The events unfolding in Syria, a country that has always been at the heart of critical Arab interactions, have repercussions that extend beyond Syria’s borders, impacting not just its immediate Arab neighbours but also the entire Arab world, the broader Middle East region, and even the international balance of power.
Any reasonable observer is likely to be astounded by the political and media fanfare surrounding these events. While part of this reaction is understandable due to the collapse of an authoritarian regime that has lasted more than half a century and one that has been beset by various grave errors and violations, it does not justify reducing it to mere celebration.
Any failure to critically assess the developments in Syria reflects either ignorance or bias, possibly even alignment with Syria’s adversaries and the enemies of the Arab nation. This article will make three critical observations about Syria itself, while subsequent commentary will address the broader Arab, regional, and international implications of the events in the country.
The first observation relates to the need for a comprehensive explanation of the recent events. While the internal dynamics of the fallen regime, such as its authoritarian nature and oppressive practices, played a crucial role in its fall, these domestic factors are insufficient to explain the regime’s collapse.
Similar regimes remain in power because they are shielded from external factors working to undermine them. There are obvious external reasons for the fall of the regime led by former Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, with the country’s opposition factions enjoying regional backing. Official statements from abroad accompanied the progress of these factions during their battle with regime forces and predicted their arrival in Damascus. Such external backing included training, the arming of the factions, the participation of non-Arab actors, and Western tolerance of events that resembled an external invasion.
The second observation is intended to question the exaggerated rhetoric about a new free, harmonious, stable, and prosperous Syria. While such aspirations express hope for the future, they overlook the extremist backgrounds of Syria’s new rulers, as corroborated by international organisations like the United Nations and even the Western Coalition led by the US that has placed bounties on their heads.
The swift Western shift to rebrand the new rulers of Damascus as moderate and democratic represents a moral failure, evident in the continued silence on the atrocities being carried out by Israel in Gaza. The Western media is now attempting to paint these new rulers as champions of tolerance and democracy, a portrayal which is starkly at odds with their history and ideology.
Their ideological rigidity will likely hinder their ability to achieve stability in Syria. Genuine stability requires resolving internal disputes among opposing factions and addressing Syria’s complex demographic landscape, including sectarian and ethnic divisions. The Kurdish issue remains a major challenge, with ongoing conflicts between Kurds and the former opposition factions sowing seeds of future instability.
The third and final observation centres on existential threats to Syria’s statehood. These stem first from the ideological rigidity of the country’s new rulers, which could prevent national reconciliation, potentially leading to partition. In a state marked by deep religious, sectarian, and ethnic diversity, such partitioning would exacerbate historical grievances and serve external agendas aimed at fragmenting the Arab states to benefit specific regional and international powers, primarily Israel. Syria’s strategic importance makes it a centrepiece of plans to do so.
Their second source lies in regional ambitions, with explicit claims to Syrian territory emerging during the campaign to oust Al-Assad. Israel’s actions, including its annexation of Syrian territory, dismantling of Syrian military power, and unilateral violations of disengagement agreements, exemplify this danger. The international community’s silence on these violations emboldens such actions.
These observations are intended as an entry point to a broader discussion of the Arab, regional, and global consequences of the developments in Syria.
* The writer is professor of political science at Cairo University.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 19 December, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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