Hours after a hype of optimism that came with the late evening Friday announcement of Hamas agreement to a detailed deal on its disarmament and a parallel Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, scepticism resurfaced.
This was not only because Israel failed to reciprocate Hamas' move, which was described by many capitals as a major development. It was also because Israel failed to suspend its strikes on Palestinians in Gaza, which it has systematically carried out since the October 2025 signing of the ceasefire deal in Sharm El-Sheikh to end the two-year genocidal Israeli war.
While the key question in the hours following the 30 July announcement focused on how the mediators, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar, managed to persuade Hamas to show flexibility on the disarmament plan despite its previous rejection, which was based on Israel's continued aggression, the focus soon shifted to whether this flexibility on Hamas' part would mean anything for Israel.
A senior expert on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with years of experience in negotiating previous Palestinian-Israeli agreements, Mohamed Eldawiry said the “issue is far too complex for the optimism-versus-scepticism scenario.”
"Actually, this is not just a very complex situation but also a very fluid one that keeps shifting," he said.
“It is very clear right from the onset that Israel is trying to offer its own explanation of the text of the deal to make it compatible with what Israel wants rather than with what the deal stipulates; this is going to make things more complicated,” he stated.
However, he added, Egypt, "which is not just a mediator when it comes to the Palestinian cause, which has always been and remains a crucial issue for Cairo," is keeping a very close watch, "in cooperation with the important work being done by the other mediators," to give the deal the greatest possible chance of success.
"It is important to say and remember that the deal did not come overnight; rather, it is the outcome of intensive and hard work in which Egypt was deeply involved in cooperation with both Turkey and Qatar," Eldawiry said.
“There have been several meetings that continued to take place even during the most difficult moments of the US-Israeli war on Iran that started late February,” he added.
Hosted by Cairo, he explained, these meetings brought together Hamas, the other Palestinian factions, Nickolay Mladenov, the representative of the Board of Peace, concerned American diplomats, and the other mediators. The objective, he said, was to reach the text of this deal, which is designed to move the process towards implementing the second phase of the peace plan sponsored by US President Donald Trump last October.
In October 2025, a three-phase ceasefire deal was signed in Sharm El-Sheikh. While each phase was supposed to have been implemented in under two months, Israeli procrastination and continued aggression in Gaza have blocked the process.
Phase one of the deal was intended to bring a complete halt to military operations, secure the Israeli withdrawal from key corridors and densely populated areas, and allow Palestinians to return to their neighbourhoods. It also stipulated the release of Israeli hostages who have been kept in Gaza since the beginning of the war on 7 October 2023 in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Moreover, it included the entry of sufficient humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza, most of whom have been living in very harsh conditions.
Apart from the prisoner swap, Israel has not honoured its commitments. This has blocked the implementation of phase two, which includes the full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which has been free of direct Israeli occupation since 2005, a permanent ceasefire, and the establishment of a new non-Hamas administration in Gaza, with Hamas decommissioning its weapons. This was to be followed by phase three, focusing on Gaza's reconstruction.
The deal announced on 30 July allows for the implementation of phase two.
“The most crucial issue now is whether Israel will commit to implement this deal, especially as we move closer towards the Israeli [legislative] elections with all the [expected] manifestations of radical and extremist policies,” Eldawiry cautioned.
"Clearly, Israel will manoeuvre and will engage in a process of interpreting the text," he said. "This is why there is a crucial role for the US in making sure that Israel honours its commitments, just as the Palestinian side would honour its part of the deal," he added.
If Israel failed to honour its side of the deal, Eldawiry warned, the current catastrophic situation in Gaza would remain unchanged, to the detriment of the Palestinians living in horrific conditions there and of regional stability.
During his career as a chief negotiator on matters of national and regional security, Eldawiry worked extensively on Palestinian-Israeli relations, especially in Gaza. He is credited with securing one of the most difficult prisoner swap deals between Hamas and Israel in October 2011, which led to the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including Hamas leader Yehya Al-Sinwar, who was later killed by Israel during the war.
With such extensive insight into Israeli affairs, Eldawiry believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's top priority today is to secure re-election for a seventh term in office to avoid the consequences of the legal charges he faces and their unpredictable outcome. Israel is due to hold legislative elections on 27 October.
Consequently, Eldawiry said, "I think that in the lead-up to the elections, Netanyahu will opt for very extremist policies."
This, he added, would apply not only to Gaza but also to the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, "which are all files on which the Israeli right is in agreement."
"Actually, it is not just the Israeli right that is on the same page when it comes to these issues, but all the political parties set to contest the elections, especially Israel's former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, of the Yashar Party, who is Netanyahu's main challenger in the next elections," he argued.
Whether this means that Israel will not move an inch in implementing the deal remains highly speculative, with some arguing that Netanyahu may take limited steps to accommodate Trump. However, as Eldawiry argued, "this deal is designed around reciprocated implementation."
“If one side fails to honour its side of the deal, the other side would simply refrain from doing its part as well,” he stated. This, he said, would mean the “resumption of tension and maybe a highly unpredictable explosion.”
One of the key questions surrounding the truce in Gaza concerns its duration. Eldawiry agreed that Hamas is keen on a long-term truce and that this is clearly the direction that should be pursued. However, he argued, "the key point now is to move ahead with implementing the deal that has been reached to move towards long-term stability and a political horizon that should lead to the two-state solution."
A time-limited deal, he added, might not serve the purpose of negotiations aimed at Palestinian statehood, which should begin as soon as possible. Focusing too heavily on a long-term truce is not helpful to the core objective of negotiating a Palestinian state.
“We cannot compromise the key objective of the Palestinian cause or allow the matter to be reduced to a truce," he said. This is why, he added, the latest Gaza deal does not specify the duration of the truce.
The deal announced by US President Trump as a major success stipulates the entry of the civil management committee into Gaza, something Israel has blocked for months. It also provides for a parallel process of a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and Hamas' commitment to lay down its arms under Palestinian supervision. Implementation of the deal is to be overseen by a verification committee made up of mediators and guarantors.
Speaking hours before the announcement of the scheduled Palestinian legislative elections on 28 November, Eldawiry said this deal cannot, by itself, substitute for inter-Palestinian dialogue "to formulate a comprehensive vision for the future, both internally and externally."
"Such a vision should have the consent of all Palestinian factions, with the legislative and presidential elections forming an integral part of it," he added. He argued that "all of the above should be conducted under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority, which should provide the legitimate framework" for all plans and agreements concerning Gaza.
Meanwhile, Eldawiry warned that considerable attention should be devoted to the situation in the West Bank, which has seen escalating Israeli actions. In recent weeks, Israeli settlers have intensified their attacks on Palestinians with no protest from the Israeli authorities, who have, in turn, continued expanding illegal settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories. On all fronts, "time is of the essence," he said.
"Today, Egypt, along with the other mediators, has secured the conclusion of this important deal. The issue now is to secure its implementation by Israel," he added.
Short link: