It is no secret to observers of US-Israeli relations that a series of uncrossable red lines underpins this alliance.

Chief among these is America’s unwavering commitment to ensuring Israel’s security, protecting it from threats by providing extensive political, military, and economic support.

Acknowledging the red lines shaping the strategic partnership between the two countries might lead one to argue that external interference in their bilateral dynamics is impossible, so long as the relationship progresses undisturbed. However, this position is increasingly problematic when US-Israeli ties negatively impact Arab national security, particularly on the Palestinian issue, which remains foundational to regional stability.

There is the developing US role in the peace process between Israel and Palestine, for example. Since the signing of the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty in March 1979, the US has been a critical player in this, facilitating the Oslo Accords in 1993, the 1994 Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty, and the subsequent normalisation agreements between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.

However, Washington’s role has shifted from active engagement to a largely passive stance, oscillating between being a mere observer, mediator, or, at times, outright supporter of Israel. This has been manifested in two ways: firstly, in the US failure to implement the two-state solution that it ostensibly endorses; and secondly, in its inability to halt Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza, now more than a year old, which has since expanded into Lebanon.

Instead, US military support for Israel has surged while its diplomatic pressure has faltered, leaving critical questions about the future of peace unanswered.

With the Biden administration having failed to advance the Palestinian cause, attention now turns to the incoming Republican administration, set to assume power on 20 January 2025, following President Donald Trump’s electoral victory on 5 November. With Republican control also in place in both chambers of Congress, this administration will wield considerable power, unlike its predecessor.

As we consider the anticipated policies of the next Trump administration, it is clear that it will not start from scratch. Trump’s previous tenure witnessed unprecedented decisions regarding Palestine, including recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, relocating the US embassy there, and acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, all decisions that have severely complicated the prospect of a fair solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

On 28 January 2020, Trump also introduced his “Deal of the Century,” a carefully crafted proposal designed to eliminate any realistic chance of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. This proposal granted Israel extensive security and political gains while denying the Palestinians their fundamental rights, effectively nullifying their claims to Jerusalem, dismissing the refugee issue, and ceding over 30 per cent of the Jordan Valley to Israel, in addition to areas in the West Bank and East Jerusalem where Israeli settlements continue to expand.

The Arab League rejected the proposal in an emergency meeting on 1 February 2020.

Reflecting on Trump’s previous term today, it is clear that his policies were detrimental to the Palestinian cause. However, from the perspective of the present there remains a faint hope for a shift in US policy today, given the possibility of a “general review of the prior administration” when the new Trump administration comes into office.

 Let us hope that the new administration does not attempt to reintroduce the grossly inequitable “Deal of the Century” introduced in January 2020 but instead has a fresh vision that can assure security for both Israel and Palestine. This would require Trump to recognise the crucial contributions made by Arab-American voters to his landslide victory in November and to reciprocate by adopting a more balanced approach to Israel and Palestine.

Trump has pledged to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon when he comes into office. However, he should not view this as his ultimate achievement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently indicated that Israel is nearing the end of these conflicts anyway, which suggests that any cessation of hostilities could occur independently of US efforts.

Simply ending these wars without addressing the subsequent conditions or the future of the peace process would also not constitute a meaningful accomplishment. It is critical that Trump refrains from reiterating any ambition to expand Israel’s borders and instead pressures Israel to withdraw from Gaza.

In the light of these adverse developments, there is an urgent need for a robust “Arab Deal of the Century” to counter the US version. This initiative must present a comprehensive, actionable vision for resolving the Palestinian issue, complete with realistic, enforceable mechanisms.

It is imperative that we pursue such an initiative on the relevant regional and international platforms without waiting for the Gaza conflict to end or for Trump to take office. Let us act decisively now and see what results can be achieved.

The writer is deputy director of the Egyptian Centre for Strategic Studies (ECSS).

* A version of this article appears in print in the 14 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly