Two annual summits are about to convene. It would be an overstatement to say they are eagerly awaited – except, perhaps, by the immediate stakeholders or the diehards who still cling to the hope that such high-level gatherings will yield meaningful outcomes to help overcome humanity’s challenges and strengthen opportunities for growth and development. The first is COP30, which will open in Brazil on 10 October. This is the 30th in the series of annual climate summits that began in Berlin in 1995. The second is the G20 Summit, which will be hosted by South Africa on 22 November. This too has met annually since the 2008 global financial crisis.
These summits have recently suffered the same ailments afflicting all attempts at multilateral international action. The fact that they convene at all has become noteworthy, even if they achieve nothing significant or their results differ from their declared goals. In recent times even the most highly praised summits received no higher an accolade than “better than expected, but less than hoped for.” Judging by the statements issued after their preparatory meetings, I doubt the upcoming summits will fare much better, despite the best efforts of their organisers and hosts.
The world is plagued by four afflictions, made intractable not by lack of resources but by lack of a collective reform-oriented political will:
First, the problems of rising debt in advanced economies, the growing cost of debt service in developing countries, accelerating technological disruptions have become deeply entangled with intensifying economic wars and escalating geopolitical conflicts. Some analysts greeted the recent meeting between the presidents of China and the US with relief, hailing the agreements on such matters as tariffs, critical minerals and fentanyl. However, the markets were not so hasty, reflecting the belief that these results were mere palliatives and that smoothing relations between the world’s two largest economies requires more extensive measures and time to test the credibility of positive change. The differences in the interests and future outlooks of these two countries run far deeper than the issues addressed in that recent meeting held on the fringe of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in South Korea.
Secondly, international concessional financing has declined sharply due to Washington’s cancellation of its development aid programmes, with no reversal in sight, and the drastic cuts in European development aid amid the budget constraints that European powers face after prioritising defence spending. To make matters worse, international finance institutions are finding it increasingly difficult to raise their capital. This problem is primarily the result of political stances that fail to acknowledge how different today’s world is from the post-World War II context that gave rise to those institutions and how much larger a role the Global South now plays in the world economy.
Thirdly, developing nations are shackled by rising cost of capital– unjustifiable by actual, measured credit or investment risks, as has been confirmed by the Global Emerging Market Risk Database (GEMs). Compiled by a group of international financial institutions, the database details defaults over the past 30 years. Recent GEMs reports have shown how financing for projects that offer solid risk-return prospects failed to materialise due to preconceived biases and exaggerated and unrealistic risk perceptions.
Fourthly, two levels of denial continue to surround climate change: the denial of reality and the denial of responsibility; resulting in shirked commitments. According to the report on nationally determined contributions (NDCs) published ahead of COP30, emissions from 64 countries are set to fall by 17 per cent from their 2019 levels. However, the countries responsible for two thirds of global emissions have yet to submit their reports. Moreover, the expectation now is the global emissions reduction by 2035 will only amount to six per cent relative to the 2019 baseline. The 2015 Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature rise under 1.5°C has slipped out of reach.
It seems humankind has no choice but to adapt to a warmer world. Microsoft founder Bill Gates, now sponsor of the world’s largest charity foundation, stirred controversy by stating that climate change, though serious, does not pose an existential threat. He also argued that, in view of the decline in development aid from advanced countries, resources should not be diverted away from health programmes, such as malaria treatment, or from development more broadly, simply to cut emissions in the short term, especially given that energy demand is expected to more than double by 2050.
Gates is wagering on the positive impact of technology and innovation, which helped cut projected emissions by about 40 per cent over the past decade through advances in renewable energy and green technologies. However, this requires sustained progress and financing, both of which face significant challenges. While countries in the eastern hemisphere– led by China – are rapidly expanding in green technologies, cuts to subsidies for the production of electric vehicles and components will cause their sales to plummet in the US, according to General Motors.
A warmer world will present severe impediments to development and health, however. A recent Financial Times report on the impacts of rising temperatures and reproductive health warns that the growing risks to pregnant women have become a public health emergency. Drawing on 200 studies, the report documents worsening conditions for pregnant women and newborns, especially among poorer segments in low- and middle-income countries where the risks are 50 per cent higher than in richer nations.
The only practical path forward remains the one agreed upon at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh: a just energy transition coupled with financing for adaptation priorities, particularly in water, agriculture, human habitat and livelihood protection, and health. There is no inherent conflict between advancing development and climate action.
This article also appears in Arabic in Wednesday’s edition of Asharq Al-Awsat.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 6 November, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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