The Middle East is witnessing the emergence of a new formula governed by a mixture of conflict and diplomacy as the current Iran-US talks and the mayhem of the Gaza war paint a different picture of the region and redefine its alliances and security paradigms.
The widely backed Egyptian vision for the future of Gaza and the “maximum pressure” policy exerted by US President Donald Trump on Iran are two critical elements contributing to the shaping of the new formula that will affect the region over the coming decades.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by then US president Barack Obama and the other countries of the P5 + 1 group of the five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with Tehran marked a historic effort to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief.
However, Trump’s 2018 withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA and his subsequent maximum pressure campaign against Tehran destabilised the agreement as a whole, prompting Iran to escalate its uranium enrichment. Former US president Joe Biden’s attempts to revive the deal through indirect talks after 2021 were met with scepticism and were complicated by Iran’s demands for guaranteed economic benefits and regional influence in exchange for a deal.
In the light of recent developments, it seems that Iran is now caving in to the pressure being put on it and submitting to a changing scene after the blows dealt to its proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Yemen. While Hamas is still trying to hold on to its stronghold in Gaza, it appears that it has lost a significant amount of popularity along with its military ability, its leaders, and its capability to run the Strip it once governed without any real competitors. It currently aims a merger with the Palestinian Authority (PA).
While Tehran is adhering to an unchangingly defiant rhetoric, Trump’s maximum pressure policy is yielding results and has driven it to the negotiating table with fewer cards to play. Faced with the option of a sweeping carpet-bomb campaign targeting its nuclear and military capabilities, Iran fears the worst and is contemplating the possibility of the fall of the regime as a result of widely expected military moves on the part of the US and growing economic hardships at home that could ignite a wide outcry.
A breakthrough in the negotiations between Iran and the US, a key factor that would shape the region’s future, is the likely outcome, as a further stalemate could result in a devastating escalation that could engulf the region in a war that nobody wants, especially the Trump administration. Trump himself preached global peace during his election campaign. Faced with fewer options and continued pressure, Iran is expected to cut its losses and reassess the implications of losing its proxies in the region, especially in the light of Trump’s position.
The Egyptian plan for Gaza’s future is the other pillar that will ensure a de-escalation of the situation and pave the way for a more stable Middle East. With visible Arab, Muslim, and European support, the Egyptian plan represents the most rational option on the table for reconstructing Gaza and restarting a process through which peace can be obtained and preserved.
The US and Israeli drive to eliminate Hamas altogether is not only unrealistic but also inapplicable. As a result of Trump’s maximum pressure approach, Washington and Tel Aviv are trying to persuade the mediators between Israel and Hamas to pressure the latter into disarming and leaving Gaza, a target that would give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the ability to declare the victory he needs in order to evade the growing domestic opposition to his rule and mounting scandals.
While there are understandable US concerns about the current Egyptian plan, recent remarks made by the administration and its openness to discussion with the Egyptian side on some of its elements signify an appreciation of the rationale behind the plan and its worth. The most pressing challenge facing Egyptian officials involved in the talks will be convincing their US counterparts that uprooting Hamas from Gaza is not only impossible but will also not be the answer to US and Israeli concerns.
Uprooting Hamas will not eradicate the “culture of fighting” in Gaza and will not end the cycle of violence in the region. The only answer is to take the path of peace and prosperity, one that respects Palestinian rights and will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state in accordance with UN resolutions. Hamas should disband itself as an organisation and cede authority in Gaza to a more capable and powerful PA.
The fruitful end of the Iran-US negotiations and the implementation of the Egyptian plan for Gaza would usher in a new era for the Middle East. This would be one that would witness the resumption of the Abraham Accords, currently on hold, a commitment by a more moderate Israeli government to engage in a meaningful peace process, and a decline in the impact of the armed groups that have infringed upon the rights of sovereign states.
Creating an environment that fosters peace and preserves the rights of the Palestinian people is the answer to the predicament facing the Middle East and would end the current impasse. It would give co-existence a chance and open the way to the cooperation that many parties are looking forward to in the region.
The writer is a strategic communications professional.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 10 April, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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