The Middle East finds itself at a crossroads, confronting a fundamental question: how can the region bring an end to protracted wars and conflicts and establish a comprehensive security framework that alleviates tensions, prevents future conflicts, and lays the groundwork for lasting peace?
Some governments and civil society groups place their faith in global powers such as the United States, China, Russia, or the European Union to intervene and stabilise the region. However, the reality is far from encouraging. While the Middle East’s geostrategic location, energy resources, and wealth render it indispensable to global politics, the United States and China seem primarily concerned with safeguarding their immediate interests, while Russia and the European Union, grappling with diminishing regional influence, appear focused on salvaging their remaining stakes.
Collectively, these powers lack a cohesive vision or policy framework capable of mitigating the structural challenges that perpetuate the Middle East’s cycles of conflict.
This points to an undeniable reality: the responsibility for ending the war of attrition and forging a path towards stability now rests squarely on the shoulders of the region’s major actors. If these capitals – Tel Aviv, Tehran, and Ankara, alongside Cairo, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi – are determined to reject the chaotic status quo, they must take proactive steps to reshape the Middle East’s future.
The intricate interplay of gains and losses, opportunities and risks, may compel these actors to explore the potential of collective security arrangements. Such frameworks could serve as a foundation to reduce tensions, mitigate conflicts, and open avenues for sustainable peace.
The willingness of these regional powers to embrace collaboration will determine whether the Middle East can transcend its cycles of violence and emerge as a more stable, cooperative entity in an increasingly dynamic and unpredictable global landscape.
Israel, despite emerging as a strategic winner in the current Middle East conflict, finds itself in a precarious position. The necessity of sustaining military strikes to prevent the “axis of resistance” from resuming rocket and drone attacks perpetuates instability. At the same time, reoccupying Gaza, forcing displacement, expanding settlements in the West Bank, maintaining a presence in Lebanese territory, and conducting continued aggressions towards Syria fail to create lasting security.
Moreover, these actions hinder normalisation efforts with its regional neighbours.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government, while persistently advancing divisive rhetoric and punitive strategies against Iran and its allies, is likely aware that other regional powers, such as Turkey, are not invested in overthrowing the Islamic Republic or dismantling Iran as a state.
For Israel to break free from this cycle, it must abandon policies rooted in coercion, unilateral dominance, and the denial of Palestinian self-determination. Instead, it must pursue regional consensus aimed at peaceful settlements, collective security arrangements, and the delineation of mutually respected boundaries and spheres of influence.
Such a shift would not only foster long-term security but also open pathways to genuine normalisation with its neighbours. Without this strategic recalibration, Israel risks remaining entrenched in an unending conflict that undermines both regional peace and its own long-term interests.
In the aftermath of 7 October 2023, Iran has emerged as the most significant strategic loser, facing a decline that appears increasingly irreversible. Traditional strategies to regain influence, such as reasserting the power of its allies in Gaza and Lebanon, rallying remnants of the Al-Assad regime in Syria, or deploying Iraqi and Yemeni militias in cross-border operations against Israel, have proven inadequate, even with the direct involvement of the Revolutionary Guards.
The leadership of the Islamic Republic, as reflected in public statements by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, is keenly aware of the multiple actors capitalising on its waning influence. The once-potent “axis of resistance” narrative has crumbled under the relentless pressures of conflict, destruction, and Israel’s overwhelming military superiority, leaving Tehran increasingly vulnerable and isolated in the region.
For Iran to secure its future, a fundamental shift in its approach is imperative. Without building regional consensus, Tehran risks further exacerbating the devastating consequences of the war of attrition, deepening its isolation, and accelerating the decline of its influence in a region increasingly aligned against it.
For Egypt, the stakes are particularly high, and with its borders adjoining crisis zones on all fronts the war of attrition has introduced additional national security threats that require immediate attention. These include the fallout from Israeli incursions into Gaza, an intensifying regional arms race, and the socioeconomic strain of integrating refugees. The economic impact is also significant, with declining revenues from the Suez Canal adding to the burden.
Since 7 October 2023, Egypt has undertaken significant efforts to mitigate regional instability, forging collaborations with key partners such as Ankara, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi while maintaining a cautious diplomatic approach towards Tehran and demonstrating considerable strategic restraint with Tel Aviv. Despite Egypt’s pivotal role as a mediator in efforts to end the Gaza war, plan post-conflict scenarios, and refocus global attention on the Palestinian cause, Israel’s persistent intransigence has strained bilateral ties.
The visions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while closely aligned with Egypt’s emphasis on stability and collective security, reflect distinct national priorities shaped by their unique geopolitical and strategic objectives.
Saudi Arabia’s focus remains on advancing its Vision 2030 modernisation agenda while safeguarding its resources from unresolved regional tensions in the Levant. Riyadh seeks to maintain calm with Iran, stabilise the Arab Mashreq, and pursue strategic dialogues with the United States on peaceful nuclear programmes and regional normalisation efforts. Yet, Washington’s insistence on conditioning such agreements on normalisation with Israel without addressing Palestinian rights or the two-state solution undermines Saudi ambitions.
Without a robust collective security arrangement, Riyadh’s ability to shield itself from regional fallout while focusing on its domestic and strategic priorities will remain under constant threat. The Kingdom’s vision, therefore, hinges on forging a broader framework of regional cooperation to address these interconnected challenges and achieve lasting peace.
The UAE, having ended its military involvement in Yemen, has redirected its focus towards influencing civil conflicts in Sudan and Libya while maintaining close ties with Israel. However, Abu Dhabi is also increasingly concerned about the fallout from Syria’s regime collapse and competition among Turkey, Iran, and Israel more broadly. To mitigate these risks, the UAE is exploring collaborations with Saudi Arabia and Egypt to stabilise Syria and the Levant at large, especially as it relates to post-war governance in Gaza.
All regional actors share a crucial interest in establishing a collective security framework encompassing key arenas such as Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Without it, the persistent cycle of conflict will continue to endanger both regional and global interests.
Despite shared interests, significant obstacles hinder efforts to establish collective security in the Middle East. Chief among these is the continued reliance on military tools by some regional actors and their interference in the internal affairs of other states. Such practices erode trust and exacerbate divisions, making it difficult to build a shared vision for peace. Compounding this challenge is the erosion of foundational principles, such as “Land for Peace,” and the persistent prioritisation of force over dialogue.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia stand out as exceptions, having refrained from direct or proxy military involvement in the current conflicts. However, Israel, Iran, Turkey, and the UAE continue to wield military capabilities in ways that perpetuate cycles of violence, delaying meaningful collective action. The only viable solution lies in replacing militarism with a framework of collective security based on dialogue, pacification, and peaceful settlements.
Accordingly, Egypt and Saudi Arabia must take the lead in launching a regional security grouping modelled after the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). This initiative would invite participation from all Middle Eastern states and regional organisations, such as the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), under the following commitments:
Non-interference: Respect for the sovereignty of states and adherence to non-interference in internal affairs;
Peaceful conflict resolution: Adoption of dialogue, negotiation, and consensus-building to resolve tensions and conflicts;
End to militarism: A commitment to cease direct and proxy military interventions, halt support for armed militias, and refrain from employing force as a policy tool;
Support for self-determination: Efforts to end occupation, dismantle settlements, and lift blockades to enable peoples seeking self-determination to achieve it within realistic frameworks;
Restoration of nation-states: Initiatives to rebuild and stabilise fragmented or collapsed states across the Middle East and to end the presence of militarised non-state actors and terrorist militias.
By prioritising collective security, this framework would offer a pathway to resolving entrenched conflicts and promoting sustainable development across the region.
The writer is a political scientist and former MP. He is currently director of the Middle East Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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