The more devastating war becomes, the more intensely peace is pursued. The largest ever project for global peace was established after WWII, giving a new impetus to international law and providing rules for securing international peace and security, reviving human heritage, and mitigating the violent impact of economic crisis. It established specialised agencies for those purposes and other common human interests. The results were not perfect. Many regional wars have erupted since then, including in Europe recently. But no third world war has occurred so far, and nuclear weapons have remained sheathed since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Meanwhile humankind has succeeded, as never before, in combatting epidemics and boosting global trade.
The Vietnam War was not confined to Vietnam; it engulfed the whole of Southeast Asia, involving a superpower. However, it served to stimulate a renaissance that Japan had begun. Starting in the 1970s, China and Southeast Asian countries established a regional peace, enabling whole nations to be lifted out of poverty and propelled towards development, prosperity and modernity. From the clutches of war, the largest regional peace and security initiatives were born: the European Union in Europe; and in Asia, ASEAN.
The fifth Gaza war was not confined to the return of direct Israeli occupation to the Strip; it spread to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, and trade routes in the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, the Suez Canal, and the Gulf. It threatened the political and security interests of all Arab countries as well as Turkey. Clearly, an Arab peace initiative is now needed, like the one adopted at the 2002 Arab Summit in Beirut. Also needed, however, is an Arab regional peace and security project that goes beyond the land for peace formula to address the Palestinian cause. This necessity has become increasingly urgent due to recent global developments, not least Donald Trump’s return as US president despite all the indictments and judicial rulings against him.
So far, signs point to Trump 2.0 being different from the first edition, though not entirely. In his first term, Trump proposed a path to a Middle East settlement based on “normalization” while imposing a fait accompli in Jerusalem and failing to offer a solution to the Palestinian cause beyond economic facilities. This policy generated an environment conducive to the growth of violent and fanatical religious extremist movements in both Palestine and Israel. Trump 2.0 helped bring about the current ceasefire, but he has only suggested a return to the Abraham Accords as a solution, which means a return to what sparked the war to begin with.
Judging by other indications of policy directions that will affect us in the Middle East, Trump 2.0 will prioritise energy. As he made clear in his inaugural address, his administration will work to fill US strategic oil reserves and increase US worldwide oil and gas exports. He therefore vowed to boost oil and gas production in the US, to which end he signed executive orders to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, increase oil and gas extraction in Alaska, halt wind farm leases, and cancel Biden’s 2023 memorandum barring oil drilling in about 16 million acres in the Arctic. In short, his goal is to reduce inflation in the US through a dramatic reduction in oil prices.
Given the current backdrop, the Arab regional peace project would look beyond a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict towards the creation of a region-wide economic market founded on the promotion of development, progress, and prosperity and ensuring the national interests of Arab countries. The first step on this path is to create an Arab coalition among countries that already have a solid nation state with a distinct identity, are internally cohesive and free from civil war, and have an existing interest in securing regional peace. The second step is to reshape the Palestinian political elite into one undivided by ideology and united in its dedication to the establishment of an independent Palestinian nation state in which the legitimate authority holds a monopoly on legitimate weapons. The third is to integrate Israel into the region as a state that participates in building regional prosperity. The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum already exists to serve as a platform for the promotion of mutual prosperity. Another is possible in the northern Red Sea, enlarging on the Saudi developmental experience in the northwestern Arabian Peninsula and its Egyptian counterpart in Sinai.
The Arab coalition has the potential to build and advance the common interests of all Arab and regional partners. Its horizons are endless.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 30 January, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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