“Egypt, like many other countries, is facing the repercussions of climate change in various sectors, with agriculture emerging as one of the most vulnerable. Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate change,” said Mohamed Fahim, head of the Climate Change Information Centre at the Ministry of Agriculture, this week.

“Reports have indicated that crops worldwide have been affected by climate change. Olive trees in countries associated with olive production, such as Spain, Italy, and Greece, have suffered, leading to a drop in yield and a rise in the prices of olive oil. Export crops like grains and potatoes in countries such as Russia, the US, and others have also been significantly impacted,” he added.

“Egypt’s agriculture sector has not been exempt from the consequences of climate change, a global reality that requires actions to be taken to mitigate and adapt to its effects, although they cannot be completely avoided.”

According to a report published in 2022 by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) called “Towards Climate-Smart Agriculture in Egypt,” Egypt contributes only 0.63 per cent of global carbon-dioxide emissions per capita, making it one of the world’s lowest emitters. 

However, despite these low current and historical contributions, Egypt is significantly affected by climate change. The country ranks 83rd in vulnerability and 129th in preparedness according to the ND-GAIN Index produced by the University of Notre Dame in the US that evaluates 192 countries based on their exposure to climate change and readiness to respond.

The FAO report also reviewed various studies highlighting the projected impacts of climate change on Egypt, including a temperature increase of 1.6 to two degrees Celsius in the Nile Valley and Delta, leading to higher water evaporation rates and further strain on already scarce water resources.

These changes are expected to affect agricultural productivity and intensify competition for natural resources. Economic estimates reviewed in the report suggest that, in the worst-case scenario, the production of key crops could decline by 10 per cent to 18 per cent, with a potential rise in unemployment in the agricultural sector.

Additionally, consumer goods prices could increase by seven to 24 per cent.

Ahmed Al-Qenawi, a senior researcher at the Agricultural Research Centre in Cairo, said that “over the past five years, we have observed notable climate phenomena. At first, we saw the overlapping of the seasons, as we started to face long, exceptionally high-temperature summers instead of the short, mild summers we had earlier been used to in Egypt and brief, erratic winters with almost no spring or autumn.” 

“This was evident in 2008, 2016, 2018, and 2020, when we experienced early summers that affected many fruit crops, as well as tomatoes, wheat, and others. Conversely, in 2019, 2021, and 2023, the winter lingered, with cold temperatures extending into early May, affecting the flowering of fruit trees,” Al-Qenawi said.

“The second phenomenon that has been seen is temperature extremes. Winters have become unusually cold, interspersed with waves of frost, particularly in 2019 and 2021, which negatively affected fruit like bananas and mangoes that require high temperatures. In March 2020, we saw heavy rainfall during the so-called ‘Dragon Storm’ that disrupted the fruiting stages of many crops.”

“We also faced an exceptionally high-temperature summer in 2023, with successive heatwaves called ‘the iron dome.’ Similarly in 2024, we encountered other heatwaves that impacted fruit maturation.”

RISING TEMPERATURES: Farmer Yousri Al-Ashri, president of the Arimon Agricultural Association in Kafr El-Sheikh, said that he was dealing with rising temperatures and their effects on crops. 

“Ever since I learned farming from my father and worked alongside him, and even now as I farm my land, I have never seen temperatures rise to their present degree. Even with the heat and weather fluctuations we experienced last year, the temperatures were not as extreme as they were this summer, nor were crops affected so severely,” Al-Ashri said.

“Fruit and tomato yields were significantly reduced, causing their prices to spike. Even cotton, which tolerates heat better than other crops, could not withstand the excessive humidity and high temperatures.”

“Due to the rising temperatures, we have had to increase the amount and frequency of irrigation, which has significantly raised costs. Additionally, we have had to apply more fertiliser to strengthen plants and enhance their resistance to diseases and the volatile climate, further increasing costs.”

“Labour expenses have also grown, as workers are shortening their hours to avoid the heat, forcing landowners to hire twice the number of workers at double the cost to complete necessary tasks.”

“The heat and the increased humidity have led to more pests, so we have had to use more pesticide, spraying for pests more often, sometimes twice a day instead of every ten days. Among the newly appearing pests is the fall armyworm, which has attacked corn crops. Unfamiliar with this pest, farmers have had to experiment with various pesticides at additional costs to eliminate it,” Al-Ashri said.

“With the cost of growing some crops increasing by as much as 50 per cent and yields dropping at the same time, some farmers have resorted to temporary measures to limit losses, such as harvesting corn prematurely and selling it as livestock feed to avoid further costs associated with ineffective pesticide use.”

“Selling corn crops as livestock feed enables farmers to sell the leaves, stems, and other parts of the plant, instead of waiting for the corn itself to mature and then selling it for human consumption.”

Al-Ashri anticipates further losses in this year’s winter crops, but the extent of the damage can only be assessed after harvesting and accounting for the entire cost of production, following the rise in input prices and the impact of lower winter temperatures that also harm crops and reduce yields.

He predicts that some farmers will avoid planting crops with relatively long growing cycles and instead opt for shorter-cycle plants such as clover or corn that can be harvested earlier and used as livestock feed.

By cultivating crops with shorter growing periods, farmers can avoid the extreme summer or winter months to some degree. Farmers typically plant wheat in mid-November and harvest it in early May, meaning the crop can face the extreme summer heat. 

“However, if they opt for crops like clover, which can be harvested in January and sold as livestock feed, they can use the remaining months to plant a summer crop during the more moderate temperatures before the intense summer heat sets in,” Al-Ashri said.

“Such practices could affect the productivity of longer-cycle crops like strategic crops such as wheat and beans. However, the agricultural research centres could develop plant varieties that can grow and mature faster, withstand climate fluctuations, and resist associated diseases. This would reduce crop losses and could encourage farmers to plant crops with relatively long growing cycles.”

RESILIENCE: Hussein Abu Saddam, head of the Farmers Syndicate, said that “although some new seed varieties may be able to withstand some of the effects of climate change, if these intensify even resilient seeds and seedlings will be affected, reducing crop yields.”

“It is crucial to focus on efforts to fight climate change. When a plant is in the field, it will be exposed to climate change, and it will be too difficult to protect it. As a result, it is important that farmers know about likely heatwaves or cold spells in advance, so they can prepare their plants or adjust their planting schedules accordingly,” he said.

“Climate change has caused an about 40 per cent reduction in some summer crops. Tomatoes, in particular, have been severely affected, with production dropping from 20 tons per acre to just 10 or 12 tons at most, causing the market price to soar to around LE50 per kg for the first time.”

“Leafy vegetables have also been severely affected, especially since these are typically grown in greenhouses for protection. We still do not have enough greenhouses to safeguard them from climate change, as the national project to build 100,000 greenhouses has yet to be completed.” 

Al-Qenawi said that the agricultural sector will need to embrace further climate-smart practices to cope with climate fluctuations. Developing new seed varieties resistant to diseases, pests, salinity, and drought, reducing the reliance on nitrogen fertilisers, and increasing the use of organic fertilisers to minimise greenhouse-gas emissions will all be necessary, he said.

“The Climate Change Information Centre’s Early Warning Unit keeps farmers up to date on climatic variation on a weekly basis, and it may recommend actions such as using amino acids or certain compounds that enhance plant health and resistance. Expanding Egypt’s total agricultural land could also compensate for the loss of productivity of the affected crops,” he added.

“It is essential that the government support farmers by providing financial aid for agricultural needs like fertilisers, pesticides, and seeds. It should also offer training and raise awareness to support farmers. Such measures would help farmers maintain their agricultural output, thus preserving food security.” 

Egypt, a country in an arid region, has been experiencing considerable water scarcity, with 80 per cent of its water resources originating from the Nile River. This has meant that the search for alternative water sources has been prioritised, especially as climate change is causing shifts in rainfall timing and location.

“The government has already begun reusing agricultural and wastewater, and there are rainwater harvesting projects along the northern coast, as well as projects to collect and reuse floodwater in the agricultural sector,” Al-Qenawi said.

“In addition to adopting new strategies, we must also limit incorrect practices causing water loss. For example, we can help prevent water leakage by completing the lining of all the canals transporting water from the Nile to agricultural land in the Nile Valley and Delta. New water-management practices, such as drip irrigation or other modern methods, should be adopted to save water wasted through flood irrigation.” 

Fatma Abu Zeid, a climate and sustainability expert at the FAO, criticised the use of traditional flood-irrigation methods, saying that “even farmers cultivating land in desert areas rely on flood irrigation, which wastes significant amounts of water, especially given the sandy nature of the desert soils. These farmers are applying irrigation techniques that were suitable for the agricultural land of the Delta, but their use in desert areas is wrong.”

“One of the farming models that the FAO has worked on introducing and promoting among farmers is climate-smart agricultural practices, which we have presented at Farmer Field Schools. At these schools, FAO representatives engage with farmers, selecting around 20 of them to educate and apply climate-smart agriculture on the land around them,” Abu Zeid said. 

“Farmers and FAO experts collaborate on farming the land, teaching farmers how to conduct environmental soil analysis and identify pests. We then plan cultivation methods. For example, if we discover soil salinity, we may plant on raised beds to protect the plant roots from the saline soil. Additionally, we may change the irrigation method, switching from flood irrigation to drip irrigation, with the FAO also installing the necessary irrigation networks.”

“Once a farmer chooses the crop he wants to grow, agricultural experts determine the best seed variety suited to the soil and climate, ensuring a higher yield. We may opt for a different seed variety than the farmer previously used, and some farmers might resist, arguing that they have been planting the same varieties for generations. However, we explain to them that temperatures have changed, and new pests have emerged that the old varieties cannot withstand.” 

“Farmers are encouraged to monitor plant growth and compare yields. One farm that implemented climate-smart farming practices increased its wheat production to 20

ardebs, up from only eight, thanks to the use of scientific

 farming methods,” Abu Zeid said.

“Within the chosen model land, we hold regular meetings where farmers monitor how plants grow, address any issues, and compare the results with land farmed using traditional methods. Farmers learn the appropriate treatments and procedures for dealing with soil problems, such as using soil salinity repellents or choosing the correct types of pesticides.” 

Moreover, through proper practices, farmers learn the correct way to apply pesticides. For instance, some may spray pesticides indiscriminately, killing all the beneficial insects that help aerate the soil, thereby harming the crops in another way,” she noted.

In addition to raising agricultural awareness, the FAO is also committed to training and educating young people and opening up opportunities for service projects in the farming sector. 

“For example, we train groups of young people in installing irrigation networks and assist them in establishing and registering companies. We then market their services to farmers, creating a sustainable work environment. Generalising climate-smart agriculture is one of the goals of the Sustainable Agriculture 2030 Plan endorsed by the Ministry of Agriculture,” Abu Zeid concluded

* A version of this article appears in print in the 31 October, 2024 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly