It has been just over a year since the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation. The consequent turmoil, Israel’s massacres, the waves of displacement and re-displacement back and forth in Gaza, other waves of displacement from southern Lebanon to the capital, as well as displacements inside Israel from the south and the north towards the centre, are known and visible to all. But we have yet to understand all the details of what happened and why it came at such a cost, even though it is well to remember that some things may have to be left to historians.

As I write this, the fighting appears to have subsided on the Gaza front. Hamas’ operations have been reduced to rocket salvos to prove their continued presence. The Lebanese front followed the opposite trajectory. The pager bombings initiated a chain of attacks that resulted in numerous assassinations of Hizbullah’s political and military leaders, culminating with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, then Israel began to bombard Lebanon in the south, in Beirut, and as far north as Tripoli. It has become clear that the Palestinian, Lebanese, Iranian, and Houthi fronts are under intense pressure.

Naeem Qassem, who has been serving as acting head of Hizbullah as the organisation faces the challenge of electing a new leader while fire by Israeli pre-emptive strikes, has called on the Lebanese government to demand a ceasefire. This would have been impossible some weeks earlier. His position suggests that not only are we on the threshold of the “day after” widely discussed since the beginning of the war, but also on the threshold of the day after that. The situation is reminiscent of the Naksa of June 1967.

Further testimony to this is to be found in Iran’s attempts to work its way out of a corner, such as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent visit to Beirut followed by visits to Riyadh and other Arab capitals “to discuss regional issues and courses of action to stop Israeli crimes in Gaza and Lebanon”.

The situation in Tehran is equally fraught. Last week the US media speculated on the magnitude of the counterstrike Israel might carry out in response to the recent Iranian strike in retaliation for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hassan Nasrallah, who was very close to the Iranian leadership. One question asked was whether the Israelis would stop at “harsh and painful”, as they have been threatening, or include key Iranian nuclear facilities and structures, which Israel has wanted to do for over two decades.

Washington appears to be trying to convince Israel to keep the strike “symbolic”, as it did with the Israeli counterstrike in April. However, what with the US presidential elections around the corner, no one in Washington knows what Israel is planning in the space between delivering a slap to the face of the Iranian state and eliminating the nuclear threat before it is too late. Conjectures favour the latter course because, before things became so complicated for it on various fronts, Iran had suggested it would accelerate its uranium enrichment operations enough to reach the two-week breakout point.

This brings us to the question of what we are going to do. By “we” I mean the Arab governments that are the adults in the room, capable of shouldering responsibility for the region’s security and stability. The recently announced Saudi “Global Alliance to Implement a Two-State Solution” is a noble initiative, but the road to the goal requires considerable innovation and pragmatism in planning and staging.

This is the time to call the Arab Six-Party Committee into action. Its first step should be to answer crucial questions such as what we, the Arabs, should do for the Palestinian cause, bearing in mind that the other face of this question is the Israeli question. How do we achieve a ceasefire that allows for breathing room to establish an effective and responsible Palestinian entity, as well as an Arab entity committed to ensuring that critical issues are not managed by militias that seize the power to make decisions on war and peace from the state?  

Wars, as loathsome and horrific as they are, present an opportunity to close the chapters on the pain and suffering that have been inflicted on all and produce a better reality. After World War II, even after nuclear weapons were used, the world entered a new and unprecedented era of international organisation, giving birth to the UN and its various economic and cultural bodies. Europeans then succeeded in establishing the European Union. The Asians underwent a similar process after the wars in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, the latter of which saw civil massacres that reportedly claimed over a million victims in the time of Pol Pot. Today, they can rightfully boast of an Asian paradise capable of competing with the West.

The October 1973 War paved the way for peace. What will the fifth Gaza war do?

* A version of this article appears in print in the 17 October, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly