Egypt qualified for next year’s Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) after coming from behind to beat Guinea 2-1 in the group stage, an accomplishment no doubt, but one which should not be blown all out of proportion.
On Wednesday last week, Serhou Guirassy had given the Guineans a 26th-minute lead but Mahmoud Trezeguet equalised for Egypt just before the break and then set up Mustafa Mohamed for the winner 11 minutes from time.
The victory saw Egypt move to 12 points after five matches, thus having an unassailable lead.
But the win must be put in its proper perspective. Group D was as easy as can be. Guinea, Ethiopia and Malawi are hardly visible on football’s world radar. Guinea could not even enjoy home field advantage; last week’s game had to be held in Marrakesh in Morocco since no stadium in Guinea had been approved by the Confederation of African Football to host international matches.
Since only the top two from the 12 groups of four go through to the finals in the Ivory Coast in January next year, it was just a formality that Egypt would get there. Egypt did have a scare in the second group game when they lost to minnows Ethiopia 2-0 which helped lead to the dismissal of Egyptian coach Ehab Galal after only three matches at the helm.
But Egypt, under new Portuguese coach Rui Vitoria, quickly righted itself the rest of the way. The team improved to the point that they qualified for AFCON 2023 with one game to spare, to be played in September.
Having done the easy part, Egypt must now focus on the bigger picture: how to win another AFCON title.
The last crown was in 2010, a lot of empty space for a country that is a record seven-time winner and last year’s losing finalists. Thirteen years is also too much for a country that has made a record 25 appearances in the tournament and at one time won the title a continental record three times in a row.
The closest Egypt got after that was reaching the finals twice, plus hosting the showpiece in 2019 but with the disastrous result of exiting in the early round of 16.
Meantime, just four days after the Guinea game, Egypt hosted South Sudan in an international friendly which Egypt won 3-0.
Pyramids FC winger Mustafa Fathi opened the scoring for the Pharaohs in the 19th minute with the prettiest goal of the lot, squeezing in the ball from the tightest of angles. Ahly forward Mahmoud “Kahraba” doubled their lead just before halftime. Trezeguet completed the comfortable victory 12 minutes after the hour-mark.
The game was billed the first ever meeting between the two national teams, as well as an AFCON warm-up for Egypt. While the historical significance of the encounter is merited, the argument that it might somehow help Egypt to AFCON title No 8 is far-fetched.
International friendlies are meant to test a team’s performance, revealing its strengths and more important its weaknesses, and consequently, how to fix the latter. With that in mind, an opponent must be better or at least as good as you in order to get a fair and honest reading of your team.
To play a friendly against a team much lower in ranking than yours only bloats confidence for no good reason and makes teams believe they are much better than what they really are. The game might lead to a win but it is in the main a hollow victory.
Which is exactly what happened on Sunday. What good did the game do for Egypt, which is 35th in the world in football, when it beat South Sudan which is at 165? It was certainly good practice for South Sudan; for Egypt it was good target practice.
South Sudan, not to confuse with Sudan which is in the middle of a deadly armed conflict, is new not just in football, but to the world. It gained its independence from the north in only 2011.
While Egypt booked their place in AFCON 2023, South Sudan is out of it, languishing at the bottom of Group G with three points, six points behind leaders Mali.
Egypt has a few world stars, including Liverpool ace Mohamed Salah and Arsenal midfielder Mohamed Al-Neni. There is also new Eintracht Frankfurt recruit Omar Marmoush, Nantes FC striker Mustafa Mohamed and Trabzonspor winger Trezeguet. South Sudan has no player of international note.
There is one good thing about playing a lesser team in a friendly in the hopes of winning the game: it pushes the winner country higher in the FIFA and African rankings so that when the seedings of groups are announced, whether for next year’s AFCON or the 2026 World Cup, teams with higher rankings are spared from facing tough opponents in their respective groups.
The victory marked the seventh consecutive win under Vitoria since he took charge of the team in July 2022, the best start for an Egyptian national team manager since 2000.
But the hope is that Vitoria, who spent more than three years with Benfica, winning two consecutive Primeira Liga titles, is not fooled. He said he would use the game to give new players some playing time, which he did to an extent. It should not signify anything more.
In the Ivory Coast, Egypt will be aiming for another title but it will not be able to launch a serious bid unless and until it ups its game but it can’t do so while challenging friendly teams much lesser in strength.
Already, at the time of writing, 15 teams have qualified for the AFCON, including the very best past and present champions: Algeria, hosts Ivory Coast, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia, and defending champions Senegal. To get past these super teams will need a super effort.
The results so far under Vitoria are good but given the relative weakness of the opposition, the adjective cannot be more than that.
There is no need for Egypt — its players, fans, coach and experts — to flex muscles, beat chests or in general, get carried away for entering AFCON 2023.
The job is not finished. It has only just begun.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 22 June, 2023 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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