A new geopolitical paradigm is emerging in a volatile region. The historic transitions underway in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan portend very significant political shifts in the Horn of Africa region with major political, economic, security, and humanitarian repercussions.
The Horn of Africa has recently become a focal point for international attention, particularly as tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia escalate to alarming levels. This escalation stems from Ethiopia’s expanding influence in the region that threatens Somalia’s sovereignty. Ethiopia has been serving its geopolitical interests by deploying its forces and penetrating the interior of Somalia in order to reach the coast.
Such developments have substantial implications for Egyptian interests, as the region represents an area of strategic depth for the country impacting its national security. Egypt is tackling them by building a rapprochement with Somalia and its neighbours in order to counter the Ethiopian expansion in the Horn of Africa region. It has sought to play an increasingly assertive role in order to restore balance to the security and political situation.
Egypt has promoted its presence in the Horn of Africa with a view to achieving four objectives.
The first is to strengthen Egyptian national security in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandeb Straits, aiming to bring about secure maritime navigation in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. This has recently been threatened by Houthi attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea and affecting navigation in the Suez Canal.
Suez Canal revenues have decreased by about 46 per cent as a result of the lack of security in the Red Sea region.
The second is to restore the strategic balance in the region in order to serve both regional and Egyptian interests, consolidating Egypt’s regional and international role as an effective force in maintaining international peace and security. Linked to this is the third reason, which aims at Egypt more broadly asserting its influence and fostering collaborative relationships with other nations concerned with regional stability
The last reason is to contain the Ethiopian threat in the region, particularly in the light of the existing differences between Egypt and Ethiopia because of the building of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
These features of the Egyptian strategy towards the Horn of Africa region have been in place since 2014, and during that time Egypt has aimed to restore its historical influence in the region and to support all efforts aimed at enhancing stability in the Horn of Africa in a way that enhances regional and continental peace and security and underlines the region’s strategic importance and its pivotal connection to Egyptian interests.
The recent challenges facing the Horn of Africa region have prompted Egypt to develop a strategic vision for addressing the complex issues in the region. Egypt has adopted a multifaceted approach that addresses the crises affecting seven states, namely Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Sudan.
This approach has involved the signing of defence cooperation agreements, the acting as a mediator in regional disputes, and investing in the energy sector. On the geopolitical level, the region is seen as crucial for Egyptian interests, notably because it is strategically located along key maritime routes, making it a focal point for global powers.
Egypt is keenly aware of the strategic interests of other countries, particularly in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The increasing influence of countries including Turkey and the US in the Horn of Africa region has prompted Egypt to reassess its foreign policy in the area by strengthening its alliances and partnerships to counterbalance the influence of external powers. This has also influenced Egypt’s approach to other regional issues, including security cooperation and as a regional mediator.
In the wake of the conflict that erupted in Sudan in April last year, Egypt’s proactive diplomacy has highlighted its role as a stabilising force in the region. To prevent further escalation of the conflict, Egypt has maintained a neutral stance and positioned itself as an acceptable mediator to all the parties involved.
Since the onset of the crisis, Egypt has engaged positively with all the stakeholders, including relevant regional and international actors, in order to achieve a unified vision for the kind of resolution of the crisis that was proposed at the International Conference of Sudanese Civil Political Forces convened in Cairo in July 2024.
Egypt is also working to mobilise neighbouring countries with interests in Sudan’s stability to contribute to resolving the crisis.
In response to the escalating dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia, which has sought to strengthen its ties with Egypt, Egypt signed a military cooperation agreement with the latter country. This agreement, reached in August 2024, includes the deployment of Egyptian soldiers to Mogadishu. Some of these will be integrated into the African Union Stabilisation and Support Mission in Somalia, which is set to replace the African Union Transition Mission in January 2025, while the others will be deployed bilaterally.
The agreement between Egypt and Somalia was quickly put into action, with Egypt also dispatching military aircraft to Mogadishu loaded with military equipment and stationing it along the Somali-Ethiopian border in August this year. Between 27 and 29 August, Egypt sent 1,000 soldiers to Mogadishu, signalling a clear message of deterrence.
Egypt has also intensified its political rapprochement with Somalia, seen in the visit of the Somali president to Cairo in August 2024 in response to a memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and the Somaliland region and highlighting the cooperation between the two countries to counter Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions.
Egypt and Eritrea are also exploring potential military cooperation and intelligence sharing to solidify ties. This stance aligns with Egypt’s historical perspective on conflicts in neighbouring countries like Sudan and Somalia, where it has championed stability and state integrity. Ultimately, this philosophy not only reinforces Egypt’s leadership role in the region but also promotes a vision of self-determination to foster sustainable peace processes.
On the counter-terrorism front, Egypt is keen to undermine the activities of terrorist organisations in the Horn of Africa region, particularly the Somali Al-Shabaab Movement, which is viewed as one of the most lethal branches of the Al-Qaeda network.
The Global Terrorism Index for 2023 classifies Al-Shabaab as one of the world’s most dangerous terrorist groups. Egyptian-Somali coordination has focused on training Somali officers in cooperation with the Egyptian Armed Forces and addressing Somalia’s need for security support amid increasing attacks by Al-Shabaab.
This cooperation will enhance the capabilities of the Somali security forces, allowing Somalia to benefit from Egypt’s comprehensive approach to combating terrorism and addressing the root causes of the phenomenon.
On the economic level, collaboration is a key aspect of Egypt’s vision for the Horn of Africa region. Egypt aims to strengthen its economic ties with the Horn of Africa nations through various initiatives, including trade agreements and infrastructure projects.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a significant opportunity for Egypt to enhance its economic relations with neighbouring countries, for example. By promoting trade and investment, Egypt seeks to create a mutually beneficial economic environment that will foster growth and development in the region.
This is reflected in the volume of trade exchanges between Egypt and Somalia, with Egyptian exports to Somalia increasing to $57 million in January to June 2024 and imports from Somalia rising from $300,000 to $2 million, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS).
Additionally, Egypt has expressed an interest in participating in infrastructure projects in the country that will improve connectivity and access to markets, as Egypt strengthens its cooperation in the region’s electricity and renewable energy sectors.
In sum, the significant challenges now facing the Horn of Africa region have led Egypt to develop a comprehensive vision aimed at addressing a range of complex issues. This vision extends beyond the GERD to include efforts to restore the region’s strategic balance.
The writer is an international relations analyst.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 21 November, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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