. Al-Sisi reiterated to Foreign Minister Fidan that the way to defuse escalating tensions in the Middle East lies in combined international efforts to enforce a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and create an opportunity for political and diplomatic solutions.

He pointed out that Egypt has repeatedly warned of the dangers of further escalation, which threatens regional and international peace and security. Al-Sisi also stressed that regional developments must not overshadow efforts to deliver aid to the Palestinian people in Gaza, who are suffering from inhumane living and health conditions.

As a key mediator in ongoing efforts to reach a ceasefire, together with Qatar and the United States, Egypt has strongly condemned Israel’s ongoing escalatory policies, particularly following the brazen assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran.

This criminal act in particular raised many eyebrows as it came at a time when all parties were expressing cautious optimism that a ceasefire deal in Gaza could be close. As Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohamed Abdel-Rahman Al Thani, a key mediator, noted: “Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue, leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”  

If sanity prevails, the United States, as the only party in a position to influence Israel due to the unlimited military and diplomatic support it provides, should be able to restrain Netanyahu. Although this recognition came late and after much denial, American officials, starting with “proudly Zionist” Biden, are aware that to prevent an all-out war from destroying the entire region, and to calm all the volatile fronts in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, the starting point is the Gaza ceasefire.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 8 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly