Cairo The Capital Of Egypt. AFP
The report expects Egypt’s economy to hit around $10.4 trillion in real terms by 2075, positioning it ahead of traditional industrial powers such as Germany and Mexico in global rankings.
Egypt’s strategic location linking Africa, Asia, and Europe, along with sustained reforms in energy, transport, and the service sector, is expected to underpin this transformation.
However, Goldman Sachs cautioned that the country must address water scarcity and skills development to sustain long-term growth. Without these reforms, its full economic potential could remain constrained.
In September, Egypt launched the National Economic Development Narrative, which charts the country's performance through 2030. The plan prioritizes the energy, agriculture, tourism, manufacturing, and ICT sectors to boost the country’s real GDP growth to seven percent, exceeding pre-pandemic levels and creating 1.5 million job opportunities by 2030.
Recently, S&P Global upgraded Egypt’s credit rating from B- to B with a stable outlook for the first time in seven years, citing ongoing economic reforms, improving growth prospects, and stronger external accounts.
Moreover, international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Egypt’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, citing stronger foreign reserves, a narrowing current account deficit, and sustained support from Gulf and multilateral partners.
Emerging markets lead global shift
The Goldman Sachs forecast paints a picture of a reordered global economy dominated by emerging markets. China, India, and Indonesia are projected to take the top three spots, while countries such as Pakistan, Nigeria, and Egypt join the top tier for the first time.
China is expected to remain the largest economy by 2075, with a projected GDP of $57 trillion, followed by India at $52.5 trillion. The United States, while still among the world’s largest economies, is expected to fall to third place with a GDP of $51.5 trillion, as slower population growth and political divisions weigh on its momentum.
Rise of Pakistan and Nigeria
Among the biggest risers, Pakistan is forecast to climb to sixth place with a GDP of $12.3 trillion, driven by its young workforce and strategic geographic position.
Nigeria is expected to become Africa’s leading economy, with a GDP of $13.1 trillion, supported by its demographics and energy potential, though infrastructure and institutional weaknesses remain obstacles.
A global economy redefined
By 2075, Brazil, Germany, and Mexico are also projected to feature among the top ten, while advanced economies are expected to face challenges from demographic decline, technological disruption, and environmental pressures.
Goldman Sachs affirmed that the path to such growth for emerging markets depends heavily on sound policy frameworks, institutional reform, and human capital investment.
For Egypt and its peers, the report underscores that growth in size must be matched by improvements in living standards, productivity, and sustainability to ensure long-term prosperity.
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