Despite enduring a significant amount of turmoil, war, and foreign meddling, the Middle East has shown remarkable resilience.

It has been a victim of Western schemes from the era of colonialism to the present day. Colonial powers and their successors have imposed destructive policies and conspiracies that have fractured the region through artificial borders and exploitative projects. These schemes exploited the region’s weak political security infrastructures and the dominance of competition among nationalist regimes post-independence.

From the Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916 and the Balfour Declaration in 1917, fabricated regional security arrangements like the Baghdad Pact, and more recent frameworks such as the “New Middle East,” a geopolitical concept proposed by the United States to reshape the region in its favour, and the “Deal of the Century,” a peace plan for Israel and Palestine proposed by the first Trump administration, the region has long been subject to Western manipulation. This includes the funding and use of terrorism, as well as the creation and support of militias across the Middle East. The 2003 invasion of Iraq followed years of a devastating war with Iran.

The West’s role in pivotal events such as the 1948 Nakba, the Palestinian exodus that occurred during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, the establishment of Israel, the 1956 Suez Crisis, the 1967 War that undermined Egypt’s revival project, and its continued support for Israel in its wars against Palestinians and Lebanon, illustrates a consistent pattern. Western policies have never been just or fair to the region, which remains prey to their dominance and the imposition of detrimental frameworks designed to benefit Israel and the West at the expense of local Middle Eastern nations.

The time has come for the region’s countries to take control of their destiny. They must establish a regional system of security, peace, and development rooted in the region’s historical and geographical realities. The failure to do so will allow Western conspiracies, spearheaded by Israel, to persist in shaping the Middle East’s future.

A study published by the magazine Asbab in August highlights the interconnected nature of security in the Middle East, referencing UK academic Barry Buzan’s “security complex” theory.

According to this framework, no state’s security is independent of its neighbours, as regional interactions influence national and global security dynamics. The “security complex” theory posits that regional powers with significant economic, military, political, and ideological capabilities shape the security and policy agendas of their surroundings and foster loyalty among neighbouring states.

Key regional powers in the Middle East such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Jordan, the UAE, Algeria, and Morocco play pivotal roles in shaping its political, security, and economic dynamics. Together, they are positioned to create a sustainable framework for security, cooperation, and development that serves the collective interests of the region’s people.

EGYPT: A PILLAR OF REGIONAL STABILITY: Egypt has historically been, and remains, a central regional power. Its strategic location connects the Mediterranean and Red Seas via the Suez Canal, bridging West Asia and North Africa. With a population exceeding 105 million, Egypt possesses a dynamic and youthful workforce, making it a critical market and a strategic player on the global stage.

Egypt’s foreign policy prioritises strong ties with the United States and the West, reflected in its designation as a major non-NATO ally. Its military relies on Western arms and has received $1.3 billion in annual US military aid for over four decades. This partnership also ensures significant economic support from international institutions.

However, Egypt has diversified its international relations, strengthening ties with Russia, particularly in the energy and wheat sectors, and deepening its strategic partnership with China, its largest trading partner. Egypt’s recent inclusion in the BRICS group of countries and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation underscores its commitment to multipolarity.

Despite these global alliances, Egypt maintains close ties with the Gulf states, its primary regional allies. Shared priorities include countering Iranian and Turkish influence and maintaining regional stability against the rise of Political Islam.

Egypt also faces pressing challenges, such as securing the flow of the Nile River, safeguarding the Suez Canal, and stabilising its borders amid crises in Gaza, Libya, and Sudan. Despite historical tensions, cooperation with Turkey offers mutual economic and geopolitical benefits, particularly in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Egypt’s cautious rapprochement with Iran signals a pragmatic approach, balancing regional security interests with its strategic alliances with the US and Israel.

SAUDI ARABIA: A KEY REGIONAL PLAYER: Saudi Arabia seeks to maintain its status as a regional powerhouse by strengthening its ties with global powers, particularly the United States, to counter Iranian influence. Recent rapprochements with Iran, including the exchange of ambassadors, suggest a potential shift towards a cooperative regional vision.

Saudi Arabia also holds a central position in global energy markets and has played a significant role in recent efforts to stabilise the region. Its evolving relationships with regional powers like Egypt, Turkey, and Iran could pave the way for a more unified Middle Eastern framework.

Saudi Arabia holds a pivotal position in the global energy market. It regained much of its geopolitical significance following the Ukraine war and growing coordination with Russia, a country the West seeks to isolate and curb its oil exports. Consequently, Saudi Arabia remains a focal point for major international powers. Leveraging this global influence and substantial financial resources, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman believes that the Kingdom’s leadership in Arab regional affairs should not be questioned.

The cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s foreign-policy priorities is enhancing immunity against diverse Iranian threats despite recent positive developments in bilateral relations. For this reason, Saudi Arabia continues to view its partnership with the United States as indispensable, persistently pursuing a strategic security agreement with Washington.

Economically, Saudi Arabia’s priorities, especially those articulated in its Vision 2030, aim to reduce reliance on oil revenues by diversifying the economy to include renewable energy, tourism, logistics, and artificial intelligence. This ambitious vision requires positioning Saudi Arabia as the premier business hub in the Middle East while expanding its international partnerships, as reflected in its BRICS membership and outreach to investment-rich regions such as Central Asia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Africa via the Saudi-African Summit in 2023.

It would be premature to depict the normalisation of Saudi-Iranian relations as the end of their rivalry. Rather than signalling a shift in Riyadh’s perception of the “Iranian threat,” the agreement represents a strategic adjustment, focusing on de-escalation and managing competition through non-military means. This aligns with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s efforts to temper regional tensions and prioritise investment and economic development.

TURKEY: REGIONAL ASPIRATIONS: Turkey seeks to reclaim its historical influence in the Middle East, with notable transformations in its relationships with Arab states in recent years. Ankara aims to establish strategic partnerships with the Gulf countries and reinforce its role in regional matters.

While tensions, especially with Egypt due to Turkey’s support for Political Islam and interference in domestic affairs, have posed challenges, these issues have largely been mitigated today. This rapprochement could pave the way for enhanced cooperation on shared security and collective frameworks.

Turkey’s foreign policy prioritises solidifying its status as a rising global middle power, expanding its influence in the Balkans, Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia, and Africa. Despite maintaining NATO membership, Turkey seeks greater autonomy from Western influence without adopting an aggressive stance. Consequently, Ankara continues a pragmatic working relationship with Russia due to geopolitical and economic imperatives, even as it fully supports Ukraine.

IRAN: STRATEGIC CALCULATIONS: Amid heightened Western scrutiny over its nuclear programme and tensions with Israel, Iran is leveraging its rich historical legacy, economic resources, and geostrategic position to navigate formidable challenges.

Despite facing geopolitical dilemmas, such as vast borders and the absence of a strategic ally among the major powers, Iran compensates for this by developing forward defence strategies, including proxy networks and self-sufficiency in asymmetrical military capabilities like missile and drone technologies.

Internally, Tehran prioritises preserving the cohesion of its ethnically and sectarian-diverse populace, which plays a critical role in shaping its foreign policy, particularly towards neighbours such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Furthermore, Iran has intensified its “Look East” policy, strengthening economic and military ties with Russia and China while seeking limited engagement with India, Africa, and Latin America. Membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS underlines its eastward pivot.

Iran has recently embraced a more conciliatory approach to reassure its Gulf neighbours, reducing the American presence in the region and countering the potential evolution of a Gulf-Israeli alliance. Restoring ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and soon Bahrain reflects this strategic recalibration. However, confrontations with Israel remain a persistent source of tension, compounded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s regional activities, which have fostered animosity and heightened fears among neighbouring states.

THE PATH FORWARD: The Middle East must move beyond externally imposed agendas to establish a homegrown security, peace, and development framework. Such a system would harness the region’s historical and cultural contributions to humanity while addressing contemporary challenges.

However, key questions remain. How can major regional players led by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran collaborate with North African powers like Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, as well as the historical hubs of Baghdad, Damascus, and Amman, to resist divisive external agendas? Can the region develop a shared vision for its future, prioritising collective security and economic development over foreign-imposed frameworks?

The path forward for the Middle East lies in fostering an inclusive regional dialogue, empowering local institutions, and, most importantly, resisting efforts to entrench external dominance. By doing so, the Middle East can reclaim its sovereignty and chart a course towards lasting stability and prosperity, empowering its people and ensuring a brighter future.

The Middle East is at a crossroads, facing challenges and opportunities to reshape its security and cooperation mechanisms. The evolving Saudi-Iranian and Egyptian-Turkish dynamics signal a growing awareness among the regional powers of the need for indigenous frameworks that prioritise sovereignty, stability, and mutual respect. The experience of Europe’s Helsinki Accords in 1975 serves as a potential model for a Middle Eastern security and cooperation architecture.

Ultimately, the region’s future should be determined by its principal actors – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran – rather than external powers like the United States or Israel. The region’s history and its people’s aspirations underscore the urgency of crafting a unified framework that rejects external interference and addresses common threats. Only through collective action can the Middle East transcend decades of fragmentation and conflict, ensuring security, stability, and prosperity for its nations and peoples.

The writer is a former assistant foreign minister.

* A version of this article appears in print in the 5 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly