On Monday, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi will inaugurate COP27. The conference on climate change comes at a time of growing concern over the state of the global environment and at a time when political and security challenges are consuming international attention and budgets at the expense of measures to manage climate change.
A recently issued UN report warned that failure to reduce emissions and commit to adaptation and mitigation measures will lead to the Earth’s temperature rise by 2.1-2.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. The report added that “countries around the world are failing to live up to their commitments to fight climate change,” warning of a future marked by greater flooding, wildfires, drought, heatwaves and species extinction. The report noted that only 26 of 193 countries that agreed to step up their climate actions at COP26 last year in Glasgow have upgraded their pledges.
According to the UN climate experts who wrote the report, by 2030 emissions need to have fallen by 45 per cent compared to 2010 levels in order to meet the 2015 Paris climate deal’s 1.5 degrees Celsius goal. They noted that without strict commitment to executing ambitious adaptation and mitigation measures emissions will continue to increase. In recent press statements, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the current trajectory of countries’ climate commitments is “catastrophic”.
“We must absolutely start reducing emissions now,” he warned.
Egyptian officials working on COP27 have underlined the need for the world to act without delay, with Minister of Environment and COP27 Coordinator Yasmine Fouad stating that the deliberations and conclusions of COP27 will be of crucial importance. What the world agrees to do in Sharm El-Sheikh will make-or-break the future of the planet, she said.
Wael Abul-Magd, personal representative of the president to COP27, stressed that the world needs to agree to honour its pledges to finance adaptation and mitigation measures, while Mohamed Nasr, chief Egyptian negotiator at COP27, said that current pledges should not be seen as an end but as a starting point in investing to reduce global warming and face up to the impacts of climate change.
The impacts of climate change are most devastating for developing countries which have contributed least to global warming. Emad El-Din Adly, general coordinator of the Arab Net for Environment and Sustainable Development, points out that as the biggest polluters, developed countries need to shoulder their responsibilities and help developing countries manage the devastating impact of climate change. Arab countries, he said, need well over $400 billion to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation plans by 2030.
Mahmoud Mohieldin, UN climate change high-level champion for Egypt, has estimated the amount allocated for climate adaptation for Africa needs to be increased six-fold from the current $11.4 billion.
“We all know the top 20 economies are responsible for 80 per cent of emissions,” US President Joe Biden’s Climate Envoy John Kerry noted before calling on the richest countries to strengthen their pledges at COP27.
The energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and consequent Western sanctions against Russia is challenging decarbonisation measures and adaptation budgets. Skyrocketing inflation, higher interest rates, and a looming global economic recession could be used by developed countries as excuses to renege on their climate change promises. Since last year, many developed countries in Europe and elsewhere have reversed the decommissioning of coal-fired power stations in the face of power shortages and rising natural gas prices. Projects to build more offshore wind farms have stalled, and existing turbines are producing less power due to changing weather patterns.
At a time when some policymakers openly argue that to increase economic activity to either avoid a recession or make it shorter is necessary to put aside climate change “constraints”, COP27 could not be more important.
Given the current state of global affairs, environment expert Samir Tantawi argues COP27 has to find ways to secure two deliverables — finance and implementation. For Sharm El-Sheikh to succeed, it will need to formulate ambitious plans that can be put in practice under the current circumstances. “Execution is the key word now,” he said.
National governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now, and then implement them within the next eight years, says Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change. During COP26 in Glasgow countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their climate plans, yet only 24 out of 193 nations submitted updated plans to the UN, a figure that Stiell says is “disappointing”.
“Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change.
“COP27 is the moment when global leaders can regain momentum on climate change, make the necessary pivot from negotiations to implementation and get moving on the massive transformation that must take place throughout all sectors of society to address the climate emergency,” he said.
Egyptian officials are hoping that the high level of attendance at COP27 is a sign that the world will move forward on the execution of plans to face up to the catastrophic scenarios of continued global heating. They say more than 80 countries are expected to be represented at Sharm El-Sheikh at the level of head of state. Leaders expected to be present include US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italy’s newly elected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Arab leaders including Abdelmedjid Teboune, the current chair of the Arab Summit, the secretaries-general of the UN, the African Union, and the Arab League, and senior EU officials. Africa and South America are also expected to be represented at the highest levels.
Egyptian officials stress, however, that what matters most is the presence of leaders from the worst affected countries who can speak about how climate change is directly impacting their peoples, including in terms of food security and health risks.
Faced with a growing domestic political crisis, new UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who was supposed to hand over the presidency of COP to Egypt, has announced he will miss COP27. Sunak was criticised for his decision which has been qualified by the opposition and environmental activists as “a failure of leadership”. The UK’s Environment Secretary Therese Coffey is planning to attend along with Alok Sharma, president of COP26.
Egyptian officials have played down the issue of UK representation, insisting that London has a firm commitment to work closely with Egypt on the international environmental agenda. Egypt, they said, is committed to work with all partners to help move forward with realistic plans to reduce global warming and contain the impacts of climate change.
A version of this article appears in print in the 3 November, 2022 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Short link: