Both Israel and Hamas are under pressure from outgoing US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump to reach a deal before the Jan. 20 inauguration. But the sides have come close before, only to have talks collapse over various disagreements.
The latest round of negotiations has bogged down over the names of captives to be released in a first phase, according to Israeli, Egyptian and Hamas officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing ongoing negotiations.
Israel wants assurances that the captives are alive, while Hamas says that after months of heavy fighting, it isn't sure who is alive or dead.
Other hurdles remain.
The first phase, expected to last for six to eight weeks, would also include a halt in fighting, a release of Palestinian prisoners and a surge in aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, according to the officials. The last phase would include the release of any remaining captives, an end to the war, and talks on reconstruction and who will govern Gaza going forward.
“If we don’t get it across the finish line in the next two weeks, I’m confident that it will get to completion at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Seoul on Monday.
Here’s a closer look at the key issues holding up a deal:
The release of captives from Gaza
Israel says about 100 captives remain in Gaza.
The first batch of captives to be released is expected to be made up mostly of women, older people and people with medical conditions, according to the Israeli, Egyptian and Hamas officials.
On Monday, a Hamas official shared with AP a list of 34 names of captives it said were slated for release. An Egyptian official confirmed the list had been the focus of recent discussions.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the names were from a list Israel had submitted months ago.
A second Hamas official on Monday released a list of 14 names the group claimed Israel had removed from consideration after they were approved by Hamas and substituted with other names. Israel did not respond for a request for comment, but it has pronounced the 14 people dead.
A Hamas official, meanwhile, said that “no one knows” the conditions of all of the captives. Hamas officials have said that due to the war, they cannot provide a full accounting until there is a truce.
Since the war began, over 45,800 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, mostly women and children.
Pausing the war or ending it?
Families of captives reacted angrily to reports of the phased approach, saying the government should instead be pursuing a deal that releases all the captives at once. They say time is running out to bring people home safely.
“This morning, I and everyone in Israel woke up and discovered that the state of Israel has put together a Schindler's List — 34 people who will be able to hug their families again, and 66 others whose fate will be sealed,” said Yotam Cohen, whose brother Nimrod, an Israeli soldier held captive, did not appear on the published list.
Netanyahu has said he supports a partial deal that pauses the war, but he has rejected Hamas' demands for a full Israeli withdrawal that would end the war. Netanyahu has vowed to continue fighting until he achieves “total victory” — including the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities.
Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Hamas. But the group continues to stage attacks in Gaza and to fire rockets into Israel. That could portend an open-ended war that could drag on for months or years.
A grassroots Israeli group representing many captives' families, said it was time for a comprehensive deal.
The release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel
As part of the deal, Israel is expected to free hundreds of imprisoned Palestinians.
Israel has a history of large-scale prisoner releases, and hundreds were freed in the November 2023 deal. But the sides have disagreed over the exact number and names of the prisoners to be freed. Hamas wants high-profile prisoners included. Israeli officials have ruled out the release of Marwan Barghouti, who tops Hamas' wish list.
Netanyahu's governing coalition includes hardliners who oppose such releases, with some even pledging to quit the government if too many concessions are made. They point to a 2011 prisoner release that included the former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
The return of Palestinians to their homes in Gaza
The war has displaced an estimated 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, according to UN estimates, with the hard-hit northern sector of the territory largely emptied of its prewar population.
During the first phase of the developing deal, Israel is expected to withdraw troops from Palestinian population centers and allow some of the displaced to return home. But the extent of the pullback and the number of people allowed to return must still be worked out, the officials say.
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