As the Russia-Ukraine war escalates significantly, particularly following Ukraine’s large-scale drone attack in the Lipetsk region of Russia, the African Sahel region has emerged as another front in this conflict.

This development follows Mali and Niger’s announcements of their severing diplomatic relations with Ukraine, based on reports implicating Ukraine in the recent attack in Mali. In this context, it is worth considering the possibility of the Sahel region becoming a battleground between Russia and Ukraine with substantial Western support, especially after the withdrawal of France and Washington from the area.

The timing of the crisis highlights several key points, among them the renewed escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and the severing of diplomatic ties by some of the Sahel countries with Ukraine.

The tensions in the Sahel region coincide with an intensification of military operations between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have managed to advance towards the Russian border and have gained control over parts of the western Kursk region in Russia.

They also follow announcements by both the ruling Military Council in Niger and the Transitional Government in Mali regarding the severance of diplomatic relations with Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ambassador in Dakar released a video that led to the Senegalese authorities summoning him for clarification. Burkina Faso has also expressed its solidarity with the Malian Military Council.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba embarked on an African tour, visiting several countries including Zambia, Malawi, and Mauritius between 4 and 8 August. The tour was part of Kyiv’s efforts to strengthen relations with African nations and gain their support in international forums.

Meanwhile, the US Department of Defence announced on 5 August that Washington had completed the withdrawal of its military forces from Niger, marking the end of its counterterrorism mission in Niamey amidst ongoing instability in the region. France is currently also experiencing a diminishing role and declining status across the continent, particularly as it faces increasing rejection from many African nations.

While the decision by Mali and Niger to sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine might seem insignificant to some, given the limited nature of relations between Ukraine and Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, particularly in terms of economic ties, the move raises questions about the true motivations behind it, as there are many indicators of escalating African tensions towards Kyiv and sends a strong message from Niger and Mali about their ongoing support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.

The developments also reflect the continued rejection of the European powers in the Sahel region.

Among the reactions to the escalating tensions between the Sahel countries and Ukraine are those of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Russia, Ukraine, and France.

ECOWAS condemned any foreign interference in the affairs of Mali, expressing strong disapproval and denouncing any external intervention that threatens peace and security in West Africa.

Moscow accused the Ukrainian authorities of seeking to open new fronts in the war against Russia, particularly by supporting terrorist organisations within the African continent. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected Mali’s accusations of involvement in a terrorist attack on the Malian army on 27 July and condemned Mali’s decision to sever diplomatic ties.

A Russian website has reported that a French military leader has suggested that Paris should assist Ukraine in countering the Russian influence in Africa.

Meanwhile, the tensions could signify a significant shift regarding the future of Russia’s relations in Africa. These tensions highlight the strategic importance of Africa for both parties and the increasing relevance of Russia’s role in the continent.

The developments could be crucial for Moscow in strengthening its ties across Africa, particularly as Russia has recognised the strategic importance of the continent. By broadening the scope of the existing Russia-Africa Summit meetings, Moscow could foster economic cooperation, deepen ties, and expand trade with African nations.

Africa is also a significant international market, and Moscow seeks to capitalise on this by increasing its military exports and expanding the sale of Russian arms to African countries. It aims to strengthen its relations with African nations to gain support from the continent’s voting bloc, which consists of 54 countries, in international forums.

Through strengthened relations and further bilateral summits, Russia could advocate for Africa’s pursuit of a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, using its voting bloc as leverage.

At the regional and international levels, the tensions could further destabilise the Sahel region, particularly Mali. Niger and Mali are likely to emphasise that the Western countries are fuelling conflicts in the Sahel to create instability and prevent regional development.

The tensions could lead to closer cooperation between Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, reinforcing the trilateral Sahel Confederation. The Sahel nations may also succeed in portraying Ukraine as a supporter of terrorism, tarnishing its image across the continent.

Such developments could give rise to various future scenarios. One of the most prominent is the continued decline of Western influence in West Africa, which could take place in tandem with further terrorist threats in the region. Given the confusion and instability in some West African countries, terrorist activities may continue to thrive.

The African countries may also increasingly side with Russia and China, further distancing themselves from the US and European nations. The region could see a rise in political unrest, possibly accompanied by open military conflict between the global powers, in the light of recent security developments.

The current situation in the Sahel could also compel neighbouring African nations to intervene in support of the Sahel countries against Western influence, potentially leading to heightened internal tensions on the continent.

Such developments are likely to raise concerns about the growing competition and power struggle between Russia and Ukraine in Africa, particularly in the wake of the Western withdrawal from the Sahel and Sahara regions. As Russia seeks to solidify its position on the continent, the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict appears to be escalating.

The writer is a political researcher in African affairs.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 17 October, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly