US President Donald Trump is embarking on a notable departure from the Democratic Party legacy that characterised his predecessor’s time in office and stirring up a global debate on the future of American politics over the upcoming four years.
At the heart of this policy is the Middle East, where the attacks of 7 October 2023 reshaped the geopolitical landscape, influences, and alliances. Trump’s recent statements about transferring the Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Egypt and Jordan are a recipe for disaster but his true intentions might be very different.
The statements represent a clear infringement upon the sovereignty of Egypt and Jordan, while overlooking the historical rights of the Palestinian people and their plight in the face of the barbaric Israeli war machine. They negate decades of diplomatic efforts and internationally recognised norms and resolutions. They go against political realism and could help to escalate the same tensions in the region that Trump promised to de-escalate when running for the presidency.
Given the widely known Egyptian objections to any such move and the intense reactions from the region and the world in the wake of Trump’s statements, it seems that his true intentions may be focused on creating the conditions that he thinks will help him reach a settlement that safeguards Israel’s future, fosters a continuation of the so-called Abraham Accords, and even enables him to win a coveted Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.
Trump knew in advance that Egypt and Jordan would categorically refuse his stance and adhere to their long-lasting position on the issue of transferring the Palestinians, being fully aware that this was Israel’s goal during its ferocious bombardment of the Gaza Strip and starvation of the population that have turned Gaza into a waste land.
Trump was fully aware that a proposition like this would endanger his vision to forge an accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel as well as his own promises to end the conflict in the Middle East. Ideally, the whole Republican administration should have had an idea about the global outcry statements like this would cause, the legal impediments they face, the costs associated with such a move, and which countries would accept getting entangled in such a political and ethical fiasco.
During his previous presidency, Trump made several statements hinting at the forcible transfer of the Palestinians. In one instance, he suggested that Palestinian refugees should be absorbed by neighbouring Arab states, a notion that was met with fierce resistance from Palestinian leaders and the international community.
His administration’s decision to cut funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) was seen as another attempt to pressure the Palestinians into accepting alternative solutions.
The reasons behind Trump’s recent proposal are probably multifaceted. Firstly, it aims to continue the strategy of diminishing Iran’s influence in the region and ending Hamas’ control over Gaza in a manner consistent with an overall objective of uprooting a culture that Israel deems conducive to terrorism. One can say that Gaza, dominated by Hamas since 2007, serves as a “proof of concept” for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump who want to end Hamas’ rule, eradicate its culture, and utilise a desired normalisation treaty with Saudi Arabia to inject tremendous amounts of funds into Gaza to create new communities, job opportunities, and conditions that would help to change the Palestinian mindset towards Israel.
Ultimately, Trump wants Egypt to help in convincing Hamas to hand over Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and oversee a roadmap designed to end its control while empowering the PA and ensuring its restructuring. The new Gaza in Trump’s mind would be a cosmopolitan place where cultures mix to produce a new generation that is tired of fighting Israel.
The repeated rhetoric on forcibly transferring the Palestinians is an Israeli dream that cannot materialise, given Egypt’s adamant position on this issue, but it is being used to push for achieving other goals. With the continued threats by the Israeli far-right to topple Netanyahu’s government, Trump is providing a much-needed lifeline to Netanyahu to enable him to continue implementing the stages of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas while calming Israeli hardliners until the conditions for a normalisation treaty with Saudi Arabia are ripe.
Netanyahu needs his coalition government to withstand the current turbulence of the ceasefire and to provide him with the safety net required to finish the three stages of the agreement. He needs the time Trump is providing as well to figure out the details of a treaty with Saudi Arabia that would serve as the bedrock for a culture change in the Middle East.
Israel is not after another “cold” peace like the one it has with Egypt. Instead, it is in dire need of a “warm” one that will foster the culture change required to accept Israel as a friend, an investor, a frequent visitor, and replace the reputation it has as a foe across the region.
With Iran slowly exiting the picture, Saudi Arabia is preparing the ground for a new era in which it can shine as the leader of the region, especially after the fall of the regime led by former president Bashar Al-Assad in Syria. Despite Netanyahu’s recent remarks about Saudi Arabia setting up a Palestinian state on its territory, both Trump and Netanyahu are aware that the time for accepting a Palestinian state is coming, and it will be only a matter of time before committing to this vision.
Trump is keen on continuing on the path of the normalisation agreements with Israel, and he is eyeing huge Saudi investments in the US and Gaza. He needs to keep Netanyahu afloat until he works things out with Riyadh. Until this happens, his statements on Gaza provide Saudi Arabia with the leadership platform it needs to voice its stance, exercise its leadership, and stay the course of establishing a Palestinian state as a condition for a normalisation accord with Israel.
The hurdles on the road to the above include Hamas’ grip on Gaza and its alliance with a weakened Iran to counter the US-Israeli strategy. These hurdles could result in a continuation of the current impasse, which will need careful attention to all the factors involved and not further inflammatory statements that could pour more fuel on an already raging fire.
* The writer is a corporate and strategic communications professional.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 13 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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