For decades, the Middle East has been a cauldron of instability, marked by conflicts that have displaced millions and scarred its landscape. As the region teeters on the brink of yet another chapter of strife, the spectre of fragmentation and turmoil once again looms large, threatening to undo the fragile progress achieved in recent years.
The influence of global powers on the Middle East has also been profound and far-reaching and extends beyond the historical impact of the Sykes-Picot Agreement made between France and Britain to divide the region between them in the early 20th century.
This artificial division, made with little regard for ethnic, sectarian, and tribal affiliations, laid the foundation for much of the conflict seen in the region today. By grouping and dividing communities artificially, it sowed the seeds for long-term instability, entrenching divisions that have endured for over a century.
Today, the geopolitical dynamics of the region are shaped by a far more complex array of actors. European powers like France and Britain have largely faded in terms of their direct influence, giving way to emerging forces like China and Russia. The US continues to be a significant player in the region, but its role has also evolved, especially after two decades of involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. At the same time, regional players like Iran, Israel, and various Arab states have also consolidated their positions, adding further complexity to the political landscape.
The Middle East’s importance extends beyond its borders, driven by its vast oil reserves, strategic location at the crossroads of global trade routes, and symbolic importance in global religious and cultural history. The contest for control and influence in this region reflects a broader global struggle for power that continues to shape international relations. Among the most concerning developments in this regard today are Iran’s expansionist policies. By leveraging a network of proxies across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, Iran has extended its regional influence.
This strategy is not solely about regional dominance but also serves as a direct challenge to the interests of rival powers, including Saudi Arabia, the US, and Israel. Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts has far-reaching implications. By funding and arming groups such as Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq and Syria, Tehran has fostered a network of influence that allows it to project power far beyond its borders.
These proxies provide Iran with a means of challenging its rivals without direct confrontation, maintaining deniability while causing instability. The effects of such proxy warfare have been devastating for civilians in countries like Syria and Yemen, where the toll of war has been severe in both human and economic terms.
However, Iran is not the only power looking to assert its influence in the region. The rise of the Islamic State (IS) group, and then its eventual defeat, prompted a temporary alignment of interests among regional and global players. Yet, the post-IS landscape remains volatile.
Warming ties among the Arab nations have come at a significant cost to the peace process with the Palestinians. The prospects for a two-state solution, long considered the most viable option for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, now seem more distant than ever, as Palestinian leaders feel increasingly isolated in their pursuit of statehood.
The Arab world itself is deeply fragmented, with internal divisions and conflicting national interests hindering a unified response to the region’s multifaceted challenges. This fragmentation is evident in countries once considered relatively stable. Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, which once enjoyed some semblance of stability, are now embroiled in severe internal crises.
The stark contrast between their current turmoil and the relative peace they experienced a few decades ago underscores a profound and troubling decline. The Palestinian issue stands as a glaring example of the increasing complexity of regional conflicts. The past year alone has seen over 36,000 deaths and 100,000 injuries resulting from ongoing violence in Palestine. This devastation has not only led to widespread displacement but has also triggered severe humanitarian crises, complicating an already dire situation and underscoring the urgent need for a resolution.
Taking an historical perspective reveals that the Middle East’s current turmoil mirrors past geopolitical shifts. In the early 20th century, the collapse of the Tripartite Entente, which had included Russia, France, and Britain, paved the way for Franco-British dominance over the region after World War I.
Today, Russia is reasserting its influence in the region through strategic alliances with Iran, Syria, and China. Russia’s involvement in Syria in particular reflects an effort to regain influence lost after the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Concurrently, China is making significant strides in the economic and political arenas, enhancing its cultural ties and positioning itself as a counterbalance to US influence, particularly following strained relations with the former US Trump administration.
Despite these shifting alliances, the interests of the major powers frequently clash with the aspirations of the Middle Eastern peoples themselves. The Kurdish cause, for instance, is often instrumentalised to serve broader geopolitical objectives rather than addressing the genuine needs and desires of the Kurdish people. Nations devastated by conflict are frequently overlooked, their cities reduced to rubble while their populations suffer in silence.
The ongoing clash between the hopes of the Middle Eastern populations and the ambitions of powerful states perpetuates the region’s instability. The potential for the Middle East to become a flashpoint for global conflict remains a significant concern. The region’s complexities and deeply entrenched issues suggest that a new global conflict could further ravage the area and its peoples.
To prevent such a dire scenario from taking place, it is crucial to revitalise the role of international organisations. These bodies must take a proactive stance in protecting the rights and aspirations of the region’s diverse populations, ensuring that fragile states receive the support they need to pursue freedom and stability. Empowering nationalities and ethnic groups to exercise their right to self-determination within their historical contexts is also essential.
Equally important is respecting the sovereignty of nations to prevent further disintegration and conflict. Without concerted and deliberate efforts to address these foundational issues, the Middle East situation is likely to deteriorate further, perpetuating a cycle of instability and suffering.
The international community’s role is pivotal in fostering an environment where the aspirations of the Middle Eastern peoples can be realised. This involves not only diplomatic engagement but also tangible support for governance structures, economic development, and human rights initiatives.
The international community must also address the root causes of conflict and instability in the region, including historical grievances, economic disparities, and political disenfranchisement. The Middle East’s enduring instability is a consequence of both historical grievances and contemporary geopolitical manoeuvrings. As powerful states pursue their own interests, the region’s peoples often bear the brunt of these strategies.
Addressing such deep-seated issues requires a unified effort from the international community to support genuine self-determination, restore stability, and foster peace. Only through comprehensive and sustained measures can there be hope for a future where the aspirations of the Middle Eastern peoples are not overshadowed by the ambitions of the major powers.
The writer is a journalist from Iraqi Kurdistan.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 22 August, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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