Will Trump’s Gaza plan bring peace after two years of Israeli war and broken ceasefires?

Mohamed Hatem , Monday 6 Oct 2025

US President Donald Trump on Friday promised “peace in the Middle East” after Hamas gave partial approval and Israel offered conditional agreement to his 20-point Gaza plan. But after two years of Israeli war and failed ceasefires, peace still feels distant.

Gaza US
Protesters march during the "Rise Up for Gaza" international day of action on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. AFP

 

Trump's statement on Friday - that Hamas's acceptance of his Gaza plan marked a breakthrough in peace, and that Israel "must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the hostages out safely and quickly" - comes after nearly two years of relentless war, broken truces, and Israeli war crimes against Palestinians in Gaza.

The US president was responding to an earlier Friday statement by Hamas, in which the group confirmed its readiness to release all Israeli captives under the 20-point plan. The Palestinian group stated it was "ready … to immediately enter … into negotiations to discuss the details."

The following day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declared it would "work in full co-operation with the President and his team", but history suggests otherwise: whenever diplomacy approaches, Israel intensifies its bombardment.

Since October 2023, every ceasefire effort has followed the same grim pattern: mediation, captive-exchange proposals, brief pauses, Israeli violations, and renewed war.

Below is a timeline of ceasefire negotiations and Israeli violations.

October 2023: war begins, siege declared
 

7 October 2023: After 16 years of blockade and repeated Israeli wars that have devastated Gaza and confined its people to what rights groups call an "open-air prison", Hamas and other Palestinian fighters broke through the enclave's barriers and launched a major attack on the Gaza Division, which is subordinated to the Israeli Southern Command, and other border settlements in the Gaza Envelope.

Around 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken captive as Israeli forces responded by pushing the fighters back into Gaza.

8 October 2023: Israel declared a "state of war" and responded with overwhelming force. Within hours, it unleashed thousands of bombs across Gaza, striking homes, mosques, churches, and hospitals.

9 October 2023: Then Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant escalated further, announcing what he called a "complete siege" on Gaza, cutting off electricity, fuel, food and water to more than two million people.

10 October 2023: Hamas's military spokesperson Abu Obaida said no negotiations over captives would begin while Israel continued its bombardment.

13 October 2023: Qatar's Emir informed then US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Hamas was willing to release some captives if Israel paused its airstrikes. Israel refused.

27 October 2023: Israel launched a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza, expanding its assault across the north of the Strip.

From the outset, Israel wielded overwhelming force while refusing to engage seriously unless negotiations were entirely on its own terms.

November 2023: first ceasefire, rapid collapse
 

8 November 2023: Hamas offered to release 10–15 captives in exchange for a three-day humanitarian pause. Netanyahu rejected the proposal.

13 November 2023: Hamas proposed freeing up to 70 women and children in return for a five-day truce and the release of 275 Palestinian women and minors from Israeli prisons.

21–22 November 2023: Mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the US, a four-day ceasefire was agreed: 50 Israeli captives for 150 Palestinian prisoners, plus limited humanitarian aid.

24 November – 1 December 2023: The truce was extended several times, lasting seven days in total. More than 100 Israeli captives and 240 Palestinian detainees were freed. On 1 December, Israel resumed attacks, accusing Hamas of violations; Hamas said Israel had broken the terms first but was ready to resume talks.

The brief truce became another casualty of Israeli intransigence. Israel used the lull to regroup and resume bombing with renewed intensity.

December 2023 – March 2024: diplomacy under fire
 

11 December 2023: Israel expressed willingness to discuss a humanitarian ceasefire while continuing military operations. Hamas insisted there could be no talks until the bombing stopped.

31 March 2024: Negotiations resumed in Cairo, mediated by Egypt and Qatar.

Throughout this period, Israel tightened its siege and restricted aid, ensuring that diplomatic efforts unfolded under continuing bombardment.

May 2024: Biden's three-phase plan
 

2–6 May 2024: Delegations from Egypt, Qatar, Hamas, and the US (led by then-CIA Director William Burns) met in Cairo. Netanyahu declined to send an Israeli team.

6 May 2024: Hamas accepted a three-stage plan calling for a 42-day ceasefire, phased Israeli withdrawal, prisoner-exchange agreements and negotiations towards "sustainable calm".

31 May 2024: Then US President Joe Biden publicly presented the plan's phases, saying it was "time for this war to end". The three phases include:

  1. A six-week ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal from populated areas, and exchange of captives for prisoners.

  2. A permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli pull-out.

  3. Reconstruction of Gaza and the return of remains.

10 June 2024: The UN formally endorsed the plan, but Israel failed to implement it. The proposal was approved by the UN Security Council in Resolution 2735, with 14 votes in favour and Russia abstaining.

Israel's refusal to implement a UN-endorsed proposal underscored how its military policy, not diplomacy, dictates the course of the war.

August 2024: Doha talks
 

15–16 August 2024: Talks resumed in Doha with participation from Israel, Hamas, Qatar, Egypt, and the US. Mediators described the discussions as "constructive", but Hamas criticised the proposals as biased towards Israel. Key disputes included the scope of Israeli withdrawal, the release of prisoners, and the mechanisms governing future hostilities.

Despite mediation, Israel's overwhelming leverage again set the limits of progress.

November 2024: Qatar suspends mediation
 

9 November 2024: Amid stalled talks, Qatar suspended its mediation role, citing the lack of good-faith engagement from both sides but pointing to Israel's "hardline political constraints" as the key obstacle.

By late 2024, Israel's so-called ceasefire diplomacy was exposed as little more than a strategy to rearm and reset its military campaign in Gaza.

December 2024 – January 2025: Trump steps in
 

7 December 2024: Qatar announced renewed talks, this time coordinated with the incoming Trump administration.

January 2025: Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in the region, working with Egyptian and Qatari officials.

15 January 2025: A three-phase ceasefire and captive-exchange agreement was announced.

While hailed as a diplomatic revival, many doubted Israel's commitment to the plan given its history of broken truces.

January – March 2025: second ceasefire, Israeli betrayal
 

19 January 2025: The ceasefire took effect with 90 Palestinian prisoners released on the first day of swaps with Israel. In Phase 1, Israel and Hamas exchanged 33 Israeli captives for around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. The truce also required Israel to withdraw from densely populated areas and allow increased humanitarian aid into Gaza.

1 March 2025: As the first 42-day phase expired, Israel stalled, pushing to extend Phase 1 to delay discussions on withdrawal and a permanent end to its war on Gaza. Hamas, warning that Israel was reneging on agreed terms, demanded an immediate transition to Phase 2, which called for negotiations on a complete Israeli withdrawal and a lasting ceasefire.

2 March 2025: Israel imposed its harshest blockade yet, halting all humanitarian aid to Gaza under the pretext of pressuring Hamas to extend Phase 1 of the truce — demanding more captive releases without offering any guarantees of withdrawal or a permanent end to the war.

18 March 2025: Israel broke the ceasefire with overnight strikes that killed hundreds, many of them in their sleep. Official tallies reported more than 400 killed, while independent counts put the toll at over 850, including many women and children, making it one of the deadliest days of Israel's genocidal war on Gaza.

Israel's unilateral violation of the ceasefire and stalling on talks to end the war confirmed a recurring reality: Israel views ceasefires not as pathways to peace, but as opportunities to prepare for the next wave of destruction.

September – October 2025: Israel's Qatar strike and Trump's Gaza plan
 

9 September 2025: Israel launched an airstrike targeting a Hamas delegation meeting in the Qatari capital, Doha, as they were discussing the latest US ceasefire proposal. Six people were killed, including a Qatari security officer. The attack struck at the heart of diplomatic efforts and underscored that Israel remains willing to bomb negotiating rooms.

15 September 2025: In response, Arab and Islamic states convened an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha to condemn the Israeli attack, issue a joint communiqué denouncing Israel's aggression, and reiterate support for Gaza and Qatari sovereignty. The summit introduced, for the first time, a series of punitive measures against Israel, urging member states to review diplomatic and economic relations with Israel and initiate legal proceedings against it.

20–25 September 2025: Mounting regional pressure following the summit prompted Washington to accelerate diplomatic efforts, resulting in new discussions between the Trump administration, Egypt, and Qatar regarding a ceasefire framework.

29 September 2025: Trump and Netanyahu unveiled a 20-point plan for Gaza, calling for an immediate ceasefire, the release of captives within 72 hours, a phased Israeli withdrawal, and post-war administration by a technocratic authority under international supervision. Hamas would be excluded from governance, while its leaders would be granted amnesty upon the group's disarmament.

1–3 October 2025: Egypt, Qatar and Turkey urged Hamas to accept the plan. Hamas agreed to release all captives, both living and deceased, while affirming "its readiness to immediately enter, through the mediators, into negotiations to discuss the details." President Trump responded positively, declaring that Hamas was "ready for a lasting PEACE" and demanding that Israel "immediately stop the bombing of Gaza."

4 October 2025: Netanyahu's office announced that Israel was "preparing to immediately implement the first phase" in coordination with Trump's plan. Yet airstrikes continued across Gaza, which remains under total siege, with famine spreading and its population trapped between bombardment and starvation.

The present moment
 

Trump's positive response to Hamas's agreement, saying the group was "ready for a lasting PEACE" — a reaction that reportedly stunned Netanyahu — may mark the most significant diplomatic overture in months.

Yet Gaza's history warns that every "breakthrough" has too often been buried beneath the rubble of the subsequent bombardment.

Israel's refusal to halt its attacks, even while professing co-operation, exposes the core contradiction at the heart of this war: when diplomacy threatens its dominance, Israel turns again to force. Whether Trump's plan can succeed depends less on Hamas's willingness, which it has repeatedly demonstrated, and more on whether Israel is finally prepared to end its war on Gaza.

Israel's deadliest-ever war on Gaza has killed at least 67,000 Palestinians and injured nearly 170,000, most of them women and children, according to Gaza's health ministry. Independent estimates suggest the actual toll is far higher.

For now, Gaza lies in ruins, its people displaced and besieged, while the world debates semantics between war crimes and genocide — and Israel decides whether to keep bombing or choose peace.

 

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